|
OP just killed all my hopes for a key...
QQ
|
Posted byTanzfete#0669on Aug 11, 2011, 1:14:12 PM
|
"
Ana wrote:
The thing is that 10 times bigger chance is temporary. It's pretty clear from the name of the thread Chris started: "Forum users are now TEN TIMES more likely to get into Beta for now"
This could change as soon as tomorrow and everybody will have equal chance again.
i hope that they scale the server and will all can join
IGN: Blink
|
Posted bySoulFiX#2726on Aug 11, 2011, 1:18:13 PMBanned
|
"
Fourier wrote:
Why, hello there!
I calculated a few probabilities for your enjoyment.
Assuming there are 50,000 registered accounts, that forum posters have ten times more chances of being picked for the beta and that new players are picked every 10 minutes, we have these basic probabilities:
- Probability you will be picked on the next tick:
1/50,000 if you don't post of the forums;
1/5,000 if you do.
- Probability you will be picked today:
2.84% if you post on the forums;
0.284% if you don't.
- Probability you will be picked this week:
18.26% if you post on the forums;
2% if you don't.
- Probability you will be picked in the next two weeks:
33.18% if you post on the forums;
3.95% if you don't.
- Probability you will be picked this month:
55.36% if you post on the forums;
7.75% if you don't.
- Probability you will be picked in the next 3 months:
91.1% if you post on the forums;
21.49% if you don't.
This is, of course, assuming the 10-minute timer won't change over the next 3 months, which is highly unlikely.
The underlying math:
I'll explain how I obtained the values for the probability of getting picked today, if you're a forum poster.
We have a series of 144 trials, with a 1/5,000 probability of success on each trial. Then we are looking for the probability of NOT having 0 successes. In other words, let X be the number of times you will be picked today. Then we are looking for P(X>0). X follows a binomial distribution of parameters 144 and 1/5,000. So we're looking for 1-P(X=0), which, in this case, is 2.85%.
eh so why is there a difference if you are a forum user and if not? Didnt quite get that part
|
Posted bySxing#3205on Aug 11, 2011, 1:19:06 PM
|
|
You forgot that new accounts are made all time, and that is difficult to calculate odds from changing values
Gyntti2 @ d2jsp.org
|
Posted byGyntti#5916on Aug 11, 2011, 1:22:26 PM
|
|
+probability
|
Posted byOverpower#5074on Aug 11, 2011, 1:23:55 PM
|
"
Drb00 wrote:
Its summer why are you doing math now school doesn't start for at least another month.
LoL so true
|
Posted byDudesky#4427on Aug 11, 2011, 1:24:08 PM
|
|
+probability
|
Posted bylllViruslll#4451on Aug 11, 2011, 1:25:06 PM
|
|
Diminishing variable (for popularity and account creation) was not included in the formula, this would probably offset all your % estimates greatly.
This whole math system is flawed as it acts as if this is a waiting list, those currently on the list will eventually get in, which is not the case. Your chances of joining are incrementally increased overtime, but ever slightly. Still less then a 2% chance after 3 months that you will get beta access.
|
Posted byBeros#7288on Aug 11, 2011, 1:26:05 PM
|
"
Sheekz wrote:
according to the math, you're going to.
|
Posted byTeej#2108on Aug 11, 2011, 1:27:06 PM
|
"
Gyntti wrote:
You forgot that new accounts are made all time, and that is difficult to calculate odds from changing values
I pointed that out already a couple times through the thread.
I have no way to measure how fast the population is growing. But I do know that every 10 minutes, a player is taken out of the pool (by being selected). So I'm kind of assuming there's ~1 new member/10 minutes, so it evens out.
Of course, this is all a rough estimate.
Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League)
FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League)
HC Ladder Rank: 7
|
Posted byFourier#4143on Aug 11, 2011, 1:27:33 PM
|
