[Math] Probability of entering Beta

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matt129103 wrote:

50,000 users is quite a lot. I don't think they have that many.

I took this information from another thread, I think there's a way to view a member list on the site, but I can't find it myself.

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Kassandra_Stark wrote:

Yes but if 50.000 users are registered and all of them post into the forum in a growing number, the 10 times more chance is getting nulled, since than more and more people have a greater chance.

True, I'm also not accounting for the fluctuations in population count. i.e. people that have been selected for beta are "removed" from the pool. Then again, more people are registering. How it evens out, I'm not quite sure, so I just assume it remains at 50,000. Likewise, I have no way to measure how the forum poster population evolves through time, or where it's at right now. :-/ So, yeah, it's just a rough estimate.

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NoiTaTuM wrote:

It's funny because your username is FOURIER.
You make me remember the Fourier series to decompose any periodic function into a sum of oscillating functions.
That's why you made this thread i'm right? :P

Hah, math > all. Actually I'm studying Fourier transforms, that are a generalized form of his series. Pretty powerful stuff, with wavelets and all. Not really linked with probabilities though. :P

I will have this beta! Numbers be damned!

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Fourier wrote:

Hah, math > all. Actually I'm studying Fourier transforms, that are a generalized form of his series. Pretty powerful stuff, with wavelets and all. Not really linked with probabilities though. :P

Obviously it's not related, but what I'm trying to say is: "What I Expect from someone who is named Fourier is a Math thread"
PD: Math > All.

you are also assuming the lotto will continue for 3 months ....

They can stop the lotto anytime they want ie when they reach 10k beta account selected for example.

i cant wait that long :(

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deoxys wrote:

you are also assuming the lotto will continue for 3 months ....

They can stop the lotto anytime they want ie when they reach 10k beta account selected for example.

Yes but 3 months at 1 person/10 minutes, you'll have ~12k people.

That's why I stopped there. Of course, it's just a rough estimate, so people stop staring at the timer.

thx for doing the math :)

thought about doing it for myself already bu since you've done it for all of us.. ^^

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cwood154 wrote:

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Fourier wrote:

- Probability you will be picked on the next tick:
1/50,000 if you don't post of the forums;
1/5,000 if you do.

Not exactly. Chris said forum users are 10 times more likely to get invited (from whatever the previous value was) not compared to non forum users.

5000 * 10 = 50 000...

well, eventually we will all play it regardless if it's the beta or official release.

3 months CBT , are you kidding? 8(