[Math] Probability of entering Beta
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i thought about doing a little web app the show people the chances to get in before you posted this ;-)
in general i like the idea with the timer, but it has one mayor flaw: playing with friends. normally if me and my friends sign up for a beta at once, we all get picked or none, witch is fine by me, but not with this system. the deffenitly should give elected testers extra keys for their friends(like most betas do by the way) since party play should be the name of the game. |
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" I assume people register on the website at approximately the same rate as people get picked (i.e. 1 new member every 10 minutes.) Of course, I have no way to measure this, and the amount of people registering will probably start growing exponentially soon. These numbers are just an estimate. Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League)
FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League) HC Ladder Rank: 7 |
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" They will probably give out more keys eventually. The beta just started yesterday, so they're being careful not to stress the servers too much all of a sudden. They want a steady increase. As they gain in stability, they'll let more players join in. Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League)
FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League) HC Ladder Rank: 7 |
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" New people are registering as old people are getting picked, and new lurkers are posting as old posters get picked. He's saying that for every beta key given, roughly one new person comes in to replace the person taken out of the lottery. The numbers Fourier's given are a huge approximation (he's admitted that on more than one occasion), since there's no way of knowing the rate of new members to beta keys given, or when or how they'll change the countdown timer. |
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So it's sitting, waiting, wishing huh?
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With constant registrations, there is a possibility that you will never get picked. Ever.
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" Yes, especially if registrations start going up exponentially as word gets out that the beta has begun. But worry not, there will be an open beta phase.. and.. maybe, maybe! Just maybe, the game might actually be released some day. Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League)
FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League) HC Ladder Rank: 7 |
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The question is how long will the closed beta last?
Pain keeps you alive. Others` pain, that is.
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probability of gettin in 0%
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Some betas only last a couple days
Others a couple months but waiting for a key feels like an eternity haha |
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