[Math] Probability of entering Beta

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Karpiq wrote:

with my luck i won't get to the CBT, so u can count one person less ;p

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Fourier wrote:

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Denog wrote:

Chris told me that the system is even more specific.

"basically there's a small bias towards older people, and a large bias towards anyone who has made any post on the forum."

That's what he sent me but I find it hard to believe because most people selected have 0 posts or have joined a while ago and not returned to the site.

Because there are FAR more people who have not posted on the forums.

Even if you have, say, 10x more chances to be picked, there are still 10x more people who haven't posted on the forums. So 90% of the random pool is filled with players who haven't posted. Ultimately, even with those odds, your chances of being picked aren't that high.

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Fourier wrote:

- Probability you will be picked in the next 3 months:
91.1% if you post on the forums;
21.49% if you don't.

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Wogasm wrote:

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Fourier wrote:

- Probability you will be picked in the next 3 months:
91.1% if you post on the forums;
21.49% if you don't.

Well I guess this makes me feel a little better...

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Kayze wrote:

Forgot to take into account that every time someone receives a beta key, your chances increase the next tick, as there will only be 49,999 people wanting a key. (assuming no one else signs up)

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wildshibby wrote:

So if I post more I get higher chance getting an invite?