[Math] Probability of entering Beta
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Ehh, even the rough numbers you're basing this on are kind of flawed. You're placing forum posters and non-posters into completely segregated groups and not accounting for the other in the probability of each:
Let's go with your assumption at any given time there are 50,000 accounts not in the beta and 10% of those (from one of your posts a few pages back) have posted in the forum (so 5,000), with every person picked replaced by a new person of the same category over time. For the purpose of probability, the posters actually count as 10 people, or a total of 50,000 vs. the 45,000 who haven't posted. The pool of names they pick from actually contains 95,000 names, even though only 50,000 of them are unique. So the probability of a non-poster is 1/95000, where the probability of a poster is 1/9500 given the numbers you're using. |
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I hope I get in.
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Right, so there is actually a pretty big chance to be invited during the first month, I like that.
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They should just hand out one key per minute ... or just pick me next ;)
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Math is hard
I am the greatest
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" Thanks, I've updated the OP to reflect this. Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League)
FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League) HC Ladder Rank: 7 |
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" Fixt. Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League)
FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League) HC Ladder Rank: 7 |
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sounds good, hope I get in.
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Also they can accelerate or slow the lotto countdown anytime they want
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The math doesn't take into account that each time someone is picked, the chances of everyone else go up.
I'm not sure that it'll matter for the first few hundred, but after 1,000 or so are picked, it'll start to substantially impact the numbers. |
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