Donald Trump

Big enough that overcoming it would break a modern precedent.

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Big enough that overcoming it would break a modern precedent.

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Antnee wrote:

Big enough that overcoming it would break a modern precedent.

Really? On average she's maybe 4% ahead in the latest polls. That's comfortably within margin of error.

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Xavderion wrote:

Really? On average she's maybe 4% ahead in the latest polls. That's comfortably within margin of error.

Do you know how the electoral college works?

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NeroNoah wrote:

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Xavderion wrote:

Really? On average she's maybe 4% ahead in the latest polls. That's comfortably within margin of error.

Do you know how the electoral college works?

Ye, but those polls tend to be even more inaccurate. Look at some of those gaps lel.

https://plot.ly/~busterroni/272/polling-average-vs-reality-in-the-2016-democratic-primary-sanders/

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Xavderion wrote:

Ye, but those polls tend to be even more inaccurate. Look at some of those gaps lel.

https://plot.ly/~busterroni/272/polling-average-vs-reality-in-the-2016-democratic-primary-sanders/

Ehhmmm...without any context or methodology we cannot really say (I just saw the data and code and it's not helpful to understand anything, it just has the numbers without any info about weighting of the polls or something).

Honestly, it seems a shitty page. I'd search something better.

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Xavderion wrote:

That awkward moment when CNN insinuates that all blacks are felons.

Spoiler

Not much different than Bill Clinton saying that African Americans watch the same TV as normal Americans. (It was either "normal" or "regular" that he used - been too long ago to remember which exactly, but the media glossed over that at high speed.

No racism to see here, folks - move along now before Hillary's "Super Predators" show up.

As for the felons voting - if the felony was killing someone else, then the felon has stolen one vote away. If they can bring that person back to life again and restore that lost vote, then they can have their vote back after their sentence is over.

^I thought they never left

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innervation wrote:

What are two things that government CAN give these kids? Education and hope.

Education can help - given that the educators themselves aren't stoking the flames and inciting more violence - but, so far, it seems to change the temperature of the flames more than prevent the flames.

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innervation wrote:

In some ways, historically, the deck has been absolutely stacked against African Americans.

Definitely. Historically, compared to non-African Americans, absolutely, and not in minor fashion. Even if you had the funds to move to a better neighborhood, you were probably "red lined" out of that neighborhood.

I'd agree with your "low expectations" assessment. While every child may not turn out to be Einstein, that doesn't mean parents and teachers shouldn't hope for and nudge them towards being the very best they can be.

A friend of mine works as a volunteer mentoring at risk youth. He tells his most important goal, and the biggest determinant of whether they succeed in turning themselves around, is raising their standards and getting them to expect more of themselves as well. Having another person to hold your feet to the fire goes hand in hand with giving praise and coaching.

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innervation wrote:

As someone involved in and passionate about education, I tend, perhaps more than others, to think of it as a solution. Even if I'm wrong, what's the worst case scenario?

The nation goes bankrupt, and we get excited that over 21% of high schoolers can pass high school level math, since only 18% met that level the previous year.

I think more education as a general principle is a great idea. I think the education system itself needs a vast rethinking of what the goals are, and organizing the system and its components to meet those goals on a regular basis.

Just like the military, though, funding for education can be inadequate for current and future needs, or excessive and unproductive.








Things stay the same, but we have smarter, more educated people? At least that will set us up to have more smart people thinking about the problem in the future.[/quote]

OK - Third, fourth - make that fifth attempt to "fix" this post - may just need to make a duplicate post if the GGG server code keeps misbehaving...

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NeroNoah wrote:

It seems a very complex problem that is hard to understand (don't you have scientists working on this?). And I do agree you can't just reduce it to muh racism (although some US citizens are very special in that regard).

The trickiest thing I can think about this is how to estimate causality on a complex problem like this when there is so much shit going on at the same time. Endogeneity problems everywhere.

There is a chance that it can't be solved at all in a relatively short time span too.

I think the problem is complex, and that they understand some of the problems but are missing some key factors. There are people trying to figure it out, but too many are hampered by consensual thinking, and looking in the easiest places.

Personally, I think it's a three or four generational solution. IOW - If we had the exact solution now, it would take that many generations to fix, because one of the factors isn't something we can change directly.

I think the following study is an example of looking in the right direction for this factor, but they are still looking too short term, imo.

On long term psychological effects of maternal stress:


Transgenerational impact of intimate partner violence on methylation in the promoter of the glucocorticoid receptor