Donald Trump
" Added to that, you can expect the average Clinton voter to be less dedicated than the average Trump voter, meaning the latter is more likely to show up on election day. Last edited by Jojas on Aug 24, 2016, 3:56:39 PM
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" 750K? Wow, I used to have a website with more traffic than that. PoE Origins - Piety's story http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2081910
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" You should couch your language. This could skew the results of many polls if the occurrence of the phenomenon in question is at a high enough threshold. It's a good habit to be in so that you don't write something your professors won't appreciate. :P I agree that Trump voters moreso than Clinton (or third party) voters are much more likely to be 'laying low' for the reasons you suggest. But as you say, we don't know how many, therefore we can't say the polls lose their meaning, and even if they were, some polls would be more affected than others (for instance, state polling in Mississippi would be less likely to be skewed heavily over this). |
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" Old people don't meet many of the criteria of 'enthusiasm', but they vote more reliably than young people. The 'Trump crowd is more enthusiastic' line of thinking isn't as useful or impressive as it may seem. |
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" Do the size of rallies have any connection to the enthusiasm behind a candidate? anything is everything
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" Afaik, polls are either chosen randomly or as representative as possible for the overall population. The age factor doesn't really seem to come into it. | |
The reason I brought age up was to illustrate that 'enthusiasm' can be a bit of a coin flip in terms of measuring what you think you're measuring when it comes to translating that enthusiasm into a majority of votes. One example would be if Hillary was going to get a larger share of the senior citizen vote, who you'd less expect to see marching in the streets, going door to door, dressing up and going to campaign events, and other active things generally associated with enthusiasm.
Another reason HRC's enthusiasm metrics probably suck is because her young voters will be holding their noses while voting for her (among those that do) as opposed to happily and enthusiastically campaigning for her. These are the bern victims after all. They have no good reason to be excited about her outside of 'she's not on the (R) ticket'. |
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" This is what's currently happening in Germany, the right-wing party (AfD) is being constantly under-polled (around 3-5% in the latest elections). GGG banning all political discussion shortly after getting acquired by China is a weird coincidence.
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Ok. As Nate Silver said, pick one:
"The size of my rallies proves how much support we have!" "Our supporters are too embarrassed to answer the polls!" A comprehensive, easy on the eyes loot filter:
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1245785 Need a chill group exiles to hang with? Join us: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1251403 | |
" Enthusiastic supporters and closet supporters can coexist tbh. GGG banning all political discussion shortly after getting acquired by China is a weird coincidence.
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