Donald Trump

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kolyaboo wrote:
On the subject of polls and Trump. Poli Sci minor here.

There is real reason to believe that people are lying now more than ever on these polls. A lot of folks have been shamed either at work, on FB, whatever when they say anything positive about Trump so they may very well lie to a pollster. In fact, they will lie, we know that. What we do not know is how many.

This pretty much makes the polls meaningless.


Added to that, you can expect the average Clinton voter to be less dedicated than the average Trump voter, meaning the latter is more likely to show up on election day.
Last edited by Jojas on Aug 24, 2016, 3:56:39 PM
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Xavderion wrote:
The Clinton Narrative Network went full damage control with this one:



They're dying btw, 750k peak viewers, most of them all day viewers (aka airports, fitness studios etc that run CNN all day every day). I certainly don't hope for a comeback.


750K? Wow, I used to have a website with more traffic than that.
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kolyaboo wrote:
On the subject of polls and Trump. Poli Sci minor here.

There is real reason to believe that people are lying now more than ever on these polls. A lot of folks have been shamed either at work, on FB, whatever when they say anything positive about Trump so they may very well lie to a pollster. In fact, they will lie, we know that. What we do not know is how many.

This pretty much makes the polls meaningless.


You should couch your language.

This could skew the results of many polls if the occurrence of the phenomenon in question is at a high enough threshold.

It's a good habit to be in so that you don't write something your professors won't appreciate. :P

I agree that Trump voters moreso than Clinton (or third party) voters are much more likely to be 'laying low' for the reasons you suggest. But as you say, we don't know how many, therefore we can't say the polls lose their meaning, and even if they were, some polls would be more affected than others (for instance, state polling in Mississippi would be less likely to be skewed heavily over this).
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Jojas wrote:


Added to that, you can expect the average Clinton voter to be less dedicated than the average Trump voter, meaning the latter is more likely to show up on election day.


Old people don't meet many of the criteria of 'enthusiasm', but they vote more reliably than young people. The 'Trump crowd is more enthusiastic' line of thinking isn't as useful or impressive as it may seem.
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innervation wrote:
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Jojas wrote:


Added to that, you can expect the average Clinton voter to be less dedicated than the average Trump voter, meaning the latter is more likely to show up on election day.


Old people don't meet many of the criteria of 'enthusiasm', but they vote more reliably than young people. The 'Trump crowd is more enthusiastic' line of thinking isn't as useful or impressive as it may seem.


Do the size of rallies have any connection to the enthusiasm behind a candidate?
anything is everything
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innervation wrote:
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Jojas wrote:


Added to that, you can expect the average Clinton voter to be less dedicated than the average Trump voter, meaning the latter is more likely to show up on election day.


Old people don't meet many of the criteria of 'enthusiasm', but they vote more reliably than young people. The 'Trump crowd is more enthusiastic' line of thinking isn't as useful or impressive as it may seem.


Afaik, polls are either chosen randomly or as representative as possible for the overall population. The age factor doesn't really seem to come into it.
The reason I brought age up was to illustrate that 'enthusiasm' can be a bit of a coin flip in terms of measuring what you think you're measuring when it comes to translating that enthusiasm into a majority of votes. One example would be if Hillary was going to get a larger share of the senior citizen vote, who you'd less expect to see marching in the streets, going door to door, dressing up and going to campaign events, and other active things generally associated with enthusiasm.

Another reason HRC's enthusiasm metrics probably suck is because her young voters will be holding their noses while voting for her (among those that do) as opposed to happily and enthusiastically campaigning for her. These are the bern victims after all. They have no good reason to be excited about her outside of 'she's not on the (R) ticket'.
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kolyaboo wrote:
On the subject of polls and Trump. Poli Sci minor here.

There is real reason to believe that people are lying now more than ever on these polls. A lot of folks have been shamed either at work, on FB, whatever when they say anything positive about Trump so they may very well lie to a pollster. In fact, they will lie, we know that. What we do not know is how many.

This pretty much makes the polls meaningless.


This is what's currently happening in Germany, the right-wing party (AfD) is being constantly under-polled (around 3-5% in the latest elections).

GGG banning all political discussion shortly after getting acquired by China is a weird coincidence.
Ok. As Nate Silver said, pick one:

"The size of my rallies proves how much support we have!"

"Our supporters are too embarrassed to answer the polls!"
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Antnee wrote:
Ok. As Nate Silver said, pick one:

"The size of my rallies proves how much support we have!"

"Our supporters are too embarrassed to answer the polls!"


Enthusiastic supporters and closet supporters can coexist tbh.
GGG banning all political discussion shortly after getting acquired by China is a weird coincidence.

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