Secrets secrets secrets and more secrets

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LazarusQ wrote:

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eXecut1on wrote:

the 4x unique buff got nerfed extremely hard ~ 1 week after they introduced it. I'd estimate it's around 1.5x now.

Out of pure curiosity: how do you make that estimate ? How much data, from which source, analysed how ? I'm not trying to antagonise, here, I would just like a slightly more precise statement.

Bought 100s of Acton's Nightmare / Maelström of Chaos / Olmec's Sanctum and ran a MF Discharger. Made ~100ex profit (After subtracting map cost. Actual value of dropped uniques was way above 100ex) just from selling those uniques for lowest price on poe.trade the first 3 days. Binos, Voltaxics, Shavs etc. dropped like mad. Took a break for 1-2 days and even increased my IIR by 50% but I barely saw any good unique. That was when I was 100% convinced they are changing the droprates whenever they want. There were other cases before that where I thought that they could've modified droprates but nobody would've believed me anyway. RNG may be RNG but the discrepancy is not that absurd as many people think.

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LazarusQ wrote:

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Legatus1982 wrote:

TLDR:
So where did all that ex originate? That's the question someone here needs to answer before they can even attempt to discredit posters like the OP.

You make a very good point, but you seem to have forgotten something: the sheer number of players. For instance,

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Legatus1982 wrote:

8. There would have to be enough shavs drops for someone to actually sell it for 40ex after 3 days (again unlikely).

That is actually quite likely. A lot of people reach lvl 62 in less than three days, and that's all it takes to have a chance for a Shav's to drop. Sure, the rate is low, but the number of players is high enough to make up for it.

Also, obviously the guy didn't farm the 40ex, but it's not unreasonable to think that a lot of exalts farmed in the first few days make it to RMT (bots don't have lives, they can level quickly and farm early).

All in all, I see no need for GGG involvement to explain that, and no element of proof either.

Remember Occam's razor.

Ggg doesn't have to do anything. Point is though there is much more ex floating around than actually drops.

Also, BOTS IN POE? IMPOSSIBRU

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eXecut1on wrote:

Bought 100s of Acton's Nightmare / Maelström of Chaos / Olmec's Sanctum and ran a MF Discharger. Made ~100ex profit (After subtracting map cost. Actual value of dropped uniques was way above 100ex) just from selling those uniques for lowest price on poe.trade the first 3 days. Binos, Voltaxics, Shavs etc. dropped like mad. Took a break for 1-2 days and even increased my IIR by 50% but I barely saw any good unique. That was when I was 100% convinced they are changing the droprates whenever they want. There were other cases before that where I thought that they could've modified droprates but nobody would've believed me anyway. RNG may be RNG but the discrepancy is not that absurd as many people think.

Ok, gotcha. I'm pretty sure you had a lucky streak on the first three days, then. Three days of mapping, even the whole 72 hours, is nowhere near enough to get an estimate of a drop rate. RNG is RNG and the discrepancy (I think you mean variance, actually) is in fact much higher than people think. Short streaks are the rule, not the exception.

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Legatus1982 wrote:

Ggg doesn't have to do anything. Point is though there is much more ex floating around than actually drops.

Also, BOTS IN POE? IMPOSSIBRU

If there is more exalts in the game than what drops, they have to be generated directly by GGG, unless someone hacked their server, but I doubt it: they can track the amount of currency in the game fairly easily from what I read.
So there are two possibilities. Either, as you say, there are exalts produced out of thin air (i.e. not from drops) and GGG are in it, making crazy money from RMT, or you are underestimating the number of exalts that drop.
From what I gathered of GGG's moral code on one side, and of the average player's grasp on probabilities on the other, I know which one I think is more likely. But I might be wrong, of course. Anyone can be wrong.

Secrets? Maybe GGG doesn't know what's going on themselves.

For example, just look at their history and quality of decisions including the latest from their 'balance team'.. it's laughable at best. They don't have a clue in most cases, jmho.

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LazarusQ wrote:

RNG is RNG

That's exactly what every MMO company wants people to think. I'm sorry you fell for it.

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eXecut1on wrote:

That's exactly what every MMO company wants people to think. I'm sorry you fell for it.

That's exactly what every conspiracy theorist says without real arguments to back it up. You win the cliché competition this time. Congratulations.

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LazarusQ wrote:

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eXecut1on wrote:

That's exactly what every MMO company wants people to think. I'm sorry you fell for it.

That's exactly what every conspiracy theorist says without real arguments to back it up. You win the cliché competition this time. Congratulations.

I don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

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LazarusQ wrote:

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eXecut1on wrote:

Bought 100s of Acton's Nightmare / Maelström of Chaos / Olmec's Sanctum and ran a MF Discharger. Made ~100ex profit (After subtracting map cost. Actual value of dropped uniques was way above 100ex) just from selling those uniques for lowest price on poe.trade the first 3 days. Binos, Voltaxics, Shavs etc. dropped like mad. Took a break for 1-2 days and even increased my IIR by 50% but I barely saw any good unique. That was when I was 100% convinced they are changing the droprates whenever they want. There were other cases before that where I thought that they could've modified droprates but nobody would've believed me anyway. RNG may be RNG but the discrepancy is not that absurd as many people think.

Ok, gotcha. I'm pretty sure you had a lucky streak on the first three days, then. Three days of mapping, even the whole 72 hours, is nowhere near enough to get an estimate of a drop rate. RNG is RNG and the discrepancy (I think you mean variance, actually) is in fact much higher than people think. Short streaks are the rule, not the exception.

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Legatus1982 wrote:

Ggg doesn't have to do anything. Point is though there is much more ex floating around than actually drops.

Also, BOTS IN POE? IMPOSSIBRU

If there is more exalts in the game than what drops, they have to be generated directly by GGG, unless someone hacked their server, but I doubt it: they can track the amount of currency in the game fairly easily from what I read.
So there are two possibilities. Either, as you say, there are exalts produced out of thin air (i.e. not from drops) and GGG are in it, making crazy money from RMT, or you are underestimating the number of exalts that drop.
From what I gathered of GGG's moral code on one side, and of the average player's grasp on probabilities on the other, I know which one I think is more likely. But I might be wrong, of course. Anyone can be wrong.

No, there's not two possibilities. You're making the assumption ex only comes from drops. That isn't necessarily the case. It doesn't have to be a vendor recipe either - there's possibly unknown ways to generate EX that people don't know about except for specific individuals. That is the point the OP is making, and the data supports it. In fact it's the likeliest case.

Yes bots are a possibility. But bot users are a minority I'd hope (wishful thinking?). And they'd still have to be leveled before they can start using the bot. Many would still die to new, unbalanced and unidentified mechanics during the leveling process. All in all, even if everyone tried to do this very few if any would even succeed without getting caught... and not everyone is trying.

Most likely case - someone has either found a recipe (did anyone ever finish that argument? does the recipe exist or does it not exist?) or they are using some other method - fishing?, unknown "quests" or secret areas, duplication, exploits, hacking, rhoa event, I mean the list could go on forever - nobody has discovered every secret of POE. But the fact remains somebody (or several somebodies) is (are) generating a lot of exalts. Way more than the normal players get from drops.

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eXecut1on wrote:

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LazarusQ wrote:

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eXecut1on wrote:

That's exactly what every MMO company wants people to think. I'm sorry you fell for it.

That's exactly what every conspiracy theorist says without real arguments to back it up. You win the cliché competition this time. Congratulations.

I don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

They are not mutually exclusive, you're welcome to do both.
Do you really think I am being unreasonable ? People here are basically accusing GGG of at least intentionally lying to us, possibly scamming us. Should we not base something like this on a little more than a few unlucky map runs and a "corporations are evil" caricature ?

Perhaps I am taking this too seriously.

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Legatus1982 wrote:

No, there's not two possibilities. You're making the assumption ex only comes from drops. That isn't necessarily the case. It doesn't have to be a vendor recipe either - there's possibly unknown ways to generate EX that people don't know about except for specific individuals.

That's right, I missed that point, my apologies.

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Legatus1982 wrote:

That is the point the OP is making, and the data supports it. In fact it's the likeliest case.

Where could I find that data ? I'd like to see it for myself.