Secrets secrets secrets and more secrets
" wtf!? that's none of the exalted recipes i know about? how many do we actually have!? O.O War, -kcstar- Have a problem with something I said? PM goetzjam don't derail a thread. 'There's plenty that needs to change. And back in my day we had real game devs.' - TheAnuhart Last edited by ScrotieMcB on February 30, 2016 0:61 PM Help Charan color the board - use [u color] to make your posts shine. Last edited by kcstar#1724 on Dec 5, 2015, 7:19:25 AM
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" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e7OKbkXruk&feature=youtu.be&list=PL4aZrsY9M5qA3-seudJZlG4I1NsUHDGxg&t=2187 Here's your proof Einkil. And just so you don't go off wandering - if they do that for currency i.e. "change drop rates all the time" how can you as a player be sure they don't do the same with perfection from shrines for example? And just so you can have further proof you can look up https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1470621 and see when ggg stealth nerfed the frequency with witch people got perfection on shrines. You can also look up the Darkshrines announcement and see even there when people confirmed the nerf. But as always you can close your eyes and walk away. |
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" IT is hard to tell based on posts on forum if there was nerf or some player are just unlucky. I 20q many gems in DS, sometimes it took me entire tab of items to get perfection 2 times. Other time I had 4 perfections in 8 items. Overally there are stealth nerfs and buffs to drop rates to many items and Chris talk from 1st link is enough to prove that. "Is there such a thing as an absolute, timeless enemy? There is no such thing, and never has been. And the reason is that our enemies are human beings like us. They can only be our enemies in relative terms." Last edited by kamil1210#5432 on Dec 5, 2015, 2:01:56 PM
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i don't agree to the op's notion that secrets in the game are a bad thing, yes it's frustrating to discover some silent circles have profited from hidden knowledge for some time. but overall it's rather good for a game if there are secrets waiting for you to be discovered.
the problem i see is (again) with consistency: if there are secret recipes, players neccessarily purchase items from other players by hiding their real worth. why is it called "scam" and "support promises to look into these cases" if experienced players do the same to newer players? age and treachery will triumph over youth and skill!
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" Yeah, and the minute after he says that, he explains why : they make small changes all the time to steer and maintain the economy. Every one specific change is virtually meaningless for a player, but has noticeable consequences at the level of the whole community. But the vocal part of the playerbase has a strong tendency to overreact, and an even stronger tendency to have no fucking clue about statistical relevance or probabilities in general (you'll pardon my French, but I'm sick of people posting theories like "I did three runs and didn't get any maps, they must have nerfed the drop rates"). Which takes us to your second "proof": " The people "confirming" the nerf are basing that confirmation on exactly zero data and a dozen classical cognitive biases which I won't bother listing myself, but Wikipedia's your friend. As far as anyone can tell, GGG has always been straightforward and transparent about the major nerfs and buffs (in particular the ones one single player might notice from his own experience). All in all, it boils down to this: do you think GGG are competent or not ? I do. They are not a bunch of newbies fiddling around with a few knobs to see what would happen. They are good enough to know where to aim in terms of balance, but they cannot predict everything. It's natural and perfectly OK if they need to fine-tune it a bit afterwards. There is no ulterior motive for hiding game-changing nerfs from us. They are not running a scam behind our backs. There is no exalt recipe that nobody knows about and that they are using to get cash on the side through RMT. If they wanted to do that, they wouldn't need a recipe anyway. But as always you can shut down your brain and speculate away. Save a Carrot, Eat a Rabbit!
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rumours about stealth nerfs of the perfection darkshrine effect are bullshit. playing casually i perfected over 30 gems already and just now had 2 gems perfected in 2 runs.
imho the chance is better the less affixes the item has beside multi crit and how high the multi crit tier affix is compared to the other affixes. age and treachery will triumph over youth and skill! Last edited by vio#1992 on Dec 5, 2015, 7:32:08 PM
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@ Lazarus
I get why "you won't bother" listing things that have no relevance to the discussion since they are in no way proof to sustain your point.(On a side note it's funny how you felt you had to step in and answer me cause Einkil couldn't or wouldn't. Anyways...) As far as ggg's competence goes. I never said they are incompetent. If you read my first post in this thread you'll see that my main gripe with them is the semi transparency when it comes to any aspect of the game. Be it prizes for the temp leagues or nerfs/buffs that affect everyone's gaming experience. As for those people who run three maps and get no drops. I've been there, know that feeling and decided to simply not cater to ggg's steering every aspect of the game towards trading; i.e. I'd rather not progress with a toon than having to buy high tier maps cause ggg thinks thats ok. |
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" Hey now let's not insult the research of Von Diniken by equating it to some PoE conspiracy rant. It's also not even in the same league as the bullshit of a con man - Elron Hubbard. There aren't any similarities between those two. ✰CARD✰ The Survivalist
I can’t buy any more big supporter packs because the forum only supports showing 7 legacy tags. |
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" All right, let's make this discussion a bit constructive if we can ! " This was precisely my point. I think GGG are competent enough to know when to be transparent and when to not be in order to avoid player overreaction. The nerfs/buffs that affect everyone's gaming experience are the ones they are transparent about. The other ones you wouldn't even notice if nobody said anything. That is why I have no gripe with them. " And here you misunderstand me entirely. The feeling that you know, if I'm not mistaken, is the fact that the drop rates are extremely low because the game is balanced around the whole community and its economy. I don't like that either. I'm a solo player at heart. But that is not the issue here. I was talking about people doing three unsuccessful runs, and concluding from that alone that there had been a sneaky drop rate nerf. That is just plain wrong. " Ok, here we go:
Spoiler
Clustering illusion - The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data (that is, seeing phantom patterns). Confirmation bias - The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. Conservatism (Bayesian) - The tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence. Dunning-Kruger effect - The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their own ability. Experimenter's or expectation bias - The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations. Focusing effect - The tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event. Gambler's fallacy - The tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. The fallacy arises from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads." Illusory correlation - Inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events. Insensitivity to sample size - The tendency to under-expect variation in small samples. Negativity bias - Psychological phenomenon by which humans have a greater recall of unpleasant memories compared with positive memories. Optimism bias - The tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes. Overconfidence effect - Excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. Selective perception - The tendency for expectations to affect perception. Semmelweis reflex - The tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm. And I thought I was exaggerating when I said "a dozen". Although, to be fair, some of those are redundant. Do you see how it's relevant ? If not, I can spell it out, but it could take some time. But in short, I can sum it up as "people are shit at statistics". And finally, on a sidenote, " At least I did something funny ! But do not presume to know what I think or feel. I did not step in to answer on Einkil's behalf. I stepped in because I saw some pretty unconvincing arguments, and I had a few of my own that I wanted to share. This is how a forum works, if I remember correctly. Save a Carrot, Eat a Rabbit!
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Last edited by MildorDArkehn#7296 on Dec 6, 2015, 3:34:46 PM
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