I am lucky, therefore game is fine

He's just stating that it's damn-near statistically impossible not to see an exalt drop in (insert absurdly high number) hours.

If we were given a big nugget of data for time played over the course of many different accounts and characters, you'd almost certainly see that "wealth" distribution in terms of raw drops is pretty evenly spaced, with a relatively few outliers.

RNG does not discriminate, and "luck" is not a force of nature to any sensible person. Sorry John.

statistically unlikely? yes. very unlikely, as you add even more numbers past 4 digits.

but saying that, and saying "there are no players who never saw an Exalt in X hours" - is a whole different thing. and it's an utter folly of a blind statement.

and as you may have noticed, I don't like the use of terms like "wealth" and "statistics" when an ARPG is concerned.
rather, I'd like to see "loot" and "rewards per risk" as common terms.
Path Of Exile made people think more in terms of statistics, and "wealth in Exalts", as opposed to terms of items that drop/craft.

in a game that has what I imagine a classic ARPG to have, it's not necessarily about how many hours you've played (translation: how many rolls of RNG dice) - but more about what you achieved in that time.

so yeah "game is not for me" right?
well it actually IS for me. I enjoy playing it so much, very few games can compare.
because many aspects of it are sheer brilliance. take the Skill Tree for instance.
and the content is great. just listen to the music in the Malachai fight...
but this one aspect of "wealth and trade Ueber Alles", to me - just does not belong.
I do not enjoy that. at all.

and I'd really like RNG to work for me if I do some crazy stuff and live to tell the tale, instead of having to work for it. to worship it, and beg it for mercy.

So, if someone would make a post he never saw a wisdom scroll drop in 3000h of playing, you would believe him?

Man, every time JohnKeys posts it reminds me of the Vorici dialogue when you ask him about Vagan:

"Never have I heard a man talk so much, yet say so little"

Eyy John, you know how successful I am so what do you think?

Am I lucky?

I've only dropped 3ex in 1.5 years with multiple char in mid 90s

This season
81 in tempest no exalts
83 in tempest no exalts
82 in warbands no exalts
71 in warbands no exalts

But thats ok. I trade inapplicable finds for applicable and get what I want usually.

Usually I can build 1 GG toon a season and my std stash in decent like 12 6L and other nice stuff.

If you dont trade you're really short changing yourself. Basically you make your own luck with trading and dont have to depend on game.

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johnKeys wrote:

"

Miská wrote:

So, if someone would make a post he never saw a wisdom scroll drop in 3000h of playing, you would believe him?

statistically unlikely? yes. very unlikely, as you add even more numbers past 4 digits.

but saying that, and saying "there are no players who never saw an Exalt in X hours" - is a whole different thing. and it's an utter folly of a blind statement.

It really isn't, if X is large enough.

I mean, let's say that your odds of seeing an Exalt are 1% per hour (average of 1 Exalt per 100 hours). This would mean that the odds of never seeing an Exalt in 2,000 hours of play are roughly 1 in 500 million. Those odds are so low that, given a sample of 100,000 players, I can be 99.98% sure that zero members of that 100,000 population had no Exalt drop, and are talking out their asses if one of them says otherwise. I'm not particularly concerned about a 0.02% chance of somehow being wrong.

Naturally, the tricky part here is establishing the baseline (in this case, 1 Exalt per 100 hours). I'm not sure if that is or is not a reasonable or factually correct baseline. For the record I pulled it out of my ass. However, once a proper, evidence-based baseline has been established, we can, and should, consider claims which are radically different from this baseline to be so astronomically unlikely that it is far wiser to consider such claims to be lies than to actually give them credence.

I mean, the core of the johnKeys argument seems to be "you can't disprove it." We don't have to. Just narrowing it down to a certain degree of unlikelyhood is enough to call bullshit.

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johnKeys wrote:

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Miská wrote:

But sadly it's usually the people that don't do any farming that complain the most.
Everyone forgets the big upside with RNG. It WILL reward you eventually.

the question is, how much farming? and what is "eventually"?

I'm extremely happy right now, because RNG just gave me my first ever Fused 6-link.

but... that's not a "earned it" happy.
it's the kind of happy you get, when you win a Lottery, or the dice in the Casino fall where you hoped them to be.

fun, but two different flavors of it.

I wish, the 2nd flavor would be more dominant: earning, rather than just luck.
I mean... I beat Merciless Malachai for the first time, 15 minutes after this feat of insane luck. and the drops from him were as expected, by someone who played PoE for as long as I have: utter trash. only one piece was actually worth spending a Wisdom Scroll on - and then I left it on the floor.

and please don't automatically pull out the "but.. trade!" argument.
trade isn't "earning" in the ARPG sense.
it's working a day job in Wraeclast, running the same thing repeatedly (a.k.a "grind" the way only Grinding Gear can make) for a salary in scraps, then use your Exalt-encrusted Credit Card for that Kaom's Heart you always wanted.

I know some people like it, and I can somewhat understand even though I hate it with a passion.
but the same people who then give people like me the "your argument is invalid because you hate trade" (or worse. see OP) - simply do not get the point.

You can also "earn it" by doing the 1500 fusings, trading your way up or similar options.

If you want to RNG hard fuse your own 6-link and then complain you don't feel like your owning it.

Also people are tiring of your post that every single time you beat something remotely difficult for yourself you should really get "really good items." Just because merc malachai is hard for you doesn't mean it's hard for other people. You keep insisting this "risk vs reward" and "bosses should reward you on how hard they are + your own skill" which arpgs are essentially low mechanical skill games almost completely based on gear.

Do you think people where skilled or was it hard to do ubers in D2? No they just got xyz gear and build and crushing blowed the monster to death. Your getting to the point your falling to the trap where you really don't care about the adventure anymore and more to the means to the end (of more loot).

This isn't even a trade problem, you essentially don't like random RPG loot system. In every ARPG I ever played, bosses never "scaled loot to how hard it was to beat them" nor always drop good stuff and you would also kill the boss a couple of dozens times get for a gear upgrade.

You also essentially just want it like a single player RPG adventure, johnkeys the warriors kills the zombie necromancer boss that is hand designed to be difficult to all of the 4 classes at this stage off the game and drops the "Sword of undead slaying +3" which is hand chosen to drop for that class (like the 3 other classes) + a few other items. Then you never kill the boss ever again.

Even in modern CASUAL ARPGs like torchlight and (I guess shooter arpg?) borderlands you'll grind shit over and over again for a 1% gear upgrades with no actual factor in "Risk vs reward" or "skill."

You're unlucky, therefore game is broken... See what I did there? I used your shitty logic against you :)

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Peenk wrote:

You're unlucky, therefore game is broken... See what I did there? I used your shitty logic against you :)

#shrekt