something fishy - rng is not rng

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mark1030 wrote:

And again I ask the question, what difference would it make? It wouldn't decrease the number of mirrors dropping. It would just prevent 2 dropping in timeframe one and none dropping in timeframe 2. There would still be 2 mirrors dropping.

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Gemdraco wrote:

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mark1030 wrote:

And again I ask the question, what difference would it make? It wouldn't decrease the number of mirrors dropping. It would just prevent 2 dropping in timeframe one and none dropping in timeframe 2. There would still be 2 mirrors dropping.

Yeah, maybe one of these years, I'll be the 100,000th caller and win a mirror. I'm not looking for an argument with you. Nothing good can come of it. Somebody made a point about gated drops and agreed with it. That's all.

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mark1030 wrote:

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Gemdraco wrote:

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mark1030 wrote:

And again I ask the question, what difference would it make? It wouldn't decrease the number of mirrors dropping. It would just prevent 2 dropping in timeframe one and none dropping in timeframe 2. There would still be 2 mirrors dropping.

Yeah, maybe one of these years, I'll be the 100,000th caller and win a mirror. I'm not looking for an argument with you. Nothing good can come of it. Somebody made a point about gated drops and agreed with it. That's all.

Not looking for an argument either. Just don't understand how it makes any difference either way.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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Arrowneous wrote:

 Anyone can say that what you experienced and heard is "tin foil hat" nonsense and all, but the truth is that GGG uses what is called "gated" RNG. That means that while RNG is in full force all the time on all drops the server side is keeping a count of the total number of a specific unique item to ensure that only a specific number of that item is released into the PoE economy over a specific time.

Citation needed. By which I mean "you are probably talking out your ass."

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Arrowneous wrote:

This may be the best way to think of how RNG effects drop rates in PoE. While GGG is not regulating drop rates by tracking total counts of the various unique items over time, they are using "weighted RNG" formulas so that the odds of getting a high level unique are at the extremes of the RNG formulas used in PoE and the more common uniques are in the middle where the drop rate chance is the highest.

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Arrowneous wrote:

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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Arrowneous wrote:

 Anyone can say that what you experienced and heard is "tin foil hat" nonsense and all, but the truth is that GGG uses what is called "gated" RNG. That means that while RNG is in full force all the time on all drops the server side is keeping a count of the total number of a specific unique item to ensure that only a specific number of that item is released into the PoE economy over a specific time.

Citation needed. By which I mean "you are probably talking out your ass."

 Even if I am talking out of my ass, and I could be since I don't have insight into the PoE RNG drop formulas, a previous post compares PoE RNG to the likes of RNG of rolling a pair of dice. That means that each and every dice roll could randomly come up with any number from 2 to 12, but there are more ways to get a 7 than any other number. Using dice rolling as a simple analog for discussion purposes:

2= 1+1 (1)
3= 1+2, 2+1 (2)
4= 1+3, 2+2, 3+1 (3)
5= 2+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1 (4)
6= 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1 (5)
7= 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1 (6)
8= 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2 (5)
9= 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3 (4)
10=4+6, 5+5, 6+4 (3)
11=5+6, 6+5 (2)
12=6+6 (2)

This may be the best way to think of how RNG effects drop rates in PoE. While GGG is not regulating drop rates by tracking total counts of the various unique items over time, they are using "weighted RNG" formulas so that the odds of getting a high level unique are at the extremes of the RNG formulas used in PoE and the more common uniques are in the middle where the drop rate chance is the highest.

 So that means I really should not be using gated but instead be using the word weighted. So it is then correct to say that GGG is using "weighted RNG" to regulate the drop rates. Any way you look at it all this is being done by GGG in the the name of protecting "their precious" economy. It still means I could chance 1000 items or more and never get a unique out of it. RNG that is over weighted in the negative direction so that I need to farm for 1000+ chances to get a unique or maybe 2000 fusings to 6 link an item is just as bad as "gated RNG". Setting the RNG bar that high is a huge turn off for me and probably why the drop out rate on PoE is high.

 I always have to restate my position here that I'm not expecting or wanting a flood of good end game gear to drop as too much is just as bad as too little, but GGG really does need to adjust the formulas some to turn up the drop rates as right now most of us are in quality loot and fusing starvation mode. This goes hand in hand with item progression as we level into the 60s and beyond. I'm all for arpg grinding but right now the severe grind time is really wearing me down and preventing me (20 to 25 hours a week player) and my 2 very casual arpg player best friends from enjoying playing PoE. The difficulty factor is ok, the rewards for time played is not. I'm back to soloing and only trio playing RoS with them right now. I've tried hard to get them to come back to PoE but until the rewards improve that won't happen. And yes, I know this may not be the arpg I'm looking for to get my 2 friends to party play. But TL2 was too short and had loot overload issues among other undesired features (too cartoony for me), and RoS while the loot is certainly good it doesn't have the build diversity and re-playability that PoE has (and account bound items that I can't give to my friends is 100% crap).

 Maybe Chris and GGG has taken some of the common PoE player problems to heart and we'll get a better PoE in August. Maybe not and the uber elite 2% top grinding masochists will still be in arpg heaven here. We'll soon see.

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syrioforel wrote:

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Arrowneous wrote:

This may be the best way to think of how RNG effects drop rates in PoE. While GGG is not regulating drop rates by tracking total counts of the various unique items over time, they are using "weighted RNG" formulas so that the odds of getting a high level unique are at the extremes of the RNG formulas used in PoE and the more common uniques are in the middle where the drop rate chance is the highest.

Of course the drop probabilities are not uniform. "Random" does not mean uniform. "Random" is relatively meaningless unless a distribution is specified. Colloquially, when not stated that distribution is often a uniform one, but that doesn't apply here.

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Arrowneous wrote:

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syrioforel wrote:

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Arrowneous wrote:

This may be the best way to think of how RNG effects drop rates in PoE. While GGG is not regulating drop rates by tracking total counts of the various unique items over time, they are using "weighted RNG" formulas so that the odds of getting a high level unique are at the extremes of the RNG formulas used in PoE and the more common uniques are in the middle where the drop rate chance is the highest.

Of course the drop probabilities are not uniform. "Random" does not mean uniform. "Random" is relatively meaningless unless a distribution is specified. Colloquially, when not stated that distribution is often a uniform one, but that doesn't apply here.

 Yes, RNG by the very definition is random and that means we can play PoE for 100s of hours and not see a unique drop or get 1 or more uniques to drop in a single day. So all this talk of RNG all boils down to how much time is necessary on average to get a better item to drop. Obviously on a new league we start with nothing so 100% of everything is better. Then as we work our way up through the 3 levels of play and get to end game maps at around level 68 we have acquired many items and the chance that a better item will drop and be an upgrade for our build steadily goes down. Nothing new there and this is all normal for any arpg. Where GGG does set the bar and what I understand when some one refers to it as "gated" RNG is how high is that bar. How many 100s and 1000s of hours is, on the average (with full knowledge that RNG will put you on one side or the other of the median), does it take to get a better item. For most of the players we are currently being starved of better items and GGG hopefully will ease our plight and make playing more enjoyable. Mind you, no flood of great items is wanted (and that will never happen here), but setting the RNG bar a little lower to feed the 99% that love PoE but wish there was a better payout for time played. Yes, I'm fully aware that some players love to spend 1000s of hours grinding zones and maps until a great unique drops but I and most are not lovers of that much grind time.