6-socket Orb of Fusing Community Log (done)
" Just counted my stock, updated my post :) 320 fusings. IGN : Ericaa
My Store! /108685 My Rain of Arrows Evasion build guide! https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/791798 Twitch! http://www.twitch.tv/samfishersam |
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"Added, along with OP edit to include quote from Chris that heavily implies 6L chance is 1/1500 or greater. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
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" Another 250 5L:1 time 6L:0 | |
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This is a great project.
Can't wait to see where those probabilities land when the margins get small. Probably need about 5x more data. Let a man walk alone - Let him commit no sin. Let him bear few wishes, Like an elephant in the forest. Last edited by Zakaluka on Mar 4, 2013, 5:48:15 AM
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I'll chip in
6 Fusings was used to make it a 6L 6L: 180 fusions were used to make this a 6L Dys an sohm Rohs an kyn Sahl djahs afah Mah morn narr Last edited by Coconutdoggy on Mar 4, 2013, 5:59:02 AM
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" Are we playing the same game? cus the luck seem to be 1 sided here My IGN : Xmu / TeeBones
BEST CI CHEST FOR MIRROR 1K ES + TRI RESIST http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/306743 My Ice Witch 0.25Sec Freezing pulse guide ~ http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/214705 | |
" I'd like 5L data before adding these to the OP. We actually should expect about 2/3 of the 6L reports to take less attempts than the mean. If this seems impossible to you, read up on geometric distributions like this one, specifically regarding medians; keep in mind that only reports that eventually succeed in becoming 6L are part of this geometric distrubution. Additionally, the following formulas, which are all equivalent but solved for different variables, might be helpful to you; n represents a concept I'd describe as "unluckiness on a linear scale" (.99 is 1-in-100 unlucky, .5 is average luck and yields the median), x is the number of Orbs used, p is the chance of success, and e is Euler's number. n=1-(1-p)^x x=ln(1-n)/ln(1-p) p=1-e^(ln(1-n)/x) Regarding this specific point, if you replace p with its expression in terms of the mean, 1/x, you get n=1-(1-1/x)^x, which graphs like this... pretty much no matter what the chance of success is on your geometric distribution, 63.2% of the results will be less than the mean. (edit: as x approaches infinity, that number approaches 1-1/e, or 63.212%) When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Mar 4, 2013, 12:09:57 PM
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1050 Fusing used.
5L = 9 times 6L = 0 my QQ thread can be found here http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/180908 My IGN : Xmu / TeeBones
BEST CI CHEST FOR MIRROR 1K ES + TRI RESIST http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/306743 My Ice Witch 0.25Sec Freezing pulse guide ~ http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/214705 | |
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Yeah I got the PM I'll update if I remember correctly here ~ Once again
6 fusings were used on this They were no 5L's the 6th was the 6L obviously This was 180 fusions used with a total of 2 5Links with the 180th fusion being the 6L Dys an sohm Rohs an kyn Sahl djahs afah Mah morn narr Last edited by Coconutdoggy on Mar 4, 2013, 10:01:28 PM
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Thanks, True_Apathy. Yours and xmu's have been added.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
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