6-socket Orb of Fusing Community Log (done)

June 8, 2013:
"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
IMPORTANT NEWS

Did a major update from my hiatus on April 24 until now, excluding quality results. I also took the time to separate the new data (April 24 onward) from the older. You can view both data sets, as well as the grand total, in the OP.

These two batches of data are very divergent. Notice the 95% margin of error... according to the old sample, there's less than a 5% chance of the new sample existing, and vice versa. Either GGG was secretly changing rates behind the scenes, or there's some serious selection bias going on here. According to the old data, 5Ls are fairly hard to get, but 6Ls aren't so bad (only about five 5Ls per 6L); according to the new data, 5Ls are much easier, but 6Ls are a nightmare (about ten 5Ls per 6L).

Since I didn't see anything in the patch notes about changes (until the obvious 0.11.0 change), and I don't think GGG would blindside us with stealth changes, my conclusion is that reporting here is very biased. Early on, the mass numbers of 6L QQ threads may have led to over-reporting of 6Ls; later, the decreased novelty of 6L QQ may have led to mostly bragging posts about easier accomplishments, and less serious reports of 6L attempts. I'm not sure of the exact cause, but I firmly believe that social forces are contaminating results here.

Sorry, community, but your data is bad. (Feeling bad is optional.) Probably still a lot better than the average player's off-the-top-of-their-head estimate, but not good enough for further statistical inquiry.

As a result, I'm not very interested in maintaining a 20% quality community log, or continuing data accumulation further in this thread. I do plan on conducting my own, independent research, which will take months to gather a proper sample size, but will have data I know I can count on.

If someone else wants to start a 20% quality community log, they are free to do so. I'd recommend creating a new thread so that the OP could edit in the updated results.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Please do not come here just to post that you got a 6L from an Orb of Fusing.


In order for the data to be accurate, you must regularly post all of your statistics, not just the 5Ls/6Ls you create. The reason for this is if the only data people posted was of successes, the data would be biased away from failures that never become successes, making the odds seem higher than they really are - it's important to keep that from happening.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Complete logged six-socket data (NO QUALITY):
115129 - Four-link or less
790 - Five-links
129 - Six-links
-----
116048 - Total


Approximated Chances (95% reliable margin of error):
Four-link or less: 99.21% ±0.05% (99.16-99.26%)
Five-link: 0.68% ±0.05% (0.63-0.73%)
Six-link: 0.111% ±0.019% (0.092-0.130%)


Expected Orb of Fusing Consumption per Craft:
Five-link or six-link: 126 (119-135)
Six-link only: 900 (767-1087)

Data from Start to April 24
Complete logged six-socket data:
71683 - Four-link or less
437 - Five-links
94 - Six-links
-----
72214 - Total


Approximated Chances (95% reliable margin of error):
Four-link or less: 99.26% ±0.06% (99.20-99.33%)
Five-link: 0.61% ±0.06% (0.55-0.66%)
Six-link: 0.130% ±0.026% (0.104-0.156%)


Expected Orb of Fusing Consumption per Craft:
Five-link or six-link: 136 (125-149)
Six-link only: 768 (639-963)

Data from April 24 to Patch 0.11.0
Complete logged six-socket data:
43446 - Four-link or less
353 - Five-links
35 - Six-links
-----
43834 - Total


Approximated Chances (95% reliable margin of error):
Four-link or less: 99.11% ±0.09% (99.03-99.20%)
Five-link: 0.81% ±0.08% (0.72-0.89%)
Six-link: 0.080% ±0.026% (0.053-0.106%)


Expected Orb of Fusing Consumption per Craft:
Five-link or six-link: 113 (103-125)
Six-link only: 1252 (941-1873)

Post your own statistics, and I'll add them to the log. Be sure to include the exact number of Orbs used, the exact number of times you got 5L, as well as whether you got 6L or not. Also, be sure to link the item in the thread - this is important! If this isn't done, your data can't be counted. Also, please do not post the same data twice, nor edit a post to update the numbers; instead, create a new post with the new data only.

Keep in mind that the success rates will probably never be entirely accurate; it will take tens of thousands of orbs before I'd feel confident saying the statistics are even "close," which to me means that the margin of error is less than a third of the actual value for six-links. Margin of error is computed using the formula described here.

Relevant developer quote:
From http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/48468/highlight//page/1#p623946:
"
Chris wrote:
If there was a vendor recipe to guarantee six linked sockets if you traded in 1500 fusings, would you use it?

Edit: I'm not saying it takes 1500 fusings to get six linked sockets :P

My interpretation of this is that the chance of getting a 6L off one Fusing is at least 1/1500, and very likely 1/1000 or better. Although this interpretation is debatable, I think it's safe to say that, regardless of margin of error given for 6Ls above, the real chance is 0.066% or greater, and the expected consumption is 1500 or less.

Formatting blatantly stolen from MonopolyLegend.
I agree with [your QQ,] problem is, everything else I played makes me come back here. PoE fucks me better.
—Worldbreaker
WE NEED EARS: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/860384
LMP/GMP OP: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/904631
READ THIS BEFORE POSTING: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/402369
Last edited by ScrotieMcB on June 9, 2013 5:07 AM
I guess I'll take the first stab at this. I keep a spreadsheet to log my results for:



Summary
Fusings used: 1000
# of 5L : 9
# of 6L : 0

Breakdown:
Spoiler

29 - 5L
120
78 - 5L
55 - 5L
4
29
51
32 - 5L
3 - 5L
4 - 5L
2
13 - 5L
13
11
19
21
18
11
33
13
13 - 5L
41
10
68 - 5L
101
33
75
45


Throwing in the towel at 1,000

EDIT:
Well, this is where i throw in the towel. GG.

QQ Rant:
Spoiler

Well, I thought I would probably get a 6L with 300 fusings, and almost certainly get it with 600. Now, 1000 fusings down, I've lost hope.

I usually don't mind grinds - I've been playing grind-based games for more than a decade. But when you do nothing but grind for a month for chips to bet on a massive roulette wheel, and then walk away with nothing, it's painful. And of course it doesn't help reading all the examples of people 6L'ing in 20 tries :P.

Yes, I realize I could have bought a white 6L ilvl 72+ Vaal regalia for the 166 gcps i burned. Yes, I realize that I could have bought a mirror and also paid a service fee to get a replica of the best ES chest on the server. But I wanted to craft my own, I thought it would be fun.

I'm gonna "rage-break" now :P. I'm not quitting the game, but I do need a break. I'm pretty burned out on the whole mass fusing accumulation --> evaporation thing. Better luck to everyone else, thanks for reading.
Last edited by Pictionary on March 9, 2013 4:45 AM


257 fusings used:
4-links or less: 257
5-links: 0
6-links: 0

Spoiler
I used them all over a period in the following increments:
- 133
- 16
- 10
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 12
- 3
- 1
- 3
- 1
- 27
- 1
- 22
- 1
- 2
- 15
- 1
- 5
@Aelloon
Last edited by Aelloon on February 28, 2013 2:40 AM
I sold my 6L, sorry
Bit it took 20 fusings.
IGN: Kulde
"
Yxalitis wrote:
I sold my 6L, sorry
Bit it took 20 fusings.

Sorry, can't use the data then. Rules is rules.

Also updated opening post.
I agree with [your QQ,] problem is, everything else I played makes me come back here. PoE fucks me better.
—Worldbreaker
WE NEED EARS: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/860384
LMP/GMP OP: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/904631
READ THIS BEFORE POSTING: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/402369
Used 70 fusings on 6 socket. Never got a 5 Link. Got 4Link number of times, but who cares about that eh.

IGN: Melkrow
Beyond shop http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1130361
Last edited by Melkrow on February 28, 2013 5:57 AM
6L Lioneye's Glare

To lazy to count up the number of 4Ls but it is well worth the watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qagSL36qgZU
Order of the Raven | Guild Leader | IGN:HoneyBash | GMT -5

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/813491/page/1
Last edited by TristinX on February 28, 2013 5:57 AM
http://tinyurl.com/poeexpcalc

no need for community log on 6L its something you can calculate
Last edited by tidus1492 on February 28, 2013 5:58 AM
"
tidus1492 wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/poeexpcalc

no need for community log on 6L its something you can calculate

Whoever made that has the chance of 6L at 0.33%, or 1 in 300; based off the data we have so far, I can be about 95% sure that that percentage is wrong. It also has 5L chance at 1.63%, also 95% chance of being wrong. Best explanation: he pulled numbers out of nowhere or from a faulty source, and plugged them into a spreadsheet.
"
TristinX wrote:
6L Lioneye's Glare

To lazy to count up the number of 4Ls but it is well worth the watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qagSL36qgZU

Video's good enough I guess. 90 used, 0 5L on his way there. Added to data.
I agree with [your QQ,] problem is, everything else I played makes me come back here. PoE fucks me better.
—Worldbreaker
WE NEED EARS: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/860384
LMP/GMP OP: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/904631
READ THIS BEFORE POSTING: pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/402369
Last edited by ScrotieMcB on February 28, 2013 6:18 AM
Interesting.
I've been keeping a detailed log of my attempts on erqi.
Will NOT quit till I hit 6l xD
Once I do will be sure to post everything.
Over 500 orbs down already so expect plenty of data =(
IGN: Jerk, Princess

http://orbswap.info - the easy way to trade currency

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