Thought regarding 6 linking

"

Namcap wrote:

"

Bars wrote:

"

BndrIPL wrote:

Other than that I can't explain the richness of everybody.

You can make roughly an exalt an hour just speedfarming maps with IIQ/IIR and doing only the unidentified chaos recipe. Without a single sellable item drop.

What's baffling to me is how there are players who play for years and can't farm up currency worth a damn.

You get 80c per hour from the recipe? That's impressive. I think I found 6 rings in the last 4 days. Sitting on more amulets than I know what to do with for the last month. I would like to buy your RNG.

Not talking about standard economy, obviously. If you play there, you're either an established player with a solid bank or a masochist. Also, it's not only the recipe, it's chaos recipe + 6-socket + other miscellaneous currencies. Nevertheless, I have a suspicion you don't exactly clear maps fast, or don't clear too many maps.

'6 rings in the last 4 days' tells us nothing. '6 rings in 40 maps' would be more informative but I kinda doubt that. Assuming you clear 5 maps per hour, that would be 2 hours of playing per day for 4 days. I also assume you don't have IIR/IIQ.

im at about 50 an hour if i apply my self. but at this point i am not motivated enough to do so

you can make 2 50% rarity perandus rings pretty easily and then roll with some iiq gear crushing low maps fast for lewts . i have about 3 tabs full of rings belts and ammies.. i am just too lazy to convert them -.-.

alch and go .

as long as you dont do anything to really hurt your clear speed you can getaway with decent mf numbers

"

Timewar9 wrote:

here's some advice you'll probably ignore... your luck is streaky, don't use all your fusing at once, and try to use some when you see your luck running good.

It's amazing how many people believe that there's some sort of magical luck force floating through the ether that affects whether good or bad things happen at any given time.

Here's some advice that you will hopefully not ignore, because, unlike what you said, this is actually based in reality:

1) Luck is not magic.
2) If you roll a D6 now, in an hour, in a week, or in a year, the odds will still be one in six.
4) Barring some particularly terrible programming on GGG's part, there is no difference between using 1500 fuses consecutively and using them in spurts over an extended period of time.

We use the term "luck" to describe whether random events were positive or negative. You can't be inherently "lucky" in such a way that good things are more likely to happen to you, though.

"

Jennik wrote:

...4) Barring some particularly terrible programming on GGG's part, there is no difference between using 1500 fuses consecutively and using them in spurts over an extended period of time...

The implication I get is that people feel that that is the case - the RNG is flawed and therefore streaky, not that there is some unknown force causing it.

Unfortunately, without a quite large sample size, all that does is support that it is human nature to try to find patterns in random data. I typically find that to be much more of the issue on games with people suspecting streaky "luck" over some sort of external force. You see this sort of thing with other games like Monster Hunter also manifest as the jokingly-named "Desire Sensor" that supposedly adjusts drop rates to make item you want not drop (large elder dragon gems, for example).

That said, if GGG implemented their own RNG system (something you're pretty much told to never do for a system in production, alongside writing your own encryption method, as a programmer - you should use largely vetted systems, though of course some people write their own for better or worse), it's possible that it IS flawed. I find that very unlikely, but it very well is a possibility.

[...]

"

PleiadesBlackstar wrote:

"

Timewar9 wrote:

I six-linked 2 reaches in SC this league, both under 100 fusings. Now that you hate me, here's some advice you'll probably ignore... your luck is streaky, don't use all your fusing at once, and try to use some when you see your luck running good.

I hope you don't go to casinos.

(If you owe some bad people money but can't say it out loud, remain calm. I can't and won't help you but I think it would be best to not panic is all.)

Was this really directed at me? If so I realize luck doesn't work like that in the real world. PoE is RNG though, and if you've played enough, you've seen instances where the luck is running high.

"

damianus666 wrote:

Hi all,

I was thinking the other day, trying to unsuccessfully link my Coil again, having spent 100s of fusings on an item I really want my charachter to wear, why GGG has taken this design decison. I think it's wrong to deny the players from thier favourite item, simply by means of RNG.

While I do think to some degree, it's necessary to keep randomness in the process of linking the item, so that only the most dedicated players, actually link these gg items, keeping them rare and exclusive, has clear advantages.

However, my idea, that would not break the concept, is that GGG add an internal counter on every item, so that after a certain noumber of fusing used ( 100 would be ideal ), your odds start gradually improving. So that after 500 you would almost be gruaranteed a 6 link.

I really think this concept would not break the game, and would greatly reduce player frustration.

idk, I'm sure this idea came up frequently, let me know what you guys think.

500 is a way too low number.
I agree to that suggestion. I'm gonna politely ignore I_NO's stand on it (pls no keel mrs dinosoor d:).

The numbers should be more of a 2k, and more. Vorici is there for a reason - if you decide that you want to gamble, and maybe spend less than 1,5k, you should have a good chance of actually failing. You made a decision, you failed.

HOWEVER

There is that feeling, after spending 3k fuses, which cost you a lot of time to get, and getting NOTHING in return. This is the worst problem - you could as well just don't spend a single one, and you'd be in the same place. Knowing that you are moving forward, in some way, helps a lot, even if in reality you'll have to spend many more fusings.

I'd call it entropy system, similar to Evasion.

I'd say that it would count your fusings, and gradually increase your chance for 6L. Base chance can be adjusted a little bit (lower), so that you have a little lesser chance to get it in 1 fusing, but you'll have a lot more chance after throwing in 1500 (say, three-four times better).

In other words - adjust the curve, so that there will be less people getting it in 1 fusing, but also less people getting it after 5k+. There is actually a way to calculate using theory of probability, so you can maintain the amount of 6Ls in economy.

RNG is massively fun, but there is a point after which it starts to become a annoying farce, in which you don't want to take participate anymore. In other words, there is fun RNG, where it adds to playthrough, making it different and fun, and there is bad RNG, where you are artificially forced to repeat one task over and over again, until you finally tick.

One of the good/bad examples of bad RNGs is Darkest Dungeon - while game has great design and RNG based loot/events/levels, it's end-game is an annoying farce, in which you throw in your hard-earned heros to slot-machine, in which they may randomly die, even if you've done everything correctly.
There is nothing fun in such RNG.

"

Timewar9 wrote:

Was this really directed at me? If so I realize luck doesn't work like that in the real world. PoE is RNG though, and if you've played enough, you've seen instances where the luck is running high.

What you said here sounds exactly like the nonsense people in casinos say and the nonsense people who wear lucky socks say. That's because it is the same nonsense.

Our dumb monkey brains are very good at finding patterns where none exist, which is what you've done here. What you need to do is recognize that humans are pattern-seeking machines and take steps to avoid finding false patterns. Those "instances where the luck is running high" you mention are very obviously one of those false patterns.

Flip a coin 100 times. Consider one result lucky and the other result unlucky. Now count how many times over the course of those flips "the luck is running is high." Obviously there are going to be many of them, but not because of some woo nonsense. That's just how randomness works.

Getting five heads in a row is an expected result. The fact that you got heads five times in a row indicates absolutely nothing about future events. It doesn't mean you're any more or less likely to get heads the next time. It just means you got heads five times in a row.

"

Jennik wrote:

Getting five heads in a row is an expected result. The fact that you got heads five times in a row indicates absolutely nothing about future events. It doesn't mean you're any more or less likely to get heads the next time. It just means you got heads five times in a row.

I just wanna state something I find interesting with the coin flip - any exact series of n coin flips has the exact same chance of happening as any other series of n coin flips in a perfectly random series. For example, if you got heads 10 times in a row, it's a 1/1024 chance...but so is any other configuration, as there's 1024 configurations. A really easy test people can do from almost anywhere - http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=flip+100+coins will do 100 coin flips for you at 50/50 odds, I literally got 8 H in a row (7 -> 14).

Despite the fact that any combination is equally possible (and in 100 coin flips, you can have 90 different patterns IN CONSECUTIVE ORDER of 10 coin flips), people would still hunt for patterns. The truth of the matter is, if you get a result from a random system, the result will be a possible state - a coin flip situation is either heads or tails.

I find it quite interesting that so much on probability and randomness pretty much shows that most people are REALLY bad at understanding probability and randomness, and for accepting RNG for what it is. Hell, most people think that if something is a 1/100 chance, you should definitely have it happen by the 100th time, rather than having only about a 63% chance of it happening. On a related note, taking an impossibly high chance of fusing (1/1500, we know it's less than Vorici cost so it's definitely less than this), you only have about a 63% chance of getting a 6L by the 1500th fusing. (formula: 1-(1-p)^n, where n = number of trials and p = probability)

TL;DR: People are bad at random, (pseudo)-RNG is (pseudo)-RNG, "luck" is imaginary.

"

Jennik wrote:

What you said here sounds exactly like the nonsense people in casinos say and the nonsense people who wear lucky socks say. That's because it is the same nonsense.

...brains are very good at finding patterns where none exist, which is what you've done here. What you need to do is recognize that humans are pattern-seeking machines and take steps to avoid finding false patterns. Those "instances where the luck is running high" you mention are very obviously one of those false patterns.

Truth. Quoted FTW.