I am an advocate for a 2:1 map vendor formula, instead of 3:1 as it is currently. This means I think if you have two maps with the same base tileset, you should be able to vendor them for a map of +1 level. That way getting a T6 in a T10 would still not be a success, but it would be much more feasible to stockpile such low maps and convert a bunch of them into an appropriately tiered map. Or if you've ever played Diablo 2, lower maps would feel more like chipped/flawed gems, more like fodder for Teh Cube and less like utter trash. Plus, trading maps away tends to come close to a 2:1 formula anyway, it just involves a lot more work setting up maps in your shop.
So since I'm an advocate of that, you all should assume, quite reasonably, that I'm not fully satisfied with the amount of RNG in mapping at the moment.
I'm not a big fan of deterministic safety nets either, though.
Lol that again, didn't mark or whomever explain why that wouldn't work?
I am an advocate for a 2:1 map vendor formula, instead of 3:1 as it is currently. This means I think if you have two maps with the same base tileset, you should be able to vendor them for a map of +1 level. That way getting a T6 in a T10 would still not be a success, but it would be much more feasible to stockpile such low maps and convert a bunch of them into an appropriately tiered map. Or if you've ever played Diablo 2, lower maps would feel more like chipped/flawed gems, more like fodder for Teh Cube and less like utter trash. Plus, trading maps away tends to come close to a 2:1 formula anyway, it just involves a lot more work setting up maps in your shop.
So since I'm an advocate of that, you all should assume, quite reasonably, that I'm not fully satisfied with the amount of RNG in mapping at the moment.
I'm not a big fan of deterministic safety nets either, though.
Lol that again, didn't mark or whomever explain why that wouldn't work?
It was Bex (relaying a message from other devs), and it's their loss for deciding against it.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
So let's say, in a white map, the item drop table is called 5000 times. This is just an arbitrarily large number I pulled out my ass, but it'll do.
Now some GGG balancing guy decides that, for this map tier, they want you to average, um, let's say 100% increased quantity maps to sustain. So they make the chance of success 1/10000 per drop. That means a map with 100% quantity will have 10000 drops, and the average result would be 1 success.
And given a huge sample size, this is precisely what 100% quantity would average to. Seems completely reasonable so far, amirite?
However, let's look at a small sample size. The smallest, actually. Here's a breakdown of how likely it is to have a particular number of "successes" in the situation described, in a single map...
0 successes: 36.79% (.9999^10000)
1 success: 36.79% (.9999^9999*.0001*10000)
2 successes: 18.39% (.9999^9998*.0001^2*10000*9999/2)
3 successes: 6.13% (.9999^9997*.0001^3*10000*9999*9998/6)
4 successes: 1.53% (.9999^9996*.0001^4*10000*9999*9998*9997/24)
5+ successes: 0.37%
Spoiler
Now, just for contrast, let's do the math for a single 20% quantity map:
0 successes: 54.88% (.9999^6000)
1 success: 32.93% (.9999^5999*.0001*6000)
2 successes: 9.88% (.9999^5998*.0001^2*6000*5999/2)
3 successes: 1.98% (.9999^5997*.0001^3*6000*5999*5998/6)
4 successes: 0.30% (.9999^5996*.0001^4*6000*5999*5998*5997/24)
5+ successes: 0.03%
This is the part which surprises people. But it's nevertheless true. Even if you're rolling your maps well enough to sustain them on average, you should expect to get no return a full 36% of the time. That's over one third!
This is also why there is a myth that quantity does not effect map drops. This is false when looking at a large sample size, but given the situation I described, a single 20% map will have more successes than a 100% quality map 21% of the time, and the same number of successes 35% of the time. The higher quality map will do better 44% of the time, but with a small sample size it might seem that the two types of maps are merely "trading wins."
The high and low quantity maps also have about the same odds for a single successful drop (37% vs 33%). So if players are focusing on "reasonable" returns, merely chaining one map into another, quantity will still incorrectly appear not to matter.
Instead, the major advantage of higher quantity maps is their streaking potential. Running high quantity greatly improves your odds of "high RNG" instances of multiple successful map drops in a single map. This will still occur a minority of the time, but almost never occur on improperly rolled maps. These streaks are were you recoop on your investment and ensure map sustainment.
So in conclusion, lower your expectations for results from a single map, build a larger map pool, expect mediocre results a majority of the time, and open your heart and your currency wallet to RNGesus so that, with His blessing, He may decide to let it rain.
EDIT: BONUS SECTION
For you overachievers, here's what 140% quantity would look like.
0 successes: 30.12% (.9999^12000)
1 success: 36.14% (.9999^11999*.0001*12000)
2 successes: 21.69% (.9999^11998*.0001^2*12000*11999/2)
3 successes: 8.67%
(.9999^11997*.0001^3*12000*11999*11998/6)
4 successes: 2.60% (.9999^11996*.0001^4*12000*11999*11998*11997/24)
5+ successes: 0.78%
Spoiler
Nice post :-) It does sort of help fight that anecdotal feeling that the mods you rolled didn't really help much.
If someone doesn't feel like doing this sort of math the hard way, you can plug numbers in here:
If someone was willing to compile some sample map runs (with and without a few fixed points of increased quantity on the same maps we could probably establish rough map drop rates (for a given map/level). Not sure if 30 map runs of the same map at 0% and 30 runs at 20% and 30 runs at 50-60% might be enough depending on how much STD Dev there is between runs.
(chose 30 for the idea that a 20-30 sample size of a representative truly random population was adequate - iirc from Statistics.)
PoE Origins - Piety's story http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2081910
I had this cool idea for a pie chart, but I left a drink near my computer so OF COURSE my cat Mikey knocks it onto my keyboard, and now none of the keys work. I'm using my mobile at the moment, but it's tricky to Excel that way. Perhaps later; blame Mikey.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Jan 13, 2016, 9:17:18 AM
I had this cool idea for a pie chart, but I left a drink near my computer so OF COURSE my cat Mikey knocks it onto my keyboard, and now none of the keys work. I'm using my mobile at the moment, but it's tricky to Excel that way. Perhaps later; blame Mikey.
As fellow cat owner I can sympathize. RIP keyboard.
PoE needs better social features... and more cats!
The chart below shows what percentage of your overall map pool should come from streaks of X maps dropping within a single map, assuming you're rolling just enough quantity to have an EV of 1.
As you can see, streaks of 3 or 4 maps dropping within a single map constitute a very significant chunk of your overall pool, which you will be counting on. Even 5-map streaks will account for about 1.5% of your overall pool. I'd say it's only once you get in the range of 6+ decent map drops in a single map that you should start saying "RNG is RNG" because at that point, yeah, you're quite a bit more lucky than you're actually counting on.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Jan 15, 2016, 3:37:11 PM
I had this cool idea for a pie chart, but I left a drink near my computer so OF COURSE my cat Mikey knocks it onto my keyboard, and now none of the keys work. I'm using my mobile at the moment, but it's tricky to Excel that way. Perhaps later; blame Mikey.
I'm still amazed people think quantity drops more maps at all. And even if it does (which I'm pretty sure it doesn't) it's the most minuscule, tiniest, insignificant, absolute non-factor that it may as well be ignored. No matter the sample size.
All quantity does is drop more loot and more orbs. If you draw a high map drop seed, you drop a lot of maps, if you draw a low map drop seed you drop few to none.
Monster density will help, more monsters drop more maps if the seed says they can.
I call out map seeds regularly on stream as soon as it's apparent I'm in one (which is usually after the first few packs) and note the map drops from the map. 10 maps, 12 maps, 9 maps, etc. Do they ever come from high quantity maps? Sometimes, but for no other reason than high quantity maps don't prevent map seeds.
I'll find one from a recent stream and highlight/youtube it.
