Ended

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EconomySpoiler wrote:

Using your numbers entirely, at 1:10 it would be you spending 10 exalts for the 6l, not 13. Remember, average 5l is 130 fus so it's 1300 / 130, not 1300 / 100. So it would be a 10+ ex profit. :D

10 exalts lost on 5Ls, 3 exalts spent on 6L. My 13 is 1300/130 + 3, not 1300/100.

Not that it matters much, 7 or 10.

Unrelated note. Fusings are already 1.2:1 chaos in Rampage. I'm more inclined to believe players are spending them on Vorici 6Ls. If not, why were they 2.5:1 last league?

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dickhole_mcghee wrote:

[...]
p.s. Btw I think you meant EV and not EU in your post but I get the idea and am not disagreeing.

I actually meant expected utility, since expected value does not refelect real world decision behavior accurately (well neither SEU but it is at least a bit more advanced). I actually did not intend to start a discussion about this topic here, just wanted to share my thoughts when I saw you mention EU.

Let me tell you something.

The price of the goods is what you pay, not what they cost.
If people are paying 100 ex on a bow, which has 5 ex production costs, than the price of the bow is 100ex, not 5.

That Ferrari production costs is 10k $ - people are willing to pay 300k $
300k is the price of the Ferrari !
That new iPad production costs are 5$, you are willing to pay 500$ for it. 500$ is the price!
That drug production costs are 0.5$, you are willing to pay 50$ for it. 50$ is the price.

The less people buy this stuff, the more the price drops... supply/demand you know...
But its all psihological issue, nothing to do in beneficial department of the good.
Humans - we suck !

IF you can afford to produce Ferraries, iPads, Drugs... or 6l bows in PoE, and sell them for 1000% profit - go for it. If you can't, Well buy one ! ... (OR.. you can always drive a VW, like me).

You are missing the whole point in your post. You are clearly looking from the point of view of the crafter side, and his profit. You shouldn't. Profit for the Crafter is pure currency. Profit for the buyer is not, its psihological. When one have spent about 2.5k fus and end up with a 4l... one is gonna pay an extra 20 ex on a 6l (cause thats 800 fus, AND he gets 6l). Cause when One sees a 6l item he sees - 60ex (in fusings form), and NO 6l item. that is why he will pay that extra 20ex on the 6l. Hell yeah one will pay 1.5k for the next 6l item to the master. If one have blewed all his currency and did not get that 6l, you and your abstract % of success with RNG bullshit linking, doesn't concern one AT ALL.
That is about the linking.

So, about this one:

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EconomySpoiler wrote:

So yeah, 6-links are overpriced. This was reinforced pretty heavily by GGG when they added Vorici master crafting for 1,500 fusings. I'm amazed that some top players use this service sometimes. Vorici master crafting has a cost based entirely on the rarity of getting a 6-link (actually it's way more expensive on average since it's 1 in 1500 vs. 1 in 900), but if it were to be based on the net cost to acquire something, it would be significantly lower (500 fusings max).

I have a Bow right now which needs to be 6l (for the purpose of the build) I will gladly pay you 1000 fus, if you 6l the bow. Lets screw Vorici I will be psihologically richer with 500fus AND you will increase your fortune with 500fus. (100 in the WORST case scenario as you are saying). I am happy that i have saved 500 fusing, I dont care that you have spent 200 to 6l it, seriously. I have mine 6l bow, i am happy !

About the crafting - i just look at the item, and price it myself, Last day I was asking a guy for a Carcass, I was gladly willing to buy it for like 2ex (that is just how i see it worth for my build). He was selling it to for 20 chaos. That was a really good deal for me, just because his price was under mine pricing that i was willing to pay. It goes the same way around with the bows. Me personally will never pay 100ex for this stuff. that 10-15% more damage from that 6l, rather than 5l, or the crafed bow with 50-70 more base DPS, never seemed to be a good investment for poor boost of damage. On the other hand, I would gladly pay much more for an item that saves my ass, like Kaom, but paying like 80ex on a Mjolnir in HC ?! Seriously... i wont buy that item even for 40... but well, people seem to buy it for 80 so that is the price :) ... altough Mjolnir has nothing to do with crafting here...
But i guess its the same as saying

"Why people are willing to pay 100ex on a Mjolnir, when they can go Farm Dominus for it, and just get it by drop, drop chances are not so good, but HEY, sooner or later you will get one" Thats what I basically read in your post about linkning/crafting.

But i guess you are not one of the guys, that exploit the market, and us - "the noobs" to ripoff our skin for that 100ex bow. If you were one of those you would just make some fortune out of this junk, and shut your mouth., instead of posting in forum. You seem to me more like a guy who wish to have that 100ex bow so much, but cant afford to buy it... nor to craft it/link it with your super-duper-uber luck :D

Well let me tell me you something: if you expect to achieve some kind of a breakthrough in PoE players with your post, to stop buying this stuff, and indirectly affect the market, a.k.a. forcing Sellers to lower the prices... that ain gonna happen dude :)

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EconomySpoiler wrote:

There are just too many things wrong with your post for me to want to address everything. Here are two picked that seem pretty easy to respond to. I would recommend you reread everything if you want to understand this thread better.

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twiztedmind wrote:

"Why people are willing to pay 100ex on a Mjolnir, when they can go Farm Dominus for it, and just get it by drop, drop chances are not so good, but HEY, sooner or later you will get one" Thats what I basically read in your post about linkning/crafting.

The big differences between 'what you basically read' and 'what I actually typed' is that your example is 20x higher than mine, 100 ex vs. 5 ex, and that you are relying on a specific item drop which is highly randomized compared to crafting with a guaranteed currency stream.

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twiztedmind wrote:

Well let me tell me you something: if you expect to achieve some kind of a breakthrough in PoE players with your post, to stop buying this stuff, and indirectly affect the market, a.k.a. forcing Sellers to lower the prices... that ain gonna happen dude :)

I have no intentions of forcing the majority of players to boycott items. I only hope that more players will use these methods. The people who begin using these methods will become boycotters as an unintended, but helpful, consequence.

Actually, YES, its exactly the same 1/900 fus you MIGHT get a 6l.
1/900 runs of Dominus you can get the Mjolnir.
You can get the Mjolnir, AND the 6l by chance on 1/1, but you can get these on the 1/2500.
Specific or not specific, RNG is RNG.

Let me ask you something. How much currency profit you have already did with all this BLA you talking about ? 200-300ex ? more ? ... more like none.
You are just giving some pure theoretical logic, which I admire, and respect, cause I think in the same way like... well, always... BUT logic next to RNG is pretty much pure junk, and thats what you giving us right here - BLA. Its the same about asking why people are wiiling to pay tons of chaoses for 78 maps. Have ever considered if these are so value, why people selling them on first place ? I'll tell you why, RNG. One depletes his pool of 20, the other one grows one from 5pcs.

What the fk this suppose to mean "guaranteed currency stream" ?!
Let me put it this way if you have linked an item with 2500fus (62ex). Will you sell that one for 20ex more (for the 6l). Ok, maybe you will, and then take back your currency invested for the first one... from the next 2 sales. Lets assume you have invested 200 fus each of the other 2 items to 6l the other 2 items. Now you have losses of 2900 fus (72ex) and you are looking for 3 items overpriced with 20ex each =60ex- so your final financial result is still -12ex
And if you fail to 6l the second item with 900 fus ? then what you do ? These are many... and i mean MANY fusings. I highly doubt anyone in this game have about 20k fusings to maintain several fails to 6l even for himself, not to mention, to make proft with this.

P.S. You didn't respond to my offer. My bow, you 6l it. I give you 1000 fusings. Let me make you rich !

You make an Ex an hour by farming Dominus? It sounds like you need to play in a group to make this happen, and you probably need decent magic find gear. As a solo player, farming has hardly gotten me anywhere. I can't stand flipping items in trade, and I don't enjoy starting from scratch in new leagues to exploit the economy there, but this thread has made me think I should considering how poor I am for the amount of time I have logged (~1400 hours).

I do have some good gear, but that's more thanks to the generosity of players I've encountered than to my ability to make money.

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