6L Lotterys and "Fusings Used So Far"

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Cataca wrote:

A nice example would be a room of monkeys typing on typewriters. They type in random letters and signs for an infinite time. The chance of something useful coming of that after an hour is very slim, the chance of producing, say the Bible word for word, letter for letter after an infinite amount of time is 100%.

probability is cool.

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Cataca wrote:

A nice example would be a room of monkeys typing on typewriters. They type in random letters and signs for an infinite time. The chance of something useful coming of that after an hour is very slim, the chance of producing, say the Bible word for word, letter for letter after an infinite amount of time is 100%.

Very good example.
Because, you see, your example uses memory and can use a word for future sentences.

Same is true in POE. Nothing is truly random there either. Why? As i said before, while the developers do wish to use truly random stuff they can't do so. To expensive. To resource consuming.

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Cataca wrote:

Well, if you see it like a coin toss, then each fusing has the same probability of 6 linking ie. a one in 1500 chance (or something). As time goes on and fusings are spent tho, it becomes more probable that the event occurs compared to the very beginning. This is your usual bell curve. It still means that your fusing has a one in 1500 chance to 6 link after either 1 or 1500 fusings were used, the 6 linking event however will probably occur somewhere near the 1500 mark (near beeing used loosely here).

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

The most probable number of fusing orbs needed is 1. The probability that a success occurs at n trials, failing all others before that, with each trial having success probability p is (1-p)^(n-1) * p. This is maximized among positive integers at n=1.

While it is true that if you make m attempts, and record the number of successes s, that the most probable values of s will be near mp, the number of orbs that has been spent so far on a 6L lottery isn't particularly useful.

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A nice example would be a room of monkeys typing on typewriters. They type in random letters and signs for an infinite time. The chance of something useful coming of that after an hour is very slim, the chance of producing, say the Bible word for word, letter for letter after an infinite amount of time is 100%.

Yeah, but an event with probability 100% isn't guaranteed to occur anyway (plus, the Bible is pretty small once we put infinities on the table. :D)

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syrioforel wrote:

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

The most probable number of fusing orbs needed is 1. The probability that a success occurs at n trials, failing all others before that, with each trial having success probability p is (1-p)^(n-1) * p. This is maximized among positive integers at n=1.

While it is true that if you make m attempts, and record the number of successes s, that the most probable values of s will be near mp, the number of orbs that has been spent so far on a 6L lottery isn't particularly useful.

Its more likely to hit the mean than beeing extremely lucky or unlucky. Sure, things can happen either way, but you dont expect them to. If you couldnt predict some average, probability would have no use whatsoever.

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syrioforel wrote:

Yeah, but an event with probability 100% isn't guaranteed to occur anyway (plus, the Bible is pretty small once we put infinities on the table. :D)

Given infinite time, sure it is. Replacing starved monkeys and training them to write on typewriters would be a bitch tho.

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Cataca wrote:

Given infinite time, sure it is. Replacing starved monkeys and training them to write on typewriters would be a bitch tho.

^^ this

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Its more likely to hit the mean than beeing extremely lucky or unlucky.

I'm not sure what you mean, you're saying you think it's better to gamble after 1k fusings used? If so you need to go back to school.

weird double

6l fotm unique armor = 25ex

lottery payout 10-12 ex

it take special kind of idiots to participate in this

always laugh my ass of when they make a lottery for 4 offcolours on their armor with a payout of 20c


...whatever there is a sucker born every minute

conisidering i take all the risk in this i want at leats a realistic payout not some 10ex who can buy a 6l Cod for 10ex ? noone thats it

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Braunar wrote:

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Its more likely to hit the mean than beeing extremely lucky or unlucky.

I'm not sure what you mean, you're saying you think it's better to gamble after 1k fusings used? If so you need to go back to school.

Seen as a single fuse? No, the chances are the same as the first, or the 3000th.

If its a normal distribution, and it is, it still stands to reason that the majority of the 6 links will happen between 1 and 3000 and of those a major part within 500-2500 fuses. It is more likely that the event will occur there than at one, or 3000. There is no way to know if it is the case that specific time, but is more likely than not.

You'd still have to be an idiot to gamble on it, because random is random, and a 0,06% chance to 6 link leaves you with some huge variance before an event is probable to occur.

At any rate, your attitude needs some work.

Lotteries are a tax on the dumb. You will never have positive expected value from a lottery.