6L Lotterys and "Fusings Used So Far"

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Xaxarius wrote:

Why does anyone care about this???? Each trial is independent and memoryless.

That's obviously wrong.

Why?

There is no true random stuff in a game like poe, would be way to expensive.

It gives the illusion that its due to happen.

Ever seen a roulette table in a casino? Its the same thing as the sign that post the wheel history.

The better question is why would anyone participate in a scam like 6l lotteries?

lotteries is nice i mean if you win actualy you get 10-15exalts what so bad about it? the lottery guy dont want try hes luck so he better give away 10-15ex for 6L than pay 1500fusings wich is about 25ex

wait you mean there are ppl who will give me 1500+ fuse and all I need is a 10EX reward? How does this work? Do I need to be steamer?

you cant profit off that much..i have seen same lottery guy for 5days stright he didnt manage get 6L if u could flip one 6L a day yeah you could profit but it isnt that easy lol

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Aim_Deep wrote:

wait you mean there are ppl who will give me 1500+ fuse and all I need is a 10EX reward? How does this work? Do I need to be steamer?

do you even english?

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DarthSki44 wrote:

Well if you consider 6L lottery a gamble, then previous history makes sense to me if I were going to "place a bet"

This would be similar to looking at the past result history at the roulette wheel at a casino.

While technically the chances of the odds themselves remaining the same exist, the virtual probability of "you" specifically winning can seem more feasible given the short window you are in. So basically if you are placing a smart bet, based on averages, then betting on a fuse lottery that is already 1000 fuse in, seems like a smarter bet.

Of course statistically this is irrelevant, but that is how gambling works. You try to increase your odds of winning strategically.

This is totally wrong.

you might be on to something if you see a set of dice repeatedly roll 2 for 1000 times in a row....it might mean the dice are nor "fair". Sure it can happen naturally but it's more likely your assumptions are wrong

but you don't have that info here.

you can only talk about the future probability as of right now.

Like, say the true probability to 6L is 1/1000 you have like a 23% chance to NOT get a 6L in 1500 trials. It doesn't matter what happened before, it's all about looking forward.

The only way the past matters is if you can determine if the die is fair or not

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overpowdered wrote:

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Xaxarius wrote:

Why does anyone care about this???? Each trial is independent and memoryless.

That's obviously wrong.

Why?

There is no true random stuff in a game like poe, would be way to expensive.

But, independent events... probability... etc...

aw fk that nvm

NUTHIN IS RANDUM IN POOE

Gambler's Fallacy ofc.

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Veny wrote:

Gambler's Fallacy ofc.

^

Well, if you see it like a coin toss, then each fusing has the same probability of 6 linking ie. a one in 1500 chance (or something). As time goes on and fusings are spent tho, it becomes more probable that the event occurs compared to the very beginning. This is your usual bell curve. It still means that your fusing has a one in 1500 chance to 6 link after either 1 or 1500 fusings were used, the 6 linking event however will probably occur somewhere near the 1500 mark (near beeing used loosely here).

A nice example would be a room of monkeys typing on typewriters. They type in random letters and signs for an infinite time. The chance of something useful coming of that after an hour is very slim, the chance of producing, say the Bible word for word, letter for letter after an infinite amount of time is 100%.