General Discussion - 6L Lotterys and "Fusings Used So Far" - Forum

" Cataca wrote: " Braunar wrote: " Its more likely to hit the mean than beeing extremely lucky or unlucky. I'm not sure what you mean, you're saying you think it's better to gamble after 1k fusings used? If so you need to go back to school. Seen as a single fuse? No, the chances are the same as the first, or the 3000th. If its a normal distribution, and it is, it still stands to reason that the majority of the 6 links will happen between 1 and 3000 and of those a major part within 500-2500 fuses. It is more likely that the event will occur there than at one, or 3000. There is no way to know if it is the case that specific time, but is more likely than not. You'd still have to be an idiot to gamble on it, because random is random, and a 0,06% chance to 6 link leaves you with some huge variance before an event is probable to occur. At any rate, your attitude needs some work. More fusing successes happen between 1-100 than between 1500-1600, or any other interval of length 100. I encourage you to check the math yourself, The distribution function for number of trials needed for one success to occur is not a normal distribution. However, the distribution function for the number of successes after m trials tends to a normal distribution as m gets large. " Given infinite time, sure it is. No, it just has probability 1 of occurring. Probability 1 events are not guaranteed to occur once infinities get involved. IGN: SplitEpimorphism Last edited by syrioforel on Sep 13, 2014, 11:52:49 AM	Posted by syrioforel on Sep 13, 2014, 11:46:29 AM Quote this Post
Hello, i don t really understand the lottery mechanic : why would i spend a fuse on someone armor to win some ex since i could spend this fuse on one of my own armor and all benefit will come to me if i link it and sell it. In the end, simply, why would there be more chance of 6 Linking spending a fuse on someone else armor instead of mine?	Posted by Tistuto on Sep 13, 2014, 12:18:41 PM Quote this Post
People are fucking stupid thats why. Git R Dun!	Posted by Aim_Deep on Sep 13, 2014, 12:24:33 PM Quote this Post
This is why. A comprehensive, easy on the eyes loot filter: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1245785 Need a chill group exiles to hang with? Join us: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1251403	Posted by Antnee on Sep 13, 2014, 2:32:01 PM Quote this Post
Why all this hate, its just a gamble, and the house stays safe. 6L is a gamble, i linked 4 items by my self between 130 and 460 fus. The last time i tried i lost 30ex in fuses, shoud tried to lottery it, 10 ex or 15 for a lucky fuse seems fair, or shoud it be 50 or 100 pay off for linking legacy shavs? This game mechanics rely on vegas dreams. The worst feeling is investong much after hours of grind and then...nothing, at least its just your time that was lost not your house ( that if cos of the game you didnt neglect your job :) and the bank is knocking long after your wife left you taking the kids... Mom i told you not to disturb me, im writing somthing very important on the forum and i dont want that coco and the cookies!!!....such a noob... ing: mater_suspiriorum_pl	Posted by Fleshmarket on Sep 13, 2014, 2:42:04 PM Banned Quote this Post
The distribution of a single fuse linking the item is Bernoulli. The distribution of the number of fuses required to link is Geometric (aka Negative Binomial). The distribution of the number of 6-links from 1500 fuses is Binomial (which can be approximated by a Normal density as the number of trials becomes large). Everyone please go and Google those three things and try to really understand the difference between them. Last edited by Vuxra on Sep 13, 2014, 5:13:48 PM	Posted by Vuxra on Sep 13, 2014, 5:09:33 PM Quote this Post
" Vuxra wrote: The distribution of a single fuse linking the item is Bernoulli. The distribution of the number of fuses required to link is Geometric (aka Negative Binomial). The distribution of the number of 6-links from 1500 fuses is Binomial (which can be approximated by a Normal density as the number of trials becomes large). Everyone please go and Google those three things and try to really understand the difference between them. Thank you. IGN: SplitEpimorphism	Posted by syrioforel on Sep 13, 2014, 5:28:55 PM Quote this Post
Are you a magician mister...what is that you speak of. I cant still understand how that silicone can be used for computing rather than making larger breasts... but thank you mr magician... But beside that the count on the used fusings can be just a incentive as mentioned how many ppl trusted or tried their luck, i watched some preety crazy luck on twitch, few jewels and bam then some fus and bam. Its still neat when you hit the jackpot. If i woud say "7 fus used so far" what woud you say? Scammer, noob? In fact we coud do a mass fusing rush evry player online woud 1 fuse try someones 6socket, i wonder how woud it go, a massive fusing iniciative, sort of a socialist wonderland. ing: mater_suspiriorum_pl Last edited by Fleshmarket on Sep 13, 2014, 6:07:01 PM	Posted by Fleshmarket on Sep 13, 2014, 6:00:13 PM Banned Quote this Post
Okay I have no idea why people are dumb. Even if you gave the person 1 fuse and you 6 linked his item and won his 10 exalt prize, you are still a loser and completely dumb (assuming if he pays at all). That's because it is not a lottery, you do not "win" a jackpot. This is like sending someone else to buy a lottery ticket for you and if you win they get half the money. You could literally used the same fuse and 6 link your own item and gained more profit, the lottery itself is using the 6-link on an item. If the ultimate prize a 6-link why would you not accept someone near a 6-link price as a prize when your fuse can make a 6-link. Last edited by RagnarokChu on Sep 13, 2014, 7:39:57 PM	Posted by RagnarokChu on Sep 13, 2014, 7:39:16 PM Quote this Post
" Fleshmarket wrote: Why all this hate, its just a gamble, and the house stays safe. 6L is a gamble, i linked 4 items by my self between 130 and 460 fus. The last time i tried i lost 30ex in fuses, shoud tried to lottery it, 10 ex or 15 for a lucky fuse seems fair, or shoud it be 50 or 100 pay off for linking legacy shavs? This game mechanics rely on vegas dreams. The worst feeling is investong much after hours of grind and then...nothing, at least its just your time that was lost not your house ( that if cos of the game you didnt neglect your job :) and the bank is knocking long after your wife left you taking the kids... Mom i told you not to disturb me, im writing somthing very important on the forum and i dont want that coco and the cookies!!!....such a noob... wtf how is 10ex payout fair ? as you said the house stays safe this means you have no fucking risk at all and this no risk at all is rewarded with 1/3 of the normal 6l price so you give a generous payout of 10ex and get a 20-25ex item in return without having any risk at all this is what annoys me the most its baisicly a really clever scam and ppl fall for it unbelievable i once got a probation calling someone out on his 6l taryns he did lotterys and sold the item afterwards for 2-3 times the payout value https://poe-ssf.herokuapp.com/. Join the fun. SSF HC Legacy Witch Lvl 53 Last edited by ventiman on Sep 13, 2014, 7:44:53 PM	Posted by ventiman on Sep 13, 2014, 7:43:00 PM Quote this Post