Chromatics is too hard

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syrioforel wrote:

RRRG on a pure ES gear is going to take you around 2500 chromes in expectation -- and even at that there's still a sizeable chance of it not happening. Save your currency :)

Just to confirm this:

80% of pure ES sockets (best known estimate) are blue, 10% green, 10% red. Avoiding an 80% chance four times in a row is 1 in 625; however, that chance might give you GGGR, which would also be failure. About 1/4 of the zero-blue would be GGGR (Pascal's Triangle, 1 4 6 4 1, 4/16)... and 4x625=2500.

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/378472/page/1


Chroming, fusing, jewelling are fine. I play self found, don't even get a single orb that I never picked up (or trade through vendor) and own 5 6Ls, 2 found and 3 linked myself. I often 5 out of 6 off colour items.

The picture above shows 5 off colour within 71 chromes, I've seen all 6 off colour several times, I've seen 6 green on a pure strength.

I've also, at times, used over 1500 chromes to get my desired colours.

The reason this is fine is 2 fold.

1) You can, for chromes, choose a better base item, that's your call. Or you can min/max and take the lesser probable route, your call.

2) Currency use aside, Chromes, Jeweller's and Fusings have no other use. Other orbs are crafting and map ingredients but there is only one use as a crafting mat for these three. They also drop in large quantities. No? Honestly, they really do.

Chromatics drop as chromatics, or as tricolour linked items, or are purchased from vendor.
Jeweller's drop as jeweller's, or as 6 soc items, or are purchased from vendor.
Fusings drop as fusings, or are purchased from vendor.

All three can be acquired from the basic common orbs/fragments.

I often find myself with 500+ jewller's and chromes if I don't have a project I am throwing them on as they drop. I will then find myself a project to sink them.

I wanted to touch on the reported chrome chance for off colour.
While there probably is truth in the 10% chance for off colour guestimate, I don't think it is as simple as that.

I'm quite convinced that there is a mechanic which will use an altering 'seed' for a varied time. Say while spamming chromes, you may hit on this altered seed and for x seconds, the off colour chance is raised to 30/40/50% or w/e. I see far too many mathematical unlikely results to accept a flat constant 10%.

Similarly with jeweller's and fusings, and this is where I think the altered seed is 'global' or at least present for jewelling and fusing. Many times will a successful 6S result be followed by a successful 6L result and then even, maybe, a successful 4 or 5 out of 6 off colour, in a few seconds.

This theory was kind of backed up a little, too, when the whetstone/scrap mechanic was added.
The already present weighted seed being utilised on demand.

I accept, though, that my 'global' theory (chromes/fuses/jeweller's) might not be all three, but only two, being that scraps/stones don't affect chroming.


Food for thought.