so lost ark was the poe killer

This game is no where near dying.
Neither here now, nor anytime in the next 2-4 years.

Will it have an insane player base during that entire time?
Nope. Maybe? Yes! All of the above?

Who knows. Tbh, it doesn't matter.
This game has longevity like no one's business.

Sure it's lost players, tons of em.
And by lost, I mean, they will literally never play again.

It also has tons of players who are just taking a break.
And by tons, I mean literally hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

People love to see a number on steam charts and make claims about it, but the reality is, those 82 thousand people literally only represent the people playing it at that point.
Realistically there could be 82 thousand more people playing this league, just asleep on the other side of the globe.

And don't misunderstand me, I'm not trying to paint a pretty picture here or say numbers aren't down, they clearly are.

What I'm trying to say is that number isn't a good representation of POE's "mortality," so to speak. There are so many factors that go in to that number.

Big things, like the economy, world events, other game releases...
But also random things like the weather, time of day, day of the week, state of specific internet servers, events happening of interest that appeal to the core demographic of the game that happen to coincide with it's launch... (The list goes on.)
As such, that number goes up and down all the time. Chris has even shown this in regards to how they did league release scheduling.

But the real hard truth here, is that POE has MAD player retention in the long term.

People might not play this league, hell they might not play the next two or three...
But a ton of those people are still VERY aware of POE.

Browsing subreddits, chatting on discords, reading patch notes and viewing league vids.
Even if they're not gunna play, just to see what's going on.
And even more players on top of that will pop in to play if their friends happen to be playing this league. You get 2-3 people in a guild/friend circle discord all playin' together, and talkin' about how good the current league is... and you start trickling in those sleepers.
People who have been looking for a good reason to come back.

And when a league drops that does something crazy, or buffs a favorite class, or adds some wild item, or turns the game on it's head.
You bet your ass you're gunna have a ton of people playing this game, some of which haven't played in so long they're gunna gunna say "lul what's a cluster jewel" or "wtf, where's zana? this isn't funny guys, where is she."

To get on a bit of a soapbox here...
There are three truly great challenges that any new online game must face and overcome to know success:

1. Obscurity (Becoming known. Slow and steady growth, explosive ad/cc campaigns, or whatever else gets the game talked about. Foster a community and make access to the game's information and news VERY available. This keeps players current and old, up to date and ensures that even if people aren't playing, they're listening, they're talking, they're waiting.)

2. Stagnation (Content. Keep it coming and keep it fresh. Doesn't matter if it's good or bad. Release updates often. Don't be afraid to piss people off. At the end of the day, that's just more people talking about your game. As long as SOMETHING is new, as long as there's SOMETHING to grind for, the button pushers of the world will login to get it when no one else will and that keeps the big wheel a turnin'.)

3. Impetuosity (Plan ahead. If you react to every whim of the player base, you'll never see the forest through the trees. Conversely, if you spend your time staring at the sky to avoid the gaze of the trees, you're gunna run SMACK in to one. Always be thinking long term and judge all decisions for your game based on the FUTURE you want it to have, not based on the present you want to avoid or sustain. This is much like being a good doctor. A bad doctor is one whom relieves symptoms instead of diagnosing and curing the problem. A good doctor looks for the cure, but also doesn't assume you're healthy simple because you're asymptomatic. He knows prevention is always the best remedy. Knowing when something deserves a reaction, and when it doesn't, is a rare skill and takes cultivation of a specific sort of mindset many people do not possess.)

In my personal opinion, POE has knocked all three of these out of the park. And while there can definitely be other factors, cementing this trifecta will prove or not whether you have the staying power to become "too big to fail." And while giant's can definitely be slain, it's often the case that their downfall was because of one of the above things.

Chris has demonstrated time and time again that he can non-trivially navigate POE's development through those awkward waters that flow between the coasts of "his vision" and "community vision" often with compromise as his guiding light.

In my opinion it's a good thing that people are playing LA and other games. Diablo is gunna be a good thing too.
Because at the end of the day, they're still out there.
All those players, the memories, the friends, the discord servers, everything.
Yeah, some people quit, but most are just... on pause.
Real ARPG fans don't quit, they just take a few leagues off and come back for more. (Think about how many people install D2 every 1-3 years to relive the glory.)

And when POE2 hits, sure as shit, they're gunna all come crawling back.
Out from under their rocks and hidey holes.
Some to talk shit about the game, some to decide for themselves, and others because they're fans of the game and it's legacy.

I personally know at least 3 or 4 dozen people who have been waiting for POE2 before they get back in to it.
Many just tired of the same acts grind, or just don't find the new content to be enough for them to get back in.

But some of these are the same people who typically get to maps and quit shortly after they get to red maps, or just before.
And not because of any one system or reason, simply because they treat all games like this.

Revolving doors for their endless entertainment.
Something that can hold their fancy as a shiny new bauble for their tiktok length attention span and then they can move on to the next.

I'm no wizard, just a veteran game dev and ludophile clackin' away on a keyboard older than most of the people reading this.
But Assuming no major setbacks and assuming POE2 isn't literal hot garbage, I don't foresee it getting "killed" anytime in the next decade.

Heck, but what do I know? I'm just an grumpy veteran video game veteran who foolishly dedicated their life to studying games instead of becoming something useful like a lawyer or a professional plate-spinner.
C'est la vie.

Anyway, that's my bit.
Feel free to add me in game if you're chill, this league's gunna be a slow one for me, but I'll definitely be on and off all league, as usual.

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Cabledragon wrote:

And don't misunderstand me, I'm not trying to paint a pretty picture here

Really? You aren't?

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Cabledragon wrote:

It also has tons of players who are just taking a break. And by tons, I mean literally hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

I personally know at least 3 or 4 dozen people who have been waiting for POE2 before they get back in to it.

Chris has demonstrated time and time again that he can non-trivially navigate POE's development through those awkward waters that flow between the coasts of "his vision" and "community vision" often with compromise as his guiding light.

There are millions of players waiting to play?

You know between 36 to 48 of them. Care to share their names, what cities do they live in? Are they male or female? Have you had lunch with them recently?

Chris is a god who closes his eyes and slams more players! Yeeeaahhh!




Look, Im not trying to rain on your hype/positivity/white knight parade. Believe what you want. But I did read all of your post, and it is a PR/hype piece.

Imagine waiting in a hidey hole for a PoE expansion. It's not going to be some amazing new game y'know. It's going to be more of the same, only done differently. New campaign (you'll be over it in a few weeks), new gem system (something PoE1 could do with so I'm glad it's getting it), new ascendancies (as just said), new skills (so basically it's another league) and MAYBE new weapons (after 10 years, about time)...that's about all we know as far as 'new' is concerned. The rest is the same-but-different: same endgame, same gameplay, same *engine*, same trade system...

(As an aside, I think it's that last one that could make or break 'Path of Exile 2'. This is their one and only chance to get the fuck out of 2013 as far as trading is concerned. It's okay. Diablo 3 is no longer a dirty term, nor is 'marketplace'. All those ad hoc indexers are doing is simulating a marketplace anyway, just with none of the consumer security or user-friendliness. Two things I know Exiles think they don't want but then they become a victim of PoE's ruthless UI and suddenly their tune changes.)

That people might be quitting that same but different but on a smaller scale (league to league) for an MMO or any other Lifestyle game is something GGG should definitely notice and consider as regards 'PoE 2'. Sure, PoE might have no competition in the ARPG department, but the ARPG department isn't the only one in the store. Sooner or later, if even the best isn't good enough, folks are gonna find something else. And they're not going to come back unless the 'new' thing is somehow more attractive than their new hobby/obsession/lifestyle game.

I'm not convinced the ARPG genre as an online/shared experience isn't dying. PoE rezzed it and did a very fine job of it, but the others are either going more rogue-like with their replayability or MMO-ish with their daily incentives. Like I said, the ARPG as a GAAS is an abomination. Once was enough.

Reaches #8 on top current players list, "geam is daed". Go touch some grass will you, you utterly delusional nerd.

Because the development mentality of PoE can be summed up as "add a fresh pile of shit on top of the big pile of shit that already exists to make it look more attractive", the eventual decline in player numbers was inevitable from a very long time ago. Saying that the game is dead right now is completely delusional though.

Lost Ark the PoE killer? You mean the same p2w, time-gated, extremely repetitive game whose population is half bots-half real players?

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FedeS wrote:

Lost Ark the PoE killer? You mean the same extremely p2w game whose population is half bots-half real players?

No joke when they did a ban wave it hit aprox about 500k the amount of real players was apparently around 140-160k?

LMAO

Granted the bots are back so it didn't really do anything

Played a little of lost ark, it was... very shiny.

Tutorials were top notch, I missed having my hands held so tenderly in a game.
Got bored after 20ish hours and bought elden ring.

I think there's a lot of reasons people are leaving. Top for me is that I simply do not know what's killing me. Do I need more armor? Do I need more resist? I have no clue, and there's no cues within the game that would tell me after the fact.

Then learning that the chinese client already has this, and a multitude of straight up excuses why they can't prioritize this on the NA clients...meh, it's not 1989 anymore, this stuff should be standard for any modern game.

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Ruby_Lux wrote:

At least in lost ark everything is 'viable' and nothing is bricked buildwise, unlike poe.

I want to see you go do any end game raids with build that isnt EXACTLY the same as the best possibility for your class. Not because its not possible. Because people will kick you out of their group as soon they will see you are not using the most optimal build that exist.

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