Streamers started quitting in 3.14 ... But GGG was like hold my beer for 3.15
" do you not understand how to read? LOL. its not ONE NUMBER, its concurrent viewers, overall hours watched, and concurrent streams that are ALL down across the board. these are indisputable facts. look at the poe player count on steam, its absolutely horrendous and we are only TWO WEEKS into the new league. you can use literally any quantifiable metric you want and it paints the same picture. the game is in a bad state and its evident on twitch AND on the game itself. less people are playing and less people are watching. period |
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"  Please go on about your imaginary statistics. Spoiler alert, youre wrong and thats literally the exact trend every league. Ironically enough you think one number is the only one that matters, when it doesnt. Stop pretending like you reddit mathematicians know anything. BTW, like steam numbers, twitch numbers in actuality mean nothing because people are going to be less engaged with other reasons regardless so stop trying to validate your opinions with assumptions. Harvest sucks! But look at my decked out gear two weeks in! Labyrinth salt farm miner. "But my build diversity" , "Game is too hard!" - Meta drone playing the same 1-3 builds for years. Last edited by Tin_Foil_Hat#0111 on Aug 6, 2021, 5:07:10 PM
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Just lets this game die and move one, I half the playerbase of POE wasnt videogame addicts they would have gotten the message way sooner and more intensely already... Stop playing the game, stop giving them money, stop recommending the game. Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me.
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" Is there something wrong with your reading comprehension or are you simply immune to understanding numbers? You've even outlined the statistics in that picture and it completely disproves everything you're saying. Dude, this is embarassing. So lets see what that diagram tells us: 2020 December: Ritual releases Average concurrent viewers goes up to 28.6k and average # of poe streams goes up to 484. Hours watched on twitch goes up to 21.2 million hours. Compared to previous month this is a 447% gain in concurrent viewers, 206% gain in amount of streamers and 448% increase in hours watched. 1 month later, meaning the second month of Ritual # viewers falls by 30%, # of streamers falls by 12% and hours watched goes down by 37%. 2021 Mars: Ultimatum Releases. Average concurrent viewers goes up to 26.6k and average # of poe streams goes to 440. Hours watched on twitch goes up to 19.1 million hours. The second month of Ultimatum sees a 47.8% drop in concurrent viewers, 22.5% drop in number of streamers and 46% drop in hours watched. Now lets look at expedition: 2021 July: Expedition releases - Average concurrent viewers, 21.4k 21,64/28,6 = 0,74 -> 26% LESS concurrent viewers than ritual - Average # of streamers: 370 370/484 = 0,76 -> 24% less people streaming the game than in ritual - Hours watched: 2.56 million hours 2.56/21,2 = 0,12 -> 88% less hours watched than ritual. Obviously the 2.56 million hours watch shouldn't be considered. The reason why PoE wasn't watched on streams during July 2021 was because it was the end of ultimatum and ultimatum literally had no one playing the game during the last month. Since Expedition was released July 23d, only 8 days (23-31 of july) had any viewers watching Path of Exile. During rest of July no one watched PoE due to how horrible Ultimatum endgame was which is the reason why average hours watched during this league start only was 2.56 million hours. June saw a sudden uptick in viewers which peaked my interest. This was probably because the Ultimatum Gauntlet released during June. Comparing Expedition to Ritual: - 26% less concurrent viewers during release - 24% less people streaming the game during release - 88% less hours watched (Irrelevant statistic) Now, the interesting figures will be the August statistics. This is where the REAL drop off in twitch numbers will be revealed. Expedition peak player count has already reached 47.9k today (Friday). That's a 47.9/116 = 0.40 -> 60% drop in peak player numbers after TWO WEEKS. The second month of a league is going to be more interesting when reviewing twitch statistics. The second month of ritual had 19.8k concurrent viewers, averaged 423 streamers and 13.3 million hours watched. Keep in mind Ritual had 423/370 = 1.14 -> 14% MORE streamers streaming the game during it's SECOND month than Expedition did during it's RELEASE month. So please keep yapping about Reddit mathmatics. It's apparrent that' you're completely illiterate when it comes to understanding numbers. Last edited by Deadandlivin#2745 on Aug 6, 2021, 7:34:40 PM
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Ah look. Hes cherry picking everything an ignoring the actuality of the numbers and pretending that he is interpreting the numbers again. No surprise. Intentional misinterpretation of numbers in not only the steam chart values and trends but in the twitch statistics too.
Ignoring trends and cherry picking 1 data point for an argument to "prove" youre right heh. If you actually go through the data and actually interpret it correctly with the trends and average, 70% "drop in hours watched" isnt by any means something that hasnt happened before. Hints why i bracketed them. In addition to this, you want to go on about more people streaming the game yet you can clearly see more people streaming the game doesnt equal more hours watched or more concurrent viewers. Ignoring numbers across the board while claiming to be "right about statistics" is exactly what reddit math is but youre making observations purely on the bases that you want it to fit for your argument and not digesting it as a whole, which is again, why you are wrong <]:^]
Spoiler
Also league started late, using only 1 week of July which is why the numbers look weird, because delays like that dont happen, which is also why the number of viewers and views and time watched is still going up.
So again, you being disingenuous and misinterpreting numbers. Harvest sucks! But look at my decked out gear two weeks in! Labyrinth salt farm miner. "But my build diversity" , "Game is too hard!" - Meta drone playing the same 1-3 builds for years. Last edited by Tin_Foil_Hat#0111 on Aug 7, 2021, 12:18:39 AM
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" Here we go again. Remember the first time when you ran with your tails behind your legs because everyone had to point out to you how repulsively bad you are at interpreting numbers when you said Average players per month was a better metric for measuring the success of a league than peak players? You were laughed at so hard that you didn't show your face in that thread again. You also compared week 1 numbers of Expedition to Month 3 numbers of Harvest in an attempt to show that Expedition is as succesful as other leagues. And you DARE talking about cherry picking?! So in my post, what was cherry picked exactly? The picture you provided had 4 leagues in display. In it, I compared 3 of them. I choose Expedition which is the league in question as it's recieving all the backlash, Ritual because it's considered the best league ever to many players (And the one with the best success in player numbers) and ultimatum because it's the league in between. I could very well choose Heist aswell, but that league was a 50/50 league, 50% loved it and 50% hated it. I'd rather compare Expedition to an actual liked league. But that's besides the point. So please point out HOW I cherry picked numbers? Are my numbers cherry picked because I choose to compare Expedition to Ritual? Should I have chosen a less succesful league to prove my point that you're wrong in saying that Expedition is performing as well as other leagues? What numbers am I ignoring and misinterpreting? You just say things and you provide no numbers yourself. Probably because, as you remember, when you actually give us numbers we're quick to point out WHY and HOW you're using them incorrectly. Just like when you saw the average players of last 30 days and compared them to average players of july and tried to tell everyone that Expedition was GROWING in player numbers. It's f***ing laughable.
Spoiler
 Lets see all the bullshit you said in one paragraph: Harvest league had 18k players during their 1 month average. ACTUAL NUMBERS:  Harvest starts in June. Average numbers is 30 400 Delirium also ends in June so Harvest share average number statistics with Delirium during June. July starts, it's the second month of Harvest. Average players is 34 800 August starts, it's the third and last month of Harvest. Average players is 18 800. And you DARE talking about cherrypicking? You're not even cherry picking, you're intentionally picking the WRONG statistics to try and decieve other people. Onto your other RIDICULOUS conclusion: "and that number is that number is gaining as more people are seemingly returning to the league..." This statement made me believe that you aren't actually trolling. Just that you are mathematically illiterate and probably never progressed any form of math or stats class beyond 9th grade. So lets look at the numbers and how you reached this hillarious conclusion:  So you looked at the last 30 days and compared them to July and drew the conclusion that players are returning to expedition. They should write essays about your incompetence. As I mentioned before: Only 8 days of July belonged to Expedition, 23 days belonged to ULTIMATUM. That's why the average numbers of july is static. And as we remember, Ultimatum failed misrebly at its endgame so no one was playing that league at the end. The last 30 days has statistics from 15 days from Expedition(8 from August, 7 from July) and 15 days from Ultimatum. Do you not comprehend why using this metric to conclude that Expedition league is GROWING in numbers is dishonest and wrong? The reason why the last 30 days average is growing is because the last 30 days metric has less Ultimatum days in it. If you want to see whether Expedition is growing or shrinking in numbers (It's shrinking) you have to pick numbers that ONLY reflect on Expedition, not Ultimatum aswell. What trends am I ignoring? How am I only picking 1 Data point to prove my point. I used ALL the metrics you gave to me. This includes Concurrent viewers, total amount of streamers and hours watched. ALL THREE of them. I compared Expedition to 2 out of the 3 other leagues, could as easily have chosen all 3 leagues. How am I chosing 1 data point and cherry picking anything at all? Do you even know what cherry picking is? What trends am I ignoring? All you do is say stupid things without giving any context. Show me why I'm wrong, point holes in what I'm presenting. You're doing nothing at all but lying and showing your incompetence. I can't believe you're doing this shit again... Are you actually comparing the SECOND month relative losses of hours watched on twitch to the THIRD month of Ultimatum and Ritual?  You bracketed them, see a 79% decrease in viewership for Expedition and try to compare it to the 64% and 59% drop during the THIRD month of Ultimatum and Ritual. Also, you bracted June which was part of Ultimatum league, you know that right? All June numbers are ULTIMATUM, not expedition. Also, I specifically mentioned why Hours watched shouldn't be a metric used for Expedition. It's invalidated because the hours watched Ultimatum was boosted by the success of Ritual during its first month and the hours watched of Ritual was boosted by Heist viewership during its first month. Samething goes for Expedition: Ultimatum was a failed endgame league and no one was playing or watching it in the last month. That's why July(Expedition start) only has 2.56 million hours watched. I even made these points to be CHARITABLE to you. " Okay, lets look at the actual numbers: Ritual: - #Streamers: 484 - # Concurrent Views: 28.6k - # Hours watched: 21.2 million Ultimatum: - #Streamers: 440 - # Concurrent Views: 26.6k - # Hours watched: 19.1 million Heist: - #Streamers: 354 - # Concurrent Views: 17.4k - # Hours watched: 12.5 million Expedition: - #Streamers: 370 - # Concurrent Views: 21.4k - # Hours watched: 2.56 million (Invalid) So you said that more people streaming the game doesn't lead to more concurrent views or more hours watched? Lets look at the correlation between the numbers. # of streamers: Ritual(484) > Ultimatum (440) > Expedition (370) > Heist (354) Concurrent viewers: Ritual (28.6k) > Ultimatum (26k) > Expedition (21.4k) > Heist (17.4k) Hours watched: Ritual (21.2M) > Ultimatum (19.1M) > Heist (12.5M) > Expedition (2.56M) Lets compare these numbers: Ritual has 10% more streamers than Ultimatum, 24% more streamers than expedition, 27% more streamers than Heist. Ritual also has: 10% more viewers than Ultimatum, 26% more viewers than Expedition and 40% more viewerst han Heist. Ritual has 10% more hours watched than Ultimatum, 41% more hours watched than Heist and 88% more hours watched than Expedition. OH, WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT? Almost a PERFECT correlation between the amount of streamers, concurrent viewers and hours watched? WHO WOULD HAVE KNOWN? As you can clearly see, more people streaming the game DOES equal to more concurrent viewers and more hours watched. The only exception is hours watched during expedition which were pathetically low because the hours watched for the month of July was dragged down by Ultimatum. [Removed By Support] " Heist League start: 18 of September Ritual League start 15 of January Ultimatum League start: 16 of april Expedition League start: 23 of July I'll give you this, Expedition did start ~1 week later than other leagues which probably impacted their numbers on twitch. However, Expedition did have an event that other leagues didn't: The release of Royale. After the GGG Expedition presentation which occured 1 week before league release, they also launched Royale. Royale mode gave an increase in twitch viewership during July because most PoE streamers were streaming royale. This was like a "mini" league launch and needs to be considered when reviewing the stats. So Expedition started 1 week later than other leagues which certainly hurt their numbers, but it had 1 week of Royale launch which helped boosting the numbers somewhat. Again, you're making the same mistake as you did before. You're comparing Expedition numbers of July to Ultimatum Gauntlet numbers of June. You actually believe the June numbers are the start of Expedition and see a growth of concurrent viewers from 16.4k to 21.4k and extrapolate that Expedition is having a growing viewership? I don't even... How am I being disingenuous again? I even CLEARLY stated in BOTH of my posts that these statistics are skewed in disfavour of Expedition because the relative numbers we see are hurt by how bad Ultimatum performed in its last month. I carefuly pointed out these things to be charitable to you. And then you have the audacity to say that I'm disingenous for pointing out the same thing before you? Last edited by Deadandlivin#2745 on Aug 7, 2021, 6:17:37 AM
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Its funny becauses youre proving me right but youre soo set on spamming numbers you do not understand, in an attempt to be right.
And your still cherry picking by not going through all statistics. Your baskets looking pretty full right now my guy. 
Spoiler
BTW its ultra funny because you keep going on about ritual league which was a major expansion, not just a league, where they introduced echos of the atlas. The majority of the players relative to that time period are almost entirely attributed to the expansion.
Cherry picking, oh cherry picking! Not understanding any of the number or reasonings but still spamming them. Ill just leave you to believe youre right, that will clearly make you feel better meanwhile everyone who actually understands the numbers will likely continue ignoring you on your crusade. Harvest sucks! But look at my decked out gear two weeks in! Labyrinth salt farm miner. "But my build diversity" , "Game is too hard!" - Meta drone playing the same 1-3 builds for years. Last edited by Tin_Foil_Hat#0111 on Aug 7, 2021, 6:42:23 AM
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" You're embarassing yourself. You're making a wise decision in leaving it. |
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Nah, nothing to be embarrassed about when im right.
I think id be a lot more embarrassed spamming numbers and going into threads throwing them in peoples faces like they have any meaning whatsoever, especially in the context you want them to be in. Harvest sucks! But look at my decked out gear two weeks in!
Labyrinth salt farm miner. "But my build diversity" , "Game is too hard!" - Meta drone playing the same 1-3 builds for years. |
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I'm just going to weigh in very briefly on the stats discussion going on and point out that the data being used is utterly worthless.
The underlying issue is that Leagues don't launch neatly at the start of a month so looking at the average numbers for a month is pointless. You need to go to the daily stats and extract your data from there. Metamorph - 13 Dec - three weekends Delirium - 13 Mar - three weekends Harvest - 19 Jun - two weekends Ritual - 15 Jan - three weekends Ultimatum - 16 Apr - two weekends Expedition - 23 Jul - one and a half weekends You've got months with less or more days, different amounts of weekends, you've also got concurrent Royale games occurring during the 3.15 league weekends. So, if we're going to go down yet another rabbit hole for stats, at least go and extract the correct stats and then analyse them. I would point out however, twitch stats mean absolutely zero to GGG. You can have a million people watching, but if none of them become players then they can't contribute to GGG's coffers. The better stats available to us are the player stats and we've done those to death. They still don't tell us what proportion are revenue contributors and we have no idea what GGG's expectations were. Starting numbers were significantly down on the last two leagues but not far off the several leagues before that. Player abandonment rate is more severe than any other league by a significant proportion but there's still around 48k people playing. I think it's reasonable to conclude that most players that pay during a league are likely to do so within the first week or two at most, so GGG have already made their money for this league. Nobody but GGG know if that's met budget or not. With 58% of players already gone from the league, GGG have all the stats that will matter to them. The next lot of stats they will be looking toward will be in early October when they start doing press releases for the next league and whether they get the click-throughs they expect. Then we'll find out a week after that when we start to see their manifesto for the following league. This league is now effectively done. Next league's start numbers and retention percentages will give us a clearer forecast into the future performance of Path of Exile. The way this patch (I want to actually separate the league as I've heard very few complaints about the league mechanic itself, it's all been about the player mechanic changes) has been received reminds me much of Battlefield 5. While a number of players liked what was offered there, it alienated a significant proportion of previous players due to a significant volume of terrible design choices. EA have just launched previews of their next iteration of the franchise and appear to have listened very carefully to what the players want. It was actually essential they do so because another sub-par game launch would have killed that franchise for a significant amount of time. Whether we see a similar level of attention to the broad preferences of all player types with Path of Exile will remain to be seen. |
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