Twitch Drops

8 hours and nothing

well 60/5 = 12 rolls per hour

12*8 = 96 rolls total on the first day

1.5%^96 is about 23,44% which is the probability NOT to get anything in all these tries...

according to bex 12k ppl were enrolled for twitch drops... with a long time over 100k viewers these numbers seem a bit off... but if we round our loss chance a bit there should be like 9k guys who got a drop but i didn't see proof at all until now that anybody got something... with 9k guys there should be enough that are bragging about it right now

I wouldn't say your chances are that high. You get 1.5% chance to win and 98.5% chance to lose every time. Over a big enough sample size in an hour or 12 tries there is a 16.59% chance of success. This doesn't mean your 1.5% is any more than 1.5%.

It should be
1hr - 16.59%
2hr - 30.42%
3hr - 41.96%
4hr - 51.59%
5hr - 59.62%
6hr - 66.32%
7hr - 71.90%
8hr - 76.56%

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1337ch3r wrote:

according to bex 12k ppl were enrolled for twitch drops... with a long time over 100k viewers these numbers seem a bit off...

They seem way off, considering all those viewers were already on Twitch and they've had previous events that would have lead a lot of people to connect POE to their Twitch account already (Twitch Prime giveaways and Twitch hat drop). To give some context, isn't there 10K level 100 people on standard?

Just the idea that only 12K were eligible is a big red flag to me, and could very well be the problem. I watched the viewer numbers, people were showing up in droves as the stream started, they were there waiting before anything was on screen. You mean to tell me that's about 120,000 people that were ready for that, and only 10% of them bothered to at some point in the past or present to click the Twitch stuff? I find that doubtful.

Watched the whole thing, didnt get a drop but sure did get a perma ban on twitch for posting toucan as a joke.

This was posted by someone else on reddit, take it for what it is worth, but if accurate it indicates there was an issue:
https://i.imgur.com/fVKUAL1.png

"

Watched the whole thing, didnt get a drop but sure did get a perma ban on twitch for posting toucan as a joke.

Should've been a moderator, they can post it. Rules for thee, not for me!

"

KrAzY3 wrote:

This was posted by someone else on reddit, take it for what it is worth, but if accurate it indicates there was an issue:
https://i.imgur.com/fVKUAL1.png

they just wash their hands.. what a suprise.

"not our fault, their fault.. can't do shit soz"

I mean this is only hurting them in the long process because anyone that believes that they will activate drops will remember this..

The 1.5% chance every 5 minutes, with an average of one reward every 5.5 hours is still just only that ... a chance.

The average is 5.5 hours for one reward. That means it can take anywhere from 5 minutes to 10 hours 55 minutes to get a single reward. Some are luckier than others, and get a reward fast, perhaps even more than one, while others have to wait a long time, or might not even get a single one. That is how chances (and gambling) work.

At no point did GGG promise a reward. Only a chance at one. 5.5 hours is a statistical average, nothing more.

I'll repeat it one more time. Just so the people who had to repeat first year of primary school three times before passing will also understand it:
Look at the below quote from the announcement, and pay attention to the high-lighted part. What does it say?
IF! Not when, but if. No guarantee.

"

Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner! Each microtransaction has its own drop rate which will dictate which cosmetic effect you'll receive if you're awarded a drop.

"

mireigi wrote:

At no point did GGG promise a reward.

This isn't really about who got what, it's about something not working correctly.

Now, the GGG support emails indicates it's not an issue on their end, but it also indicates there is an issue. I think it would be fair to at least explain to us what's going on right? Considering the information originally provided no longer seems accurate...