Watch Path of Exile live and win a Helmet Skin with Twitch Drops!

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Hellshout wrote:

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gvieira wrote:

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Melanholic7 wrote:

i think
1) Ppl which didnt get hat - write about this. And ppl who won hat - they wont tell u this. = u see only unhappy ppl.
2) Chances are ALWAYS 1%. Ppl write something like "at 36 hours u should win hat at 99% chance". No. This works only for long terms with infinity attemps. With 999999999999999999999999999 attempts - yeah,u can see some average number according to randomness. And not in our situation - cause its kinda realistic that u can get 1-99 numbers 200 or 1000 times in a row. And not 100 which u need. (and after this - u would get this "100" number 200 times in a row but its too late for u)
sry for bad english. I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat. Even if they 24/7 watching stream.

1- You are right, there is confirmation bias at some level, but I don't think its that much.

2- Lol, you are so wrong there.

Your chance of NOT getting it is 0.99 in the first try, 0.99^2 in the second, 0.99^3 in the third and so it goes. The chance of getting it in "n" tries is 1-0.99^n, so in 36 hours your chance of getting it is 1-0.99^(12*36) = 98,70%

So its ok to say that you have 99% chance of getting it in 36 hours.

And about what you said "I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat"

The expected result is that anyone that stays enought time should get it.

in 2 weeks the chance to NOT get it is 0.99^(12*24*14) = 2.5*10^-18, or 0.00000000000000025%

the one who is wrong is you, all the rolls are independent because there is no accumulation.
in all the runs you have a 99% chance of not obtaining it.

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very five minutes of view time you'll have a 1% chance to receive one of the helmet skins which means it would take an average of 8.33 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward.

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ScreenName wrote:

Once I get my "free" hat I'll have to buy a new monitor that doesn't have Mathil's 160p face burnt into it.