LABYRINTH ENCHANTS ARE RIGGED
I've run the Lab on merciless 110 times now and I've seen Glacial Cascade 4x, Minion APS 6x, Split Arrow 4x, Mirror Arrow 9x.
THIS IS RIGGED. Out of 300 possible enchants this is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE even with random number generation. Dual Striker Leech Tank, creator since 11/2014 https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1533986/page/1Umbra_the_Wolf Last bumped on Apr 11, 2017, 5:26:38 PM
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Did they ever state there was an equal distribution on the table?
"Into the Labyrinth!
left step, right step, step step, left left. Into the Labyrinth!" |
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Aaaand this is why I'm going to wait for a couple of months and just buy an enchanted helm.
I wish there was a way to remove the existing one. It's just bugging me to see it on my helm. XD Oh, and the gloves one is extremely annoying and useless. I should have skipped it altogether. Avert thy gaze, child!
IGN: Shadowrope Standard Warrior |
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Helmet enchants are evenly weighted. The repeats you report are certainly not mathematically impossible.
While getting that precise set of results again is not going to happen, getting a set of results with large number of repeats of things you don't want certainly can happen. | |
" I too wish the would create some orb or npc to remove the damn enchants, as a summoner most of them dont even work for gloves and boots because the shit is "if you've killed" and "on kill" "when you hit" shit like that, and the ones that do work freaking mess with EE!!! Took me forever to get an enchant that wouldn't work so my EE wouldn't get messed up by it going off when I was hit"...so now I am stuck with this enchant on my gloves that I cant get off, drives me nutz...very ocd with my gear and having something stick out like that is stupid! Last edited by justinmm1988#6504 on Mar 9, 2016, 7:03:36 PM
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It would be "better" if they weighted the skills assigned much the same way they weight the color of sockets.
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" Mathematically speaking, it is not even close to impossible. If you ran it 110 times and saw mirror arrow 115 times, that would be mathematically impossible. Seeing it 9 times is perfectly possible. If it wasn't possible, then you couldn't have done it. Although I guess you are using 'impossible' to mean 'really unlikely'. In which case, sorry but you're kind of also wrong there. Getting repeated results is not as unlikely as you think. Read up about the Birthday Paradox if you want to see why. The chance that you'll get double-ups of the same upgrades is actually really high.
Warning, contains math
According to this site:
https://jaxwebster.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/expected-number-of-different-birthdays/ The formula is: e(n) = D*(1-((D-1)/D)^n)) Where n is the number of trials, D is the number of possible options, and e(n) is the expected number of unique results. Putting in your values (n=110, D=300) gives us: Expected number of unique enchants = 300*(1-(299/300)^110) = approx 92. So you should expect to have only seen 92 different enchants, and the other 18 should have been double-ups. That 8 of the double-ups happened on the same thing seems quite unlikely, I agree. But you definitely should expect to see a lot of enchants turn up twice, and some enchants turn up 3 or 4 times as well. Face it, all of your suggestions are worse than this idea: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/657756 Last edited by dudiobugtron#4663 on Mar 9, 2016, 7:46:39 PM
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It's not impossible, but a brief simulation suggests it's unlikely. According to this, there're 362 possible helmet enchantments (2 levels each). I used excel's random function to generate 110 values between 1 and 362, and the frequency formula to bin them by value. In 5000 trials I got a max of 6 repeats once (0.02%), a max of 5 repeats 31 times (.62%), a max of 4 repeats 476 times (9.52%), a max of 3 repeats 3275 times (65.5%), and a max of 2 repeats 1217 times (24.34%).
All of the 5000 trials had at least one repeat; but if the odds of all results are equally likely, Umbra_the_Wolf's results are extremely improbable. Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason?
Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? |
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" Take coin flips... you have a 50% chance of heads or tails, but flip a coin 500 times in a row and you are likely to get a streak of 7, 8 or even 9 heads or tails in a row even though the odds are that are only 7.8% for 7 and 3.9% for 8 and 1.9% for 9. However, I am on your side in principle... here's the thing, I don't wanna do lab even once, and you ran it 110 times and didn't get the enchant you wanted. In all likihood, if you do another 110 you won't get it either... THIS IS BAD DESIGN. The odds should be, imo, roughly 10-20x higher than that, which means GGG and I aren't even in the same ballpark. IMO, they really need to drop Perandus coins or something that you can then trade in for the desired enchantments. Grinding is okay if you know you will get it in the end, but in all likelihood if you did Lab every day for a whole year you would very likely not get the enchant you wanted. Last edited by Vaalamity#6929 on Mar 9, 2016, 10:05:32 PM
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"the enchantment should have been split into 4 major categories for RNG. Melee, Projectile, Spell, Defense. Let player choose that and RNG from there. It complete makes no sense to roll a melee skill on a ranger character helm. It is kinda defeat purpose of Ascendancy class specialization. |
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