[Math] Probability of entering Beta
" No you are just as likely to get one with 50+ posts as a 0 poster. maybe even less likely, i have been wathing the counter for the last day and the most posts i saw was 4. not to mention i only saw 3 accounts with posts other then that the other 300 had 0. |
|
|
How to make math fun.
|
|
|
wow thats some good math I give you props
|
|
|
yay so 50 % chance to get beta in 5 month ...
Hadoken
|
|
|
50% jumps to 100% in under 5 months if open beta proceeds as planned. :D
|
|
" By default, everyone has an equal chance. However, everyone with one or more posts gets a 10x multiplier. Post count doesn't matter, except for whether or not you have more than zero. So if there are X people without beta access, and of those, Y have posted one or more times, then the total weight W is given by: W = Y*10 + (X-Y)*1 = X + Y*9 And so the following probabilities hold for a single timer choice: Chance of you getting chosen (and you haven't posted): 1 in W Chance of you getting chosen (and you have posted): 10 in W Chance of someone else getting chosen (who hasn't posted): X-Y in W Chance of someone else getting chosen (who has posted): Y in W Note that X is in the hundreds of thousands, and that Y is only in the thousands, so both X-Y and W are in the hundreds of thousands, too. Code warrior
| |
|
wow ic, diddnt understand a word of what you just said,
thx for closing my topic asswell btw, nice to see the mod's are the same on jsp here... |
|
|
Chance is small, but is...
|
|
|
Realy informative, looks like i have to wait till open beta :) Or get realy realy lucky
|
|
|
So waiting and hope to get an key or friend invite.
|
|
