[Math] Probability of entering Beta

This thread makes me happy. Inside, where it counts.

i can haz beta key yes ?

Thanks for helpful theard ^^

Nice but i can't wait :S

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NeoBlueArchon wrote:

Where did you get the data from?

In part speculation, but data was also more accessible back then, or "common knowledge". You could access how many registered users the forums had, which, at the time, was the same amount of people waiting in line for beta, more or less. (The beta had just begun, so 99% of registered users weren't in the beta yet.)

I should add that my post dates back to last august. There are probably a ton more registered accounts today.

In reply to my last post, I just checked how many users are registered on the forums as of today, and there are approximately 196,000.

So, even with the updated timer and changes to post calculation, is it harder to get a key now?

Cool

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Kayzin wrote:

So, even with the updated timer and changes to post calculation, is it harder to get a key now?

Well, it's hard to evaluate just how many people are in the beta right now, out of the 200,000 members. We can approximate it, though.

The timer gives out a key every 5 minutes, plus all keys being handed out through other means. Say there have been keys being sent every 5 minutes for 6 months now, that makes approximately 47,000 accounts that were beta-enabled through the timer alone.

Add in maybe 10,000 keys given out manually or in batches to fan websites and other events, there are probably 60,000 of the 200,000 current forum members enabled for beta.

That would mean around 140,000 of those 200,000 are still waiting in line. So I'd guess your chances are rather similar to what they were 6 months ago.

6 months ago you would have 1 chance in 50,000 every 15 minutes, now it's more like 1 chance in 150,000 every 5 minutes...

Fair enough, at least it's not worse :)