[Math] Probability of entering Beta

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wowycazawy wrote:

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Fourier wrote:

Why, hello there!
I calculated a few probabilities for your enjoyment.

Assuming there are 50,000 registered accounts, that forum posters have ten times more chances of being picked for the beta and that new players are picked every 15 minutes, we have these basic probabilities.."

Its not 15mins every pick... its 35!
Odd are by half now i think lol

Yeah, it was actually 10 when I started writing this post. Then they changed it to 15 so I readjusted the values. Then they changed it to 35 and I was too busy crying to change it again.

you have 50% chances:

either you will get picked or you won't

/eot

Nice work doing the math. But therein lie two reasons I never got into statistics and probability, much as they fascinated me. One, I'd probably botch a decimal place or something and I'd be off by orders of magnitude. And two, results such as these, are...almost disheartening.

Still, one hopes for a friendly number to come up soon!

If u have only registered and no forum activity and one login only u get 50% to get picked in randoms.

So i hope your not encouraging people to spam to therefore increase their chances? lol. Anyway this is a good excuse for me to post !

Hmm, apart from 15 minutes changed to 35, this doesn't seem to take a veteran accounts into account ;)

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Ugm wrote:

Hmm, apart from 15 minutes changed to 35, this doesn't seem to take a veteran accounts into account ;)

I think that's the "posted" probabilities.

If you think about it, posters become 'veterans'. Reason why I say that is because the other day, I saw someone from the veteran list that just joined on August 10th, 2011.

The numbers are making me lose all hope :( With the current 35 minute interval it's 84 invites a day (+30 minutes, 1470 minutes total). Still, browsing through the forums, you can see many posters with the beta tester status. I hope I get picked and get to test the game :)

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Kiyoniz wrote:

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Ugm wrote:

Hmm, apart from 15 minutes changed to 35, this doesn't seem to take a veteran accounts into account ;)

I think that's the "posted" probabilities.

If you think about it, posters become 'veterans'. Reason why I say that is because the other day, I saw someone from the veteran list that just joined on August 10th, 2011.

Hmm... maybe, but I didn't see it official. Chris states that you had to use forums before August, 10th. I don't think that the veteran pool is growing anyhow.

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Ugm wrote:

Hmm... maybe, but I didn't see it official. Chris states that you had to use forums before August, 10th. I don't think that the veteran pool is growing anyhow.

My apologies, I didn't see anything and speculated.

After you said that I took a look around and found the answer.