"
ScrotieMcB wrote:
I haven't commented on this before, but I should step in now to say: a more effective trading system will not universally devalue items. Some types of items will be devalued, others will increase in value.
Here's why: Easier trade means the population of traders increases. However, we need to break that down by category. Do all populations of traders increase at the same rate, or do certain groups (elite traders, casuals, etc) increase at a higher or lower rate than other groups as a result of easier trade?
Let's imagine an item which is relatively low on the power curve, currently worth a small handful of chaos. Let's say right now there is one people interested in this item and four people selling it. If you double the amount of economic participants, there would be two people interested and eight selling it. This leads to increased competition between the sellers, because there are more losers. The price goes down.
Now let's imagine an item very high on the power curve, currently worth a small fortune. Let's say there are four people interested in this item, and only one available; if you implement a better trading system, there are eight interested and... probably still just one available, because if it's really GG the person would probably have traded it even under the old system. This leads to increased competition between the buyers, because there are more losers. The price goes up.
So what happens when you implement a better trading system is: there exists some equilibrium point on the power curve, where gear at that level of supply-demand ratio will not change in price. Everything above that point (the really good gear people grind for) will increase in price. Everything below that point (the mediocre gear which makes up the vast majority of shop space) will decrease in price, with some of it downgraded all the way to vendor trash.
This isn't binary. You can make things a little easier, you get a little bit of this effect. You can make things a lot easier, and have a real grind in store for people.
Finally, it's important to note that this is assuming trading is flat-out easier. I'm pretty sure that earlier in this thread (or maybe the AH Fears thread in GD) I went over why tedium is a bad kind of challenge, and meaningful choice in PvP trade decisions is the right kind of difficulty. I think there's a lot that can be done to make trading more skill-intensive and challenging in that aspect, instead of only "challenging" from the perspective of dealing with inconvenience. Trade skill should involve metagame knowledge and careful, deliberate pricing, not having the most eye-popping trade chat copypasta and the willingness to always be online so poe.trade searchers can whisper you.
I think you explain it better than I can.
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
Anyone with a shop knows that there are people out there that run programs to shift through poe.trade and then send automated messages to sellers offering items at below a predetermined price threshold asking the seller to contact the buyer in game.
Currently that isn't bannable. But if a script like that was running in the game itself? These people could be removed from PoE.
It is interesting to think over though. Technically there isn't anything to find or detect them since they are searching through a third party database.
|
Posted bydeathflower#0444on Dec 18, 2015, 2:58:37 AM
|
|
^
I know it isn't bannable. But it really is distruptive. I always ignore those forum messages because I know they are flippers.
Thanks for posting that Scrotie quote btw. I must have missed it. It gives me something to think about. I was only thinking from the supply side and how the supply curve would shift right with more sellers, but didn't consider that the demand curve would also shift right.
I don't think that the demand for the best of the best gear will shift that much though. Anyone with the currency to buy a legacy unique or mirror gear rare are already participating in the market. Excluding 1 or 2 lucky folk who happened to have found a mirror.
The new entrants to the market will be low or middle wealth players and so they shouldn't have much of any effect on the top tier market.
Scrotie, if you read this please give me your thoughts on this.
Keep PoE2 Difficult. Last edited by Fluffy_Puppies#3904 on Dec 18, 2015, 3:30:54 AM
|
|
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
^
I don't think that the demand for the best of the best gear will shift that much though. Anyone with the currency to buy a legacy unique or mirror gear rare are already participating in the market. Excluding 1 or 2 lucky folk who happened to have found a mirror.
The new entrants to the market will be low or middle wealth players and so they shouldn't have much of any effect on the top tier market.
Scrotie, if you read this please give me your thoughts on this.
Maybe you underestimate market transparency, I don't think many people have the market knowledge and the awareness of all items for sale. Most people only actively look for an item when they need it.
Imperfect market let people get away with picking up bargain or paying less for its intrinsic value. Market transparency would have the opposite effect.
Not only do you have increase numbers of participants, these participants will not let you pay anything less than its value. It is an environment where only the highest bidders will get the item.
I am under the impression that the market for these top tier items could be fierce and volatile.
|
Posted bydeathflower#0444on Dec 18, 2015, 4:55:36 AM
|
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
"
Sickness wrote:
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
Ofcourse they would. Faster trading = higher inflation. Economics 101.
That is a non-sequitur. GGG doesn't have to act to keep prices as they are now...
Please at least try to think next time.
Well obviously the assumption is that GGG want top keep the progression rate the same. You know, what they balance the game around.
So try to think next time ok?
|
Posted bySickness#1007on Dec 18, 2015, 4:57:42 AM
|
"
RegulusX wrote:
"
Barivius wrote:
"
RegulusX wrote:
I want to play my already leveled Templar. I don't want to start all over just to get back to where I already was...
We want to play without an auction house. Period. I'd imagine, just like you want to play Standard. Period.
Is that why poe.trade and Acquisition are so popular? Because everyone wants what you want?
AGree.
I actually prefer an auction house.
AFter all, isn't that what poe.trade is anyway?
Didnt the devs also say they were going to improve trade somehow yonks ago? Still hearing crickets...
Why we have to resort to poe. trade is absolutely bonkee
The rest of the 'end-game' content will be available along with a heap of new stuff when the game launches in a few months time. From what I've seen it's going to be awesome. - Michael_GGG
|
Posted bytobes111#6962on Dec 18, 2015, 5:04:53 AM
|
"
deathflower wrote:
You can have an auction house and higher drop rate. I don't see why they are mutually exclusive.
The problem with that is that you then could spend 10 alterations and 3 minutes to get good enough gear to beat merciless A4 (and high tier maps).
|
Posted bySickness#1007on Dec 18, 2015, 5:31:40 AM
|
"
deathflower wrote:
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
^
I don't think that the demand for the best of the best gear will shift that much though. Anyone with the currency to buy a legacy unique or mirror gear rare are already participating in the market. Excluding 1 or 2 lucky folk who happened to have found a mirror.
The new entrants to the market will be low or middle wealth players and so they shouldn't have much of any effect on the top tier market.
Scrotie, if you read this please give me your thoughts on this.
Maybe you underestimate market transparency, I don't think many people have the market knowledge and the awareness of all items for sale. Most people only actively look for an item when they need it.
Imperfect market let people get away with picking up bargain or paying less for its intrinsic value. Market transparency would have the opposite effect.
Not only do you have increase numbers of participants, these participants will not let you pay anything less than its value. It is an environment where only the highest bidders will get the item.
I am under the impression that the market for these top tier items could be fierce and volatile.
That isn't fully true, it is only half of the story. What you are talking about is efficient market hypothesis. Basically in an inefficient market a small number of people possessing superior information can make extra normal profits by using their informanal advantage to make good trades. Sure a normal player in PoE can happen upon a good deal and profit from that happenstance. But what that normal player isn't seeing is all the times this small group of extra deticated traders have swooped in on the good deal and then flip the item for at or above market value.
These are the players that are running scripts on poe.trade and automating PMs on these very forums to have the seller of the underpriced item come to them.
The more efficient a market is, the less infromational advantage is possible. A key component of an efficient market is transparency.
Basically an AH would change prices to more closely reflect their actual fair market value (supply and demand equilibirum). The more efficient a market the more closely prices match fair market value and update in price to reflect nee information.
In the real world organizations trading in the stock markets spend millions if not billions of dollars to develop algorithms that give their creators a mere fraction of a second advantage over their competitor's algorithms.
Keep PoE2 Difficult.
|
|
"
Sickness wrote:
"
deathflower wrote:
You can have an auction house and higher drop rate. I don't see why they are mutually exclusive.
The problem with that is that you then could spend 10 alterations and 3 minutes to get good enough gear to beat merciless A4 (and high tier maps).
Lol! That is hyperbole to the extreme. Nothing is ever going to be priced that low. At a certain point items are not worth even placing on the market because you can farm more currency in the time it takes to complete a trade (or im the case of an AH to list the item). You really do have a chicken little doom and gloom outlook on this.
Trust me economics aren't scary. The fear you feel is all rooted in your own ignorance.
Keep PoE2 Difficult. Last edited by Fluffy_Puppies#3904 on Dec 18, 2015, 6:39:59 AM
|
|
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
Lol! That is hyperbole to the extreme. Nothing is ever going to be priced that low. At a certain point items are not worth even placing on the market because you can farm more currency in the time it takes to complete a trade (or im the case of an AH to list the item). You really do have a chicken little doom and gloom outlook on this.
Trust me economics aren't scary. The fear you feel is all rooted in your own ignorance.
Change alterations to fusings then. The points remains the same. Good gear is already cheap. An item like Lioneyes Glare is good enough for basically any content and you can get one for a couple of chaos. The best advice to new players is already to save their chaos orbs to buy gear upgrades at level 60+.
An AH would only amplify this, so to not have "game winning gear" one click away they would have to combat it by reducing drop rates. (or scale the game up, either way self found players are fucked).
When you say that good items won't even be worth the time to put on the AH you are making my point for me.
It's not doom and gloom. It's not ignorance. D3 already showed exactly what happens when you put an AH in an ARPG: The BY FAR best way to gain upgrades for 99% of the players is to buy them in the AH. Every piece of gear I had I got from the AH and I had no real hopes on ever finding an upgrade from a drop.* That is boring to me, I much prefer to progress by playing the actual game.
*If I have a reasonable chance to find an upgrade for myself, then the thousands of other players also have a reasonable chance to find the same item and since people don't want exactly the same items said item will have a supply that exceeds demand making the price drop drastically.
|
Posted bySickness#1007on Dec 18, 2015, 7:36:13 AM
|
"
Fluffy_Puppies wrote:
That isn't fully true, it is only half of the story. What you are talking about is efficient market hypothesis. Basically in an inefficient market a small number of people possessing superior information can make extra normal profits by using their informanal advantage to make good trades. Sure a normal player in PoE can happen upon a good deal and profit from that happenstance. But what that normal player isn't seeing is all the times this small group of extra deticated traders have swooped in on the good deal and then flip the item for at or above market value.
These are the players that are running scripts on poe.trade and automating PMs on these very forums to have the seller of the underpriced item come to them.
The more efficient a market is, the less infromational advantage is possible. A key component of an efficient market is transparency.
Basically an AH would change prices to more closely reflect their actual fair market value (supply and demand equilibirum). The more efficient a market the more closely prices match fair market value and update in price to reflect nee information.
In the real world organizations trading in the stock markets spend millions if not billions of dollars to develop algorithms that give their creators a mere fraction of a second advantage over their competitor's algorithms.
Maybe I should explain things in another way. Top tier items value are determined by participants Purchasing Power. Goods in such category are prohibitively hard to trade without a huge capital, a barrier to entry. The participants are the potential buyers and limited numbers of rich traders.
Such items would be difficult to flip or not profitable because of the fierce competition. There is little reason to believe if all participants offered their highest bid they are willing to pay, the highest bidder could resell that item right back to other participants at a higher value who would only pay at a lower value.
I would think Goods in this category is so rare it would be quite different from goods with a supply like the stock market. I would consider them more like a limited edition items. A single participant could vastly affect the selling value of the item. The prices doesn't need to be rational or make sense either.
A limited edition cosmetic item could be selling at maximum gold carrying capacity and maximum AH transaction value above selling value of every weapon and armor existing in the game if there are people who are willing to pay for it. Just to illustrate a point.
"
Sickness wrote:
*If I have a reasonable chance to find an upgrade for myself, then the thousands of other players also have a reasonable chance to find the same item and since people don't want exactly the same items said item will have a supply that exceeds demand making the price drop drastically.
Mind farming a 500 dps bow for me? It seem like I don't have a reasonable chance to find an upgrade for myself.
Last edited by deathflower#0444 on Dec 18, 2015, 8:35:25 AM
|
Posted bydeathflower#0444on Dec 18, 2015, 8:02:28 AM
|
