The Odds
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sadface
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Timer is every 25 minutes. 57 beta keys are given out via the timer every day. It would take 4.8 years for 100,000 accounts to get a key via the timer. Just think... you could be that last guy :P
THe reason there arent TOO many people online at any given time is because its hard to come back to that game. I'm up to level 10. I've given my initial feedback... but now I need to find motivation to log back in. |
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" Interesting. Do you know where I can read that feedback? Why do you not want to log back in? I've been in a few betas before, and I admit it was sometimes more like work than play and it doesn't suit everyone. World of Warcraft beta was very polished when I joined, and it was playable. But not all games have been that way.. to say the least. You need a genuine interest in the game, sometimes, to even muster up the mental strength to go back in. | |
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less fake accounts, more keys for active people. (and yes, i know im kinda fresh here:)
*** NoobCakes *** <NCAKES> guild
IGN: HardCandy centeral europe time |
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" Btw, this just isn't right. Really was shoddy mathematics :) If we assume your numbers are (close to) what we can expect, then the 1/2400 is the real odds of you being chosen by the random key give-away per day. 50 beta keys per day, 120000 accounts. Every time the random generator chooses an account, you have the odds of 1/120000! Luckily, they choose to do this 50 times per day, so the odds per day is 1/2400 (120000/50). I don't want to crush the hopes of those who believed the 1.5-2% number, but.. The real odds (per day) of you being picked is 0.04% :P Last edited by mkreku on Sep 23, 2011, 10:03:10 AM
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Those numbers are still depressing.
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These "stats" threads are always fun. Every one of them seems to go so far then just flail about and get confused.
How do you get from X accounts exist and 1 new beta member occurs every 25minutes to having a 1 in 2400 chance of an account each time a new key is given? | |
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I was expecting more like 0.1 to 0.2% per day.
Good to know that my chances are significantly higher. Edit: Just read the rest of the thread. My hopes are now crushed yet again. Last edited by Gospel on Sep 23, 2011, 10:28:01 AM
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" Read my post a few steps above. The original poster's numbers are a little off. And it was clearly stated that the 120000 accounts number was to be taken with a pinch of salt. It's an estimation, nothing else. It should be somewhere in that ballpark though. The rest is simple math. 24 hours per day, 25 minutes between giveaways, equals approximately (for sake of ease) 50 new accounts per day. So per day they choose 50 accounts out of 120000 possible ones. 50/120000 is the same as 1/2400, so.. those are the odds per day (24 hours). | |
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Don't active forums accounts have ten times the chance to be picked for a beta key, though?
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