The Odds

So, I did a forum search for accounts and (after some fiddling with the search function's quirks...but more on that later, I suppose) came up with 129722 accounts. I didn't see any real way to sort "Beta" from "Not Beta", so we're just going to have to ball-park it there. I also have no way of knowing if this number is accurate! Funny that. Let's just pretend it is.

So, assuming maybe 10-15% of the forum *already* has a key, that leaves about 115000 accounts to sort through. Let's go high though and say 120000.

Ignoring hard-to-quantify things like friend invites and such, the timer is guaranteed to provide one account about every half hour(I think it's 25 minutes, actually, but I'm not about to stare long enough to find out for sure.)

So 48 accounts per day. Lets call it 50 for the sake of lazy math. We'll call it a bonus to account for friend invites, okay?

tl;dr? Every time the timer gives out an account, there's a 1 in 2400 chance of it being you. Give or take. If all ~130000 accounts were part of the running, then the odds are more like 1 in 2600. This is every half-hour though.

To spare you the math, the daily odds are about 1.5% to 2%.

Yay.

And this has been "Shoddy Mathematics With Varil".

And peak times during the weekends, only 100 people on.

lol gotta love math :)

Strange math u did there, sir

Oh Math, I hate you.

1-2% sounds pretty decent to the figure i had in my mind

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rafmepl0x wrote:

1-2% sounds pretty decent to the figure i had in my mind

It's 1-2% per day... :(

I do get a little disappointed when i see the next user getting beta is named EzekielFrias29, and just a few days ago, there was a user named EzekielFrias who got a key..
So yeah, these odds do suck :/

I am a bit amazed why there is no stopping of obvious bet key farmers like EzekielFrias. It shouldn't be too difficult I would think (although I have no real clue about these matters).

I've seen starcraft42 stream channel of hes poe gameplay everyday and tons of keys are given to players that not even play, around 40 - 100 players online on the server, what about those who really want to play the game every day. Tons of keys have been wasted for nothing, they not even play the game, and ppl like me and others that really want to play the game are here on the forum waiting for a goddam key everyday reading forum and seeing others that got key not even being active on forums, they even make games or jokes with their key invitation on those who really need a key.