Item Affix Gambling Probabilities (Thank you Chriskang from PoE wiki)

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toyotatundra wrote:

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Nephalim wrote:

this is kind of amazing. this data would have never been released by GGG.

Of course not, GGG would like you to believe you actually have a chance to roll those affixes :)

In fact, you have the chance, LOL

And PS: tyrannical is never exalted, almost always transmuted/alterated/augmented

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lukeiy wrote:

Tyrannical - 0.084

or

1 / 1190 chance

Drops in this game are bullshit

If you think at all the players that are farming ilvl79+ maps, you will notice that 1/1190 chance is not that bad after all.

Probably, 1190 rare ilvl79 weapons are dropped in standard each 30 minutes, if not less, due to the high amount of players farming end maps

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Holocaustus wrote:

so does this mean a level 80 weapon has the same chance to roll, say, the lowest str mod as the highest? GG no wonder loot drops seem to be getting progressively worse.

NO . answer = math

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khemintiri wrote:

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Holocaustus wrote:

so does this mean a level 80 weapon has the same chance to roll, say, the lowest str mod as the highest? GG no wonder loot drops seem to be getting progressively worse.

NO . answer = math

Disdainful answer fail^^
For your information, the guy was right : since all the different level of the same affix type have the same probability, you have a way bigger chance to get top rolls ("top" relative to its own iLvl) on a low level item than on a high level item.

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Mooncows wrote:

A wand with the highest spell damage tier and the highest cast speed tier has a 0.0029% to be made lol. Thats about a 1/50000 chance of happening if my math is right. Goodness lol

So close!! but yeah ive done a highly illogical amount of wand rolling in my day and these numbers feel about right. I still continue to try for the fun of overcoming the odds.

thanks for the info, great work over there at poe wiki.

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Kirielis wrote:

I'd like to see staves, if you don't mind! By my reckoning, they can roll the largest number of different affixes (quite possibly along with daggers), so every other weapon pool is just taking what staves have, eliminating the ones that don't roll, and normalising the result.

Also like to see the assorted armour pieces, but meh. Gloves would be the most interesting of the lot IMO.

Here's the staff:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Staff


I'll try to extract the gloves stats later this week.

A game made for bots not for players.

And everything below 1% is absurd if you promote 4 months leagues...

One thing I'd like to know is which base magical items is most likely to yield alchemy shards when id'ing and selling. I did at one point go through number of affixes for each item and which gave alchemy shards, and my conclusion at the time was that Helms was the most efficient to id if you were to id anything.

That conclusion however was based on some faulty assumptions, most of all that I assumed all affix types would have equal probability, which isn't the case... so would be interesting to know exactly which is best to pick up. It might also vary depending on the level of the zone...

Thanks Chriskang! If you don't mind, could you post sample sizes too?

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Kirielis wrote:

Thanks Chriskang! If you don't mind, could you post sample sizes too?

He extracted the information from the game library itself hence no sample size, I think.

Couldn't GGG just weight iLvl in affix generation using currency to make the "crafting" more satisfying? Wouldn't change anything concerning high-end goals like 6L but this is important to stay anyway.