Item Affix Gambling Probabilities (Thank you Chriskang from PoE wiki)

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mazul wrote:

We also notice that crafting a good ele wand is a nightmare. And also how crafting good phys daggers is harder compared to a good phys bow. We also notice how crafting a good phys wand isnt as hard as one would expect.

Indeed it is:

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chriskang wrote:

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mazul wrote:

I do he updates it more :).

Well, I stopped extracting data cause no one really cared but if you want another weapon or armour piece, just let me know.

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mazul wrote:

Something that is very interesting is how the actual test of map affixes at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvgaIEP3cGGYdGhwcnhWMkplbW1Ud0pCMUVCM04xMGc#gid=0

matches Chriskang's datamined probabilities. This empowers the validity of Chriskang's findings.

The numbers were confirmed to be correct by ChrisGGG on reddit a few weeks ago.

Personally i would LOVE the info for 1 hand axes, unless its exactly same as swords, and the small evasion shields.

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Akaihana wrote:

Would you be agree that some very high level item like 79 or 80 should not roll the lowest half rand of all the affixe/suffixe?
Because too much gambling fears more people than attracts new ones...

No, persaonlly if it were me i would have the lower level mods be possible but with very rare odds, then the middle mods be the easiest, with then the high end mods being the hardest.

This is incredibly helpful, thanks! Working on a crafting project with some friends, these probabilities are invaluable.

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lukeiy wrote:

Tyrannical - 0.084

or

1 / 1190 chance

Drops in this game are bullshit

bitch please
Glyphic - 0.061
1/1639 and add the fact that only wand/scepter/dagger (staff lol trash).

bump

1 / 2186696th chance of rolling a max. physical damage weapon in the wild. Add max. local crit. chance and you got 1 / 130160476th chance of rolling that in the wild. Add T1 attack speed? 1 out of 7747647392. Add one other T1 roll? On average 553.403.385.163 rare drops of a certain weapon type needed to get that mirror worthy weapon. Thats 550 billion drops.
If you play 12 hours a day, 7 days a week and get one rare every minute you have to play on average 2 Myr to get that item. If on average 10.000 players play this game on end game mode on any given moment in a day: it takes on average 105 years that someone find this drop in the wild.

According to the data, a relatively decent rare physical wand(with 2 tier 3+ physical prefixes - flaring, tyrannical, emporor's group and at least one useful suffix - tier 1 or 2 of destruction, of incision, of ranger, of mastery group) which might be further master-crafted will drop every 21373.62 rare wands found.

If the player plays solo, assume that a rare wand drops every 5 min, he may find one in about 1781 hours of game play.


p.s. the rate of tyrannical is 1 per 1234.56790

Wow, managed to hit tyrannical under 300 alts, guess i was really lucky on this one.


This one also took less than 300 alts.


And this is THE BEST DROP i ever get so far (Shrine Piety)

Newbie to the game here. Does anyone know if data similar to this exists for Helms, Belts, Chests and Boots? Or even if there is just a list of affixes that spawn on those items?