Item Affix Gambling Probabilities (Thank you Chriskang from PoE wiki)

I know many of you like me hate gambling. Thankfully Chriskang did datamine the probabilities for gambling some time ago and at this point Chriskang has included the probabilities for following categories:

2-hand axes:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Axe

Bows:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Bow

Daggers:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Dagger

1-hand swords:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/1HSword

Wands:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Wand

Amulets:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Amulet

Rings:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Ring

Maps:
http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/User:Chriskang/Sandbox/ItemAffixSpawnRates/Map
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I do he updates it more :).

Something that is very interesting is how the actual test of map affixes at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvgaIEP3cGGYdGhwcnhWMkplbW1Ud0pCMUVCM04xMGc#gid=0

matches Chriskang's datamined probabilities. This empowers the validity of Chriskang's findings.

If we look at the prefix probabilites in all those categories, we find following weight patterns (twice the weight means twice as likely):

Weight List for Necklaces(p = point):

1 p: Chaos Res
2 p: Lightning dmg %, Fire dmg %, Cold dmg %
3.2 p: Cast speed %, All Attributes
4 p: Strength, Intelligence, Dexterity, Mana regen, Mana Gained on Kill, light/cold/fire res, crit chance, crit mult, life regen, life per target, life on kill, IIR, IIQ, Accuracy, All Res
---

Weight List for Rings (p = point):

1 p: Chaos Res
1.6 p: All Attributes
2 p: Lightning dmg %, Fire dmg %, Cold dmg %, Attack Speed
3.2 p: Cast speed %
4 p: Strength, Intelligence, Dexterity, Mana regen, Mana Gained on Kill, light/cold/fire res, life regen, life per target, life on kill, IIR, IIQ, Accuracy, All Res, Light Radius & Accuracy
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Weight list for 2-hand Axes, Bows, 1H-Swords, Wands and Daggers:

1 p: Chaos Res
4 p: Fire/cold/light res, Light Radius & Accuracy (Max Increased cast speed on wands)
8 p: Rest
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We also notice that crafting a good ele wand is a nightmare. And also how crafting good phys daggers is harder compared to a good phys bow. We also notice how crafting a good phys wand isnt as hard as one would expect.

A wand with the highest spell damage tier and the highest cast speed tier has a 0.0029% to be made lol. Thats about a 1/50000 chance of happening if my math is right. Goodness lol

At least this will help all those who wonder if they should yolo exalt or not :D.

It would be interesting to know how these numbers correlate with the pricing of certain items on the market.

"

mazul wrote:

I do he updates it more :).

Well, I stopped extracting data cause no one really cared but if you want another weapon or armour piece, just let me know.

"

mazul wrote:

Something that is very interesting is how the actual test of map affixes at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvgaIEP3cGGYdGhwcnhWMkplbW1Ud0pCMUVCM04xMGc#gid=0

matches Chriskang's datamined probabilities. This empowers the validity of Chriskang's findings.

The numbers were confirmed to be correct by ChrisGGG on reddit a few weeks ago.

We do care! Sometimes i go there just to look at it then i sleep better! :D

No, but really it is very nice. It helps you determine which affixes you must roll first to make it cheaper. I check it out every now and then.

so does this mean a level 80 weapon has the same chance to roll, say, the lowest str mod as the highest? GG no wonder loot drops seem to be getting progressively worse.

Wow i didn't know it was so bad.