Why Cronk's Test is Inconclusive - The Stats

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Deceptionist wrote:
"
Grimmhammer wrote:


And here is my major disagreement - you HAVE to pick and choose in a certain respect. As another poster has said, you could argue that archers dont have a large enough gear pool, simply because bows are a small part of the loot table, and there are no other ranged weapons for dex users.

FACT: Witches have an equal ARMOUR pool to the other classes.


FACT: Wands count towards the general system: Witch Gear

FACT: Regardless of the Witch having the same Armour amount as any other "class", the smaller number of Wands makes the Witch Gear become undermined in comparison with other "classes".

FACT: AtheistGod hasn't responded to my refutation.

FACT: Nothing more could be said until AtheistGod contests my contest.


FACT: All weapons can get shit rolls
go away deceptionist you just come off as an ass http://www.youtube. com/watch?v=fqs9DYisSsg
Abyssus Crit Cleave - http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/381106
The Bow niche (a sub-set of a class) has a larger pool of weapons than witches because of the Quivers.

Nice to know that even the subsections of other classes have more items ;)
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Tabx wrote:
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Deceptionist wrote:

Cronk has a big enough sample size.

Witch doesn't have a big enough gear pool.



I want to jump back in and say that, before any want-to-be math professors jump on this, telling a new player that they don't have any gear because they don't have a large enough sample size isn't going to keep them around for long. Statistics (regarding video games) is a hard topic to approach because all we end up having in a thread regarding RNG are math majors (or persons that took a stats class in college) screaming that this small sample size is not enough. And that, mathematically, it will all "come out okay" in the end. One person, in cronk's thread, even went so far as to suggest that he find "440,000" items and THEN see the results.

That's bogus. You can clearly see the trend already playing out with his <500 analysis. That trend pretty clearly suggests that there is no weighting on drops. Do we know this for sure? No. GGG has said specifically before that they don't tell these numbers for a variety of reasons (among them specifically mentioned was the ability to change them rather frequently, though I think that specifically was referred to blue/rare/unique drops).

The Problem:

I don't play as much as many other people, but my character levels combined probably puts me between 200-300 character levels earned. I sincerely doubt I've found 100k items (excluding currency). How long do you expect players to go without an upgrade? 5 levels? 10, 15, 25 levels? Overall, I think POE does an excellent job at balancing power and pace. At the lower levels I find it very common to go ~5 levels without having upgraded a number of pieces. Frankly, at this difficulty skill trumps difficulty in most cases. However, once you get to your thirties (and obviously beyond) your EXP required grows substantially -- along with your time to level. Again, POE does a pretty fabulous job at difficulty curve (a few areas have already been smoothed out since OB launch).

Well, wheres the problem?

What are the odds of you finding a wand?
What are the odds of the wand being rare?
What are the odds of it rolling the stats you want (not life steal, ugh)?
What are the odds of this wand also rolling well, for it's level?
What are the odds of this wand (or any other item) also having the desired/minimum sockets?
What are the odds of the sockets being linked in a desirable fashion?

Ultimately, it sucks (that's the technical term, write it down) when you have a loot dry spell. There's nothing else to say about it. Your character progression feels much slower. If you're playing with friends you feel like you're falling behind.

Rebuke: That's why they give you currency--to spend!

Totally agree. According to Cronk's numbers STR have the advantage and I've even had a dry spell on my marauder. It happens. RNG swings both ways (for most people, mine's stuck on "FU").

But why do players that value INT more than anything else have to spend more? Why do STR players, gradually, "save" more currency?

Rebuke: Well, wands aren't that important!

Way to never play a caster. The weapon is as important as it was in D3, even though our spell dps isn't tied to the weapon dps. See, these wands come with "Modifiers". These "mods", as we like to call them, give bonuses. Wands can give some pretty nifty bonuses. Like, Cast speed and Spell Damage. Significant sources of damage. I can't believe someone actually said witches don't need wands.

Rebuke: No, seriously, it'll be okay in the end!

Yes, yes, we know that. Video games are about perception, not math, to most people. Perception is important.


Well said.

Everything.

*hats off*
You will never see a man faking anger, passion and relentless behavior.

You will always see a man faking love, politeness and respectful behavior.
Spoiler
"
Deceptionist wrote:
"
Tabx wrote:
"
Deceptionist wrote:

Cronk has a big enough sample size.

Witch doesn't have a big enough gear pool.



I want to jump back in and say that, before any want-to-be math professors jump on this, telling a new player that they don't have any gear because they don't have a large enough sample size isn't going to keep them around for long. Statistics (regarding video games) is a hard topic to approach because all we end up having in a thread regarding RNG are math majors (or persons that took a stats class in college) screaming that this small sample size is not enough. And that, mathematically, it will all "come out okay" in the end. One person, in cronk's thread, even went so far as to suggest that he find "440,000" items and THEN see the results.

That's bogus. You can clearly see the trend already playing out with his <500 analysis. That trend pretty clearly suggests that there is no weighting on drops. Do we know this for sure? No. GGG has said specifically before that they don't tell these numbers for a variety of reasons (among them specifically mentioned was the ability to change them rather frequently, though I think that specifically was referred to blue/rare/unique drops).

The Problem:

I don't play as much as many other people, but my character levels combined probably puts me between 200-300 character levels earned. I sincerely doubt I've found 100k items (excluding currency). How long do you expect players to go without an upgrade? 5 levels? 10, 15, 25 levels? Overall, I think POE does an excellent job at balancing power and pace. At the lower levels I find it very common to go ~5 levels without having upgraded a number of pieces. Frankly, at this difficulty skill trumps difficulty in most cases. However, once you get to your thirties (and obviously beyond) your EXP required grows substantially -- along with your time to level. Again, POE does a pretty fabulous job at difficulty curve (a few areas have already been smoothed out since OB launch).

Well, wheres the problem?

What are the odds of you finding a wand?
What are the odds of the wand being rare?
What are the odds of it rolling the stats you want (not life steal, ugh)?
What are the odds of this wand also rolling well, for it's level?
What are the odds of this wand (or any other item) also having the desired/minimum sockets?
What are the odds of the sockets being linked in a desirable fashion?

Ultimately, it sucks (that's the technical term, write it down) when you have a loot dry spell. There's nothing else to say about it. Your character progression feels much slower. If you're playing with friends you feel like you're falling behind.

Rebuke: That's why they give you currency--to spend!

Totally agree. According to Cronk's numbers STR have the advantage and I've even had a dry spell on my marauder. It happens. RNG swings both ways (for most people, mine's stuck on "FU").

But why do players that value INT more than anything else have to spend more? Why do STR players, gradually, "save" more currency?

Rebuke: Well, wands aren't that important!

Way to never play a caster. The weapon is as important as it was in D3, even though our spell dps isn't tied to the weapon dps. See, these wands come with "Modifiers". These "mods", as we like to call them, give bonuses. Wands can give some pretty nifty bonuses. Like, Cast speed and Spell Damage. Significant sources of damage. I can't believe someone actually said witches don't need wands.

Rebuke: No, seriously, it'll be okay in the end!

Yes, yes, we know that. Video games are about perception, not math, to most people. Perception is important.

"
Deceptionist wrote:

Well said.

Everything.

*hats off*


Thanks I added this part. You guys are going at it fast so my edits are lagging behind (and posts in general).

(Repost from previous post, after edit:)
Spoiler
Edit:

Rebuke: Wands don't count because everyone is forced towards a single weapon type

False. I avoid weapon types on most of my characters. My marauder especially. There are plenty of other nodes that give comparable damage or attack speed. You don't have to force yourself into, say, maces. Witches (spell casters, really, but witches is just easier to type) that want to use spell damage weapons won't find the mods too often on anything but wands. (Read: you cant get those on 2hers) Item mod spreadsheet


Appreciate your post Tabx. RNG sure sucks when it swings to FU, esp for new users. My recent Docks farm runs have been a prime example of that. 4 runs with nothing but 1 - 2 rares tops, then suddenly 1 run with 2 chaos drops and another with 2 fusings and 1 6S for 7 jewellers.

I agree with your observation and think strength definitely has an advantage in terms of weapons which most people would expect since they have lesser skills to choose from. If it's of any comfort, I think a elemental caster can still make do with say a dagger which gives good crit (which is incidentally what I actually tend to prefer) or a sceptre for elemental damage. This covers most of the casters' standard requirements except for the power siphon / EK builds. Would imagine bow guys having a tougher time but I suspect most bow users go in knowing full well what to expect there.

"
Tabx wrote:

Ultimately, it sucks (that's the technical term, write it down) when you have a loot dry spell. There's nothing else to say about it. Your character progression feels much slower. If you're playing with friends you feel like you're falling behind.

Rebuke: That's why they give you currency--to spend!

Totally agree. According to Cronk's numbers STR have the advantage and I've even had a dry spell on my marauder. It happens. RNG swings both ways (for most people, mine's stuck on "FU").

But why do players that value INT more than anything else have to spend more? Why do STR players, gradually, "save" more currency?

Rebuke: Well, wands aren't that important!

Way to never play a caster. The weapon is as important as it was in D3, even though our spell dps isn't tied to the weapon dps. See, these wands come with "Modifiers". These "mods", as we like to call them, give bonuses. Wands can give some pretty nifty bonuses. Like, Cast speed and Spell Damage. Significant sources of damage. I can't believe someone actually said witches don't need wands.

Rebuke: No, seriously, it'll be okay in the end!

Yes, yes, we know that. Video games are about perception, not math, to most people. Perception is important.
"
dlrr wrote:
Appreciate your post Tabx. RNG sure sucks when it swings to FU, esp for new users. My recent Docks farm runs have been a prime example of that. 4 runs with nothing but 1 - 2 rares tops, then suddenly 1 run with 2 chaos drops and another with 2 fusings and 1 6S for 7 jewellers.

I agree with your observation and think strength definitely has an advantage in terms of weapons which most people would expect since they have lesser skills to choose from. If it's of any comfort, I think a elemental caster can still make do with say a dagger which gives good crit (which is incidentally what I actually tend to prefer) or a sceptre for elemental damage. This covers most of the casters' standard requirements except for the power siphon / EK builds. Would imagine bow guys having a tougher time but I suspect most bow users go in knowing full well what to expect there.



In general, I think that's just a giant wall for loot based games (typically, ARPGS as other RPGS have other mechanics to keep players "up to speed" like frequent quest rewards in an mmo). Over all, any time loot is brought up it's a difficult discussion. If you make it drop too much, it loses it's appeal. If its not enough, players may get bored or frustrated. I think most people experience that loot pendulum with currency drops -- sometimes before they even realize what they had. (I found and used my first exalted orb on the beach in CB on my first character).

I've certainly used daggers in the past (my witch favors crit, and this build is working well over all.) Right now, loot gods have shown me favor through my wand and so I use that. And if any witches found a good scepter, of course they should use it. But, like with wands and staves, scepters have too many mods to reliably call them a lucky find. If I counted right, scepters and staves have 12 more mods to roll from than say, a Bow. (Wands have 10 more mods than a bow). This was brought up in another thread but to discuss it further would likely mean us going off topic but suffice to say it's difficult to craft one of these items.
"
Deceptionist wrote:
"
Grimmhammer wrote:


And here is my major disagreement - you HAVE to pick and choose in a certain respect. As another poster has said, you could argue that archers dont have a large enough gear pool, simply because bows are a small part of the loot table, and there are no other ranged weapons for dex users.

FACT: Witches have an equal ARMOUR pool to the other classes.


FACT: Wands count towards the general system: Witch Gear

FACT: Regardless of the Witch having the same Armour amount as any other "class", the smaller number of Wands makes the Witch Gear become undermined in comparison with other "classes".




what about other weapons such as staves,daggers etc... This is why this entire thing is pointless. people pick and choose what they see as witch gear conviently leaving out fully viable alternatives, or even in this case weapons wich are tradition consider caster weapons(such as a staff) to attempt this stupid theory that witches are somehow gimped whenit comes to drops.

I mean my post in the last one got completely ignored so i will re post it:

for these numbers to mean anything don't we need to set a baseline of what constitutes "witch gear" being as there are so many possible combinations of gear, passives, gems..etc its hard to really say whats what. Are you considering witch gear something along the lines of "what i need for my spec as a witch" or maybe "anything with intellect spell damage, and ES" If its the former I could possibly sympathize with you especially if your spec is an oddball one that requires harder to find gear but if its the latter all your math is meaningless as I see that kind of gear drop constantly. I mean really your whole post is meaningless because it lacks context.

In other words I dont get how this proves anything for either side.
Last edited by derbefrier#6652 on Mar 26, 2013, 2:16:21 PM
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FACT: All weapons can get shit rolls


Yes indeed. Or rather, 'most' items do indeed give shit rolls.

However, again, it's in the breakdown that we find the breakdown.

The wand is split between two main usages - physical attack and Spellcaster. This does not happen with a Bow. Every Bow mod will assist a Bow user as the item only has one function. The Wand has two functions.

For me, any wand with Accuracy, +Physical, +Elemental et al, are all not 'slightly' useless, but useless in that they might as well be a different item useless.

Likewise for a physical Wand user, my stats, Spell Damage, Cast Speed et al are not 'entriely' useless, but a lot less useful.

So Wand users are looking for a subsection of a main section which is, in reality, the equivalent in loot drops and mods to a subsection of a subsection.
"
derbefrier wrote:



what about other weapons such as staves,daggers etc... This is why this entire thing is pointless. people pick and choose what they see as witch gear conviently leaving out fully viable alternatives, or even in this case weapons wich are tradition consider caster weapons(such as a staff) to attempt this stupid theory that witches are somehow gimped whenit comes to drops.

I dont even need math to see through this. Its all a bunch of pointless posturing. "I have better maths than you!" nerd crap.


No, let me psychologically walk you through how this actually works:

1) OP makes an assessment with no errors so far.

2) Other people come in like a cockroach orgy that was disturbed by something, and then came here to take their anger out on OP.

3) I come in and I support OP, because I'm just that type of person.

4) Out of 99% people, 1% not only is backing up OP, but they have a formula to share that you obviously don't have the mathematical knowledge to comprehend (hence your envious statement near the bottom of your post).

5) Then you made your vacuous, ignorant and asinine statement about nothing to compensate for the fact you know nothing about anything in this thread! You're just another air puffing child that is butthurt by all of the logic and intelligence that this thread has compared to all of the shit post and troll posts everywhere else on these poor, suffering boards.
You will never see a man faking anger, passion and relentless behavior.

You will always see a man faking love, politeness and respectful behavior.
"
derbefrier wrote:
I dont even need math to see through this. Its all a bunch of pointless posturing. "I have better maths than you!" nerd crap.


I've avoided using numbers in my posts, can you quote me instead?

I don't know why you're so angry but I did just mention that the number of potential modifiers an item can have can vary from item type to item type. Bows and Maces have the fewest mods, therefore making it easier to gamble your items (or finding it). Daggers are a solid choice for using them as a weapon, but they do lack Cold% Damage and Fire% damage. Additionally, daggers have a couple more options for more less desirable mods like Additional Dex. Staves and Scepters are no man's land.

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