LABYRINTH ENCHANTS ARE RIGGED

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Perq wrote:

I'm calling for obligatory probability theory lessons for forum users... again. :____:

Why are you doing this to me?

Also, glove enchants are useless - my 11k-16k Decree of Tempest begs to differ C-:.

What was the previous time? Was it the ember box fiasco? Good times.

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Sygenilde wrote:

Please don't say impossible with statistics. Keep it to improbable.

Statistically, it is possible for the universe to end every day because all hydrogen atoms have a chance to fall apart. The chances, however, are a bit slim to consider making a plan for that occasion.

Eh, I don't agree with how Wolf used "impossible" but with statistics "impossible" isn't really a bizarre term to throw around. Everybody involved just inserts "theoretically possible but practically..." before "impossible" and saves the time of saying/writing it. Obviously this is with events much, much more unlikely than this thread topic.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

There aren't 362 skills in the game. Just count them.

Not sure how valid the listing is, but not counting the level 75 ones, there are 348ish (349?) listed here:

http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/List_of_helmet_enchantment_mods

Makes my eyes water trying to count those silly things.

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Umbra_the_Wolf wrote:

1. lol dude you should not even be allowed to respond. I'm not complaining about RNG, I've been doing games like this since they came into existence. Gauntlet Legends, Champions of Norrath, 12 years of Diablo 2 and 1000 hours of Path of Exile to say the least.

2. You're a fool man, 3. this is about the RNG NOT BEING TRULY RNG, ie- RIGGED. I was posing a scenario just to develop a picture of how things were and how thing are now since the addition of the Lab. RNG doesn't suck, it's what makes a game like this great. The strong standing on the backs of the weak, being better than anyone else because you won against the odds in this lottery of a game.

This NOT an RNG sucks thread

1. Lol, nobody cares who you think should be allowed to post, and who should not. Gotta admit, tho, that your attitude shows a lot about yourself. :D
2. No u
3. Sooo, we're back to the you don't know how math works point. I'm not sure we're going anywhere with this... :/ So yeah, roll out random insults mate, keep'em comin!

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dickhole_mcghee wrote:

"

Perq wrote:

I'm calling for obligatory probability theory lessons for forum users... again. :____:

Why are you doing this to me?

Also, glove enchants are useless - my 11k-16k Decree of Tempest begs to differ C-:.

What was the previous time? Was it the ember box fiasco? Good times.

Nah, it was some random ACT 4 SUCKS CUZ I RAN 2 ACT 4 MAPS, AND THEN I RAN 2 ACT 3 MAPS, AND I GOT DOUBLE THE DROPS, thus ACT 4 HAS 50% OF DROPS kind of thread. Fun stuff.
But yeah, box threads are also fun! :D

So many nerd dicks colliding while being swung about.

But yeah if there's XXX possibilities but you get one of 5 results constantly for 110 runs, clearly there's no likelihood (see how i use probability-type phrases?!) of results being skewed on purpose.

Feel free to math that while I go do something else.

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davidnn5 wrote:

there's XXX possibilities but you get one of 5 results constantly for 110 runs

wat are you talking about?

RIGGED BOYZ

There are 345 possible enchantments, with many skills getting 3 enchantments each. So 3/345=1/115 chance of getting one of these per attempt.

There are 82 skills with 3 possible enchantments: This means there are 82 different ways to get a 9-peat.

We can estimate the chance of 9 repeats of a single skill occurring over 110 attempts as 82*110!/(9!101!)*(1/115)^9*(114/115)^101

This estimates the odds of the OP situation at about .0045%. (The chance to 9-peat off skills with only two available enchantments is negligible.) That is very, very odd luck, but not impossible. It should happen once in about 22322 110-enchant trials. So not a "one in a billion" or even "one in a million," but one in about twenty thousand. Given the amount of enchantments being ran daily, it isn't impossible, but inevitable that something like this would happen eventually.

OP is in the "under 0.1%" luck club, though, and making a RNGesus weirdness thread seems fair to me, provided he retracts his ridiculous statement that things are rigged when we have GGG staff saying it's not.

TL;DR-
I didn't get what I want so now I'm mad about it and I'm going to spout some random crap about how the randomness can't really be random because my random crap isn't the random crap that I want and there was no randomness about it.

You know, in programming, in order to make people feel like results are random for some cases we'll actually use structured randoms - there is a list of possible results, the random result is then temporarily removed from the list of possible results. Another concept occasionally used is excluding the current item from the possible list, if the previous structured random isn't used (I believe, though I easily may be mistaken, that this is done for chroms).

Humans, as a rule, are so bad at understanding true random probability due to innate draw to finding patterns in everything, that random systems have to employ these cheats sometimes to make them feel more random. In addition, pseudo-random number generators are inherently flawed in that their results are deterministic rather than truly random (pRNG is an evaluated algorithm, so if you know all of the variables, you can compute the result - this is, funny enough, an issue in information security that has resulted in approaching true random number generators using things like radioactive decay).

Quite simply put, true random is hard for humans and computers, for different reasons.

Remember, no matter what result you get on any repeated random event (specifically unweighted or close weights), the chance of that event happening in that same order every time approaches astronomically low as you add more repetitions (such as the exact order of enchants for 110 labyrinths). People will tend to just grasp the patterns they see.

That said, as this IS programming...if multiple people are correlating that there are weird evidences of enchanting being weighted in some way, it probably would need dev attention, even if only to verify that it is actually working as intended. There could even be unexpected affects causing weighted results if there really is a problem, such as a problem with the RNG itself or even cosmic rays flipping a bit (outlandish sounding, sure...but it literally can happen); however, the plural of anecdote is not data - that is to say, one person reporting that they had bad results, or even several people saying they had bad results, is not evidence in and of itself.

TL;DR: RNG can be hard (to understand and do), so collect data if you believe there to be an issue