LABYRINTH ENCHANTS ARE RIGGED

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Summoner wrote:

It's not impossible, but a brief simulation suggests it's unlikely. According to this, there're 362 possible helmet enchantments (2 levels each). I used excel's random function to generate 110 values between 1 and 362, and the frequency formula to bin them by value. In 5000 trials I got a max of 6 repeats once (0.02%), a max of 5 repeats 31 times (.62%), a max of 4 repeats 476 times (9.52%), a max of 3 repeats 3275 times (65.5%), and a max of 2 repeats 1217 times (24.34%).

All of the 5000 trials had at least one repeat; but if the odds of all results are equally likely, Umbra_the_Wolf's results are extremely improbable.

That is really cool. I thought 9 was unlikely, but it looks like it is far more unlikely than I originally thought. Even though the OP clearly plays fast and loose with words like 'everyone' and 'impossible', the claim about it being rigged is a bit less far-fetched than I originally thought.

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silumit wrote:

if you want to know the probability of rolling it, say, 6 times of 110(not necessarily consequentially, just 6 hits), it is the same as probability of NOT rolling it 110-6=104 times, or (361/362)^104 = approx.75%.

No, this is incorrect. To see why, try working out the probability of rolling it 10 times using your method. Or 100 times.

If you use your brain, you'll see that the Excell simulation is probably the best way to go in this case. ;)

Please don't say impossible with statistics. Keep it to improbable.

Statistically, it is possible for the universe to end every day because all hydrogen atoms have a chance to fall apart. The chances, however, are a bit slim to consider making a plan for that occasion.

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Sygenilde wrote:

Please don't say impossible with statistics. Keep it to improbable.

Statistically, it is possible for the universe to end every day because all hydrogen atoms have a chance to fall apart. The chances, however, are a bit slim to consider making a plan for that occasion.

Wait, what?

The universe could end LITERALLY any moment? Why the fuck are we wasting our lives playing video games?

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Sygenilde wrote:

Please don't say impossible with statistics. Keep it to improbable.

Statistically, it is possible for the universe to end every day because all hydrogen atoms have a chance to fall apart. The chances, however, are a bit slim to consider making a plan for that occasion.

Come on man.
OP said he was a college graduate of psychology minoring in sociology and that he knows his brain. He can't be wrong can he?

I'm calling for obligatory probability theory lessons for forum users... again. :____:

Why are you doing this to me?

Also, glove enchants are useless - my 11k-16k Decree of Tempest begs to differ C-:.

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Umbra_the_Wolf wrote:

I've run the Lab on merciless 110 times now and I've seen Glacial Cascade 4x, Minion APS 6x, Split Arrow 4x, Mirror Arrow 9x.

THIS IS RIGGED. Out of 300 possible enchants this is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE even with random number generation.

Do you complete enchantments challenge by this runs?

Ok guys, so if everyone wants to keep saying what I have experienced is statistically unlikely, improbable, or impossible that's fine but that's NOT what I'm arguing.

I'm AGREEING WITH EVERYONE that what I have rolled IS so unlikely that IT MERITED THIS POST: HENCE, THE FU*KING LAB IS RIGGED.

Thank you and good night. Elvis has left the lab :D

P.S. Honestly I thought my bullets list would have cleared that up!!

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Qarl wrote:

Helmet enchants are evenly weighted. The repeats you report are certainly not mathematically impossible.

While getting that precise set of results again is not going to happen, getting a set of results with large number of repeats of things you don't want certainly can happen.

I'm calling B.S. on this flat-out, that's what this post is about. not math. It's about a slots-machine style game getting one more quarter from us, ie- more time in the game with less return than we invest to create a stable base. RIGGED.

By taking some assumptions we find something we don't like
1. If I'm right, then that means the game is set up to be able to mathematically cater to the house (to continue the gambling analogy)
2. If you're right, then still Random Number Generation is so evil it's almost a miracle it's used by POE in its base form, ie- raw numbers without filters. In which case it begs for some kind of filter like what we have for chromes on intelligence, dexterity, armor and mixed defense gear for changing colors.

No matter who is right or wrong, the entire LAB is a pile of steaming crap that was quite obviously created to keep people addicted by pouring as much time of their lives into it for as long as possible. One more quarter. One more level. One more enchantment. It's all the same in the end.

[Removed by support] Not even Diablo 2 was this horrible.

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Umbra_the_Wolf wrote:

THIS IS RIGGED. Out of 300 possible enchants this is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE even with random number generation.

Thanks for letting us know how math and random numbers work.

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dudiobugtron wrote:

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Summoner wrote:

It's not impossible, but a brief simulation suggests it's unlikely. According to this, there're 362 possible helmet enchantments (2 levels each). I used excel's random function to generate 110 values between 1 and 362, and the frequency formula to bin them by value. In 5000 trials I got a max of 6 repeats once (0.02%), a max of 5 repeats 31 times (.62%), a max of 4 repeats 476 times (9.52%), a max of 3 repeats 3275 times (65.5%), and a max of 2 repeats 1217 times (24.34%).

All of the 5000 trials had at least one repeat; but if the odds of all results are equally likely, Umbra_the_Wolf's results are extremely improbable.

That is really cool. I thought 9 was unlikely, but it looks like it is far more unlikely than I originally thought. Even though the OP clearly plays fast and loose with words like 'everyone' and 'impossible', the claim about it being rigged is a bit less far-fetched than I originally thought.

...except that if you read the OP carefully...

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Umbra_the_Wolf wrote:

I've run the Lab on merciless 110 times now and I've seen Glacial Cascade 4x, Minion APS 6x, Split Arrow 4x, Mirror Arrow 9x.

He didn't say he got the same Mirror Arrow enchantment 9 times; he said he got Mirror Arrow enchantments 9 times.

So 1/181, not 1/362. Roughly double the chance each roll, to the power of 110 rolls. Which means Umbra's experience is several billion times more likely than Summoner's math would imply, if he would have ever calculated it out past 6 repeats.