Donald Trump

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Xavderion wrote:

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Antnee wrote:

Yeah, except the governor specifically asked both of them not to go.

And what, you want him to grab a bucket? Directing FEMA isn't enough?

Is he directing FEMA from his golf course? Obama multitasking pro.

Seriously?

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Jojas wrote:

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Xavderion wrote:

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Antnee wrote:

Yeah, except the governor specifically asked both of them not to go.

And what, you want him to grab a bucket? Directing FEMA isn't enough?

Is he directing FEMA from his golf course? Obama multitasking pro.

Seriously?

Seriously, this is such a fuckin stretch.

How about we compare W's response to Katrina to Obama's response to the flood? Remember the whole "well we weren't asked for aid" (but they actually were) fiasco? The fucking horse-trainer head of FEMA? The fact that almost all of the 1300 (whatever number it was) deaths were due to the craptasticly delayed FEMA response?

And you want to knock Obama for... not doing a fucking photo-op?

I just can't.

He's back again lads http://cesrusc.org/election/

Despite all my reservations and concerns of a Trump candidacy, I would be surprised if he lost to Hillary Clinton. And if he does lose, it won't because of Clinton, it will be the fact that Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Trump (currently about 10%).

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SpanishMonarch wrote:

Despite all my reservations and concerns of a Trump candidacy, I would be surprised if he lost to Hillary Clinton. And if he does lose, it won't because of Clinton, it will be the fact that Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Trump (currently about 10%).

There is still more than 2 months to go. Lots of time for new Emails to get leaked, or idiotic off-putting things to say. And the debates! I think this time they will have quite a big impact, much more than in previous years.

Double post gives me a reason to say something else witty. Fk it, too much pressure. Oh wait! I know! Trump guaranteed the other day that 'when he runs for re-election in 2020, he'll get 95% of the African American vote because he'll do so many tremendous things for them in his first term'.

He had a pretty hard hitting line in the speech where he said 'you've been voting for the same Democratic politicians for decades, and you're still upset about your situation. What have you got to lose [by voting for me?] Hillary would rather give a job to a Syrian refugee than to members of the African American community.'

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SpanishMonarch wrote:

Despite all my reservations and concerns of a Trump candidacy, I would be surprised if he lost to Hillary Clinton. And if he does lose, it won't because of Clinton, it will be the fact that Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Trump (currently about 10%).

Lifting this from a 538 article. Combined with other polls, I would guess that Johnson is siphoning at least as many votes from Clinton. A lot of support for Johson/Stein is coming from the young crowd, and the youths voted Obama the last two cycles. Some of that crowd would still be under 30 for the below polls, and the newly over 18 but sub 30 were reasonably likely to be Sanders supports. Sanders supporters are more likely than most demos to call themselves independent and have views that line up with Clinton's (although their detest for Clinton specifically is pretty well known). So while it wouldn't quite be right to call Sanders voters 'Clinton voters', it would be at least as wrong to call them Trump voters too.


Clinton and Trump struggle with voters under the age of 30

POLLSTER -- CLINTON -- JOHNSON -- STEIN -- TRUMP
ABC News/Wash Po 43% -- 16% ------ 10% ----- 24%
Marist College -- 41 -- 23 ---------16 ----- 9
Morning Consult - 40 -- 14 -------- 8 ------ 23
Pew Research --- 38 --- 19 -------- 9 ------ 27
YouGov -------- 41 --- 14 -------- 8 ------ 19
Average -------- 41 --- 17 ------- 10 ------ 20

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SpanishMonarch wrote:

Despite all my reservations and concerns of a Trump candidacy, I would be surprised if he lost to Hillary Clinton. And if he does lose, it won't because of Clinton, it will be the fact that Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Trump (currently about 10%).

Then you must not be watching the polls. He's getting absolutely destroyed. Even hard-right, completely dismissible bullshit pollers are giving Hillary an edge.

All of the polls. All of them.

His "pivot" lasted exactly 24 hours, before he basically called out to black people: "what the hell do you have to lose"

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Antnee wrote:

Then you must not be watching the polls. He's getting absolutely destroyed. Even hard-right, completely dismissible bullshit pollers are giving Hillary an edge.

All of the polls. All of them.

http://cesrusc.org/election/

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Antnee wrote:

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SpanishMonarch wrote:

Despite all my reservations and concerns of a Trump candidacy, I would be surprised if he lost to Hillary Clinton. And if he does lose, it won't because of Clinton, it will be the fact that Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Trump (currently about 10%).

Then you must not be watching the polls. He's getting absolutely destroyed. Even hard-right, completely dismissible bullshit pollers are giving Hillary an edge.

All of the polls. All of them.

His "pivot" lasted exactly 24 hours, before he basically called out to black people: "what the hell do you have to lose"

Yes, I watch the polls. Moreover, I am a phd student in political science with a specialization in populism and radical politics. That being said, lets just say I'm skeptical of polling methodology. And just for the sake of conversation, there is a political science professor who has correctly predicted every popular vote since 1996 (and retroactively used his model to accurately predict since 1952). And his model has Trump winning with 86% certainty. Visit http://primarymodel.com/ to check it out.