There is a bug or intentional code in POE's random number generator that is causing streakiness.

About bugs : My friend ( and my friends don't have time to lie to me.. if they do they are already gone from my friend list ) told me about not having portal scrolls dropping for more than 1 week.. i don't know about my other friends but this one was saying the truth. So what do you think about this event ?

About Gambler's hot hand : Getting A 2nd Soul taker and a 2nd Shavs in the same day can be compared to it ? You tell me.

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Inexium wrote:

About bugs : My friend ( and my friends don't have time to lie to me.. if they do they are already gone from my friend list ) told me about not having portal scrolls dropping for more than 1 week.. i don't know about my other friends but this one was saying the truth. So what do you think about this event ?

Were you asking me? If so, substitute wisdom scrolls with portal scrolls:

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PolarisOrbit wrote:

The second thread about wisdom scrolls is either a bug, a troll, or incomplete information. That is a matter for GGG to determine, not the community.

edit: that's assuming he/she thought it was important enough to file a bug report

I have a question, i will be very surprised to hear you ( all of you ) saw the same thing happening, and i hope os.


Did you ever experience when you have been hoarding an orb for a good moment then one day you spend all of them of some of them.
You go killing monsters.. and : The hoarded orb that stoped droping for a moment just start to drop again :o
?

I am very suspicious yet it's not that important to me.

Could that thing affect rng clouds ?

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klayveR wrote:

I don't know if this counts, but I did some Merveil runs. First 4 runs - no uniques.

Then this happened...

And in the next run...

In the next 7 runs not even 1 unique. Somethings wrong.

holy crap what game is this. ive never seen so much loot since diablo 2.

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Inexium wrote:

I have a question, i will be very surprised to hear you ( all of you ) saw the same thing happening, and i hope os.


Did you ever experience when you have been hoarding an orb for a good moment then one day you spend all of them of some of them.
You go killing monsters.. and : The hoarded orb that stoped droping for a moment just start to drop again :o
?

I am very suspicious yet it's not that important to me.

Could that thing affect rng clouds ?

I have felt this way with some orbs. Alchs mostly. Fusing always seem to be in short supply with me so cant really tell for sure there. But I do get periods of time where I will stack up my alchs until I have like 2-3 stacks. At that point sometimes it does feel like my account isnt allowed any more without trading for them. At this point I start finding good white bases to dump em into and then they start dropping again.

Its only really with alchs for me, they are the only orb that have any time to pile up in my stash.

All of this really could just be the streakiness showing up at strange times and making it look as though this is what happening.

I will agree though that there is definitely some level of streakiness in this system. Who knows, it might be intentional as well. Would seem a good way to really foster that addictive feeling.

Say a person with a real addiction to gambling goes for a very long period of time with nothing for drops then all of a sudden, boom!, a big blowout so to speak, where a large number(relatively) of very valuable items drop in a short span. How does this gambler feel? Do they think "OK, that was my big payout maybe i broke even" or do they think "Sweet, if I endure a long stretch of bad luck my payout will be awesome". I think its the latter.

Just a couple weeks ago I experienced this. Hadnt seen an exalt in around 3 months. Then, one day while I was farming lunaris an eternal orb dropped, then just a couple runs later I found an exalt and a 17% ele hit gem in the same run. After that, the next day I dropped a Voltaxic Rift. Havent found anything noteworthy since then.

Here we go again:
http://boallen.com/random-numbers.html

Honestly, I've also 'felt' like this while playing many times. It feels like there is a playtime associated with when things drop. I noticed it when I grinded docks for about 10 levels once. It's like the codes is 'x number of hours played, time for a rare with decent affixes to drop. In one clear I even had a gcp, fusing, alch and some linked gear drop.

This is something that we can never probably confirm, but when you look at GGGs attitude towards mechanics and the way they use rng, I honestly think that the 'randomness' has a few time based conditions built in. Player has x hours, throw him a bone......

I just flipped a quarter 20 times (really, I did). It's a US 2013 with "Great Basin, Nevada" on the back minted in the "P" mint. I can post a picture if you don't believe me.

The results, in order, were:

THHTT
HTTTT
HTTTH
HHTTT

There must be something wrong with the universe's RNG, because look how streaky that was. I had 4 Tails in a row once, and then after that I had 3 Tails, then 3 Heads, then 3 Tails again. In fact, I had 13 Tails and only 7 Heads. Out of 20 runs! No way can such streakiness be attributed to probability. There must be something behind the scenes to explain it. Maybe the universe wants me to trade my quarter with somebody who has one that favors Heads so everything will even out.

Come on, people. Drop rates are not set for each player and each run individually. They are across all the servers. So if something has a 1 in 10 chance of dropping, and 10 people do 10 runs each at the same time, what are the odds that each person got that drop once? If one person didn't get that drop and another got it twice, is that no longer random?

Ever notice how in groups of people smaller than 365, there are people that share the same birthday?

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Powertrip wrote:

I honestly think that the 'randomness' has a few time based conditions built in. Player has x hours, throw him a bone......

Unless that player is XDementia, in that case make sure he reaches level 82 without seeing a single exalted drop.

I wouldn't be surprised the slightest if the game's RNG was not entirely random (see how slot machines work), but I think there's a wee bit too much tinfoil hatery going on here.

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XDementia wrote:

"

Powertrip wrote:

I honestly think that the 'randomness' has a few time based conditions built in. Player has x hours, throw him a bone......

Unless that player is XDementia, in that case make sure he reaches level 82 without seeing a single exalted drop.

I wouldn't be surprised the slightest if the game's RNG was not entirely random (see how slot machines work), but I think there's a wee bit too much tinfoil hatery going on here.

agreed. It started out alright, but saying what you have in your stash matters is beyond pushing the envelope.