There is a bug or intentional code in POE's random number generator that is causing streakiness.

There are a number of examples noted here, including several Lioneye's Paws drops in a row: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/517989/page/1

Someone in global chat found two Shavronne's Wrappings within an hour.

No change in IIQ/IIR in my following experiences. I run 0 iiq, about 30 iir.

I go for weeks without seeing RGB linked rares. Then, I see two drop in an hour. Since then, I've seen no more RGB linked rares.

I go for days without even seeing a gem drop. Five quality gems drop within one play session. I I see no more quality gems drop for a couple of days. Two quality gems drop within a few minutes of each other.

I go for months without seeing any high-end orbs. Then, in one day, I find a GCP, an Eternal, and an Exalted.

These three streaks happened almost in sequence (RGB linked rares, then qgems, then high orb drops).

I do not know if this streakiness can be exploited, as Inexium theorizes in the thread I linked above, but the number of anecdotes recounted during my playtime far, FAR outnumbers the expected number of "streaks" you would find in any statistical t-test accounting for apophenia.

The probability of two RGB linked rares dropping within an hour on its own is already a bit mind-boggling. Combine that with an eternal then an exalt within a few hours? AND the fact that COUNTLESS other people have noted similar streaks?

There is an error in POE's random number generator that is causing streakiness.

EDIT: And yes, I am being completely serious here. Unfortunately, I play games to have fun, not do science, so I didn't bother recording my gameplay in order to take note of streaks, set up control properties to watch for, etc. But the fact that there's an error in the RNG algorithm is pretty clear to me. Streaks pop up WAY too often for there not to be. There have been lots of other examples of streakiness before the three anecdotes I listed above in my own play, too.

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/522507

Beta bug report thread; topic title reads "I drop 0 wisdom since few weeks"

0 wisdom scrolls in the span of a few weeks. Call that apophenia, will you.

While I will agree the streakiness does seem unusually high, ive actually thought the rng is tied to something. Not gonna say what though.

I also wouldnt count rgb links in that though. Personally, those always seem to drop properly random.

It may be worth noting that what I've observed in POE is almost completely the opposite of apophenia.

I wasn't even looking for patterns of repeated things when my 3 anecdotes above happened. They just HAPPENED. When I noticed a streak, I said, "hey, cool." I didn't think, "Wow, I should look for more streaks." And yet, 3 streaks in a row happened.

On the contrary when I do set my mind to look for patterns in true apophenic style, they just don't happen. For example, utility flasks. One just dropped, so I thought, "that's fairly unlikely. If I see a bunch of utility flasks in a row, maybe that's another streak!"

Guess how many utility flasks dropped for me lately? That's right, zero. I'll still keep an eye out, though. There could be a case for apophenia if I suddenly find that lots of utility flasks are dropping. But if a reasonable amount drops? Yeah, that'd be a pretty good sign I know the difference between apophenia and true streaks.

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adghar wrote:

I go for weeks without seeing RGB linked rares. Then, I see two drop in an hour. Since then, I've seen no more RGB linked rares.

I go for days without even seeing a gem drop. Five quality gems drop within one play session. I I see no more quality gems drop for a couple of days. Two quality gems drop within a few minutes of each other.

I go for months without seeing any high-end orbs. Then, in one day, I find a GCP, an Eternal, and an Exalted.

These three streaks happened almost in sequence (RGB linked rares, then qgems, then high orb drops).

What are your expectations?

RNG averages over a long period of time (samples); not a short period of time. A streak is a short period of time. That applies to both bad luck streaks and good luck streaks.

This is one of those things that seems significant to your own experience but in the public there will probably be less consensus. RNG is supposed to have streaks of unpredictable results, that's what distinguishes it from other systems like accumulating XP points which are predictable and smooth. What you've described is that the RNG is, in fact, an RNG.

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PolarisOrbit wrote:

This is one of those things that seems significant to your own experience but in the public there will probably be less consensus.

There's tons of consensus. Check the first thread I linked.

By the way, what you've regurgitated is a good general rule of thumb to take. But in truth, it's a question of magnitude.

Seeing 999 in a sequence of randomly generated numbers is randomly generated numbers.

Seeing 999999999999999 in a sequence of "randomly generated numbers" is a sign that something may be wrong with RNG.

I don't know if this counts, but I did some Merveil runs. First 4 runs - no uniques.


In the next 7 runs not even 1 unique. Somethings wrong.

Hi,

I think they made it on purpose!

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Inexium wrote:

RNG is a cloud that divide its lucky drops from a player to another player, it can give a player some kind of gems and another player some other kind, i think the purpose is to promote trading.

Why ?

I think it has something to do with the psychology of a player, finding 2 soul takers, 2 mirrors, 2 shavronne's is possible ( ok maybe not 2 mirrors ) to allow PoE to not be monotonous!

It worked, and i will search for the ways that allow us to abuse it..

When i play, i usually say to myself when i have a good "rng cloud" ( =good iir ) : do not unlogg until rng favors go away.

Could we expand my observations on maps ? Like sometimes : 0 map, some other times : a ton ?
Are this cloud maps balanced ?
Check the number of maps this guy got here : http://www.twitch.tv/bakerlive/c/2940500


Now, that i put these observations under the light what ggg will do ?
GGG : tell us more^^

I've always blamed RNG for my bad luck but if this thread is correct I'm programed to lose. Fight the power!

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adghar wrote:

There's tons of consensus. Check the first thread I linked.

Alright. In the first thread you linked there is somewhat positive consensus when replies are counted as either up-vote or down-vote. But looking at the actual content of the replies agreeing with the OP, it was common to see results unrelated to the actual claims of the OP. The OP suggested that when you have good luck then you might continue getting the same luck if you keep playing, so you should keep playing. This is known as the gambler's hot hand, which is a common enough proposition to have a fallacy named for it (in other words, it is easy to believe even when it is false). One particular person supported it by saying they had been having bad luck, continued playing, eventually had good luck, and thanked the OP for the helpful advice (the opposite of original claim). If there were a flaw, one might expect everyone to experience the same bias instead. Consider an alien trying to identify what kind of flaw(s) were in the POE RNG based on user reports like those found in that thread. What conclusion(s) might it come to, and with what confidence?

The second thread about wisdom scrolls is either a bug, a troll, or incomplete information. That is a matter for GGG to determine, not the community. If it is indeed a bug, GGG should have been able to pick it up from the report, additional threads with vaguer claims do not make fixing the bug any easier. Seeing the response to it by someone who couldn't find maps shows just how passionately claimants of bias will latch onto anything to add credence to their belief.

Having said all that, I wouldn't be against GGG inspecting their RNG code. It's important enough to the game that players should have confidence in its efficacy. We've all been there where we think the RNG is against us, and it's frustrating to get stuck. I am not saying the RNG is perfect, only that the evidence brought against it is not [large] enough to condemn it.

In closing, I will leave you with these words of wisdom:

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adghar wrote:

But in truth, it's a question of magnitude.