What are odds of chancing high tier uniques now?

I hear it used to be 1:500 to chance any unique, but now crappy uniques are easier to get and awesome ones are significantly harder.

I've done approximately 1700 siege axes, and no soul taker (nor a decent rare, btw, but most ilvls were 63-68).

Thanks for any feedback!

The orb itself was being tracked before the higher tiers got a less likely possibility of being rolled.

By what i have seen there is no way to tell, ive seen people chance items within 150 orbs ( shavs, voidbattery etc) and ive seen people use 2000 and get nothing.... its really just RNG for real...... good luck....

I know this game is RNG incarnate :)

I was wondering if GGG released any of the new odds?

AFAIK they said it used to be 1:500, no?

Even if it was 1:500 , this would mean every chance orb you use has a 1:500 to get u that unique, and the 1:500 would reset every time u use a new chance orb.

Even if it was 1:2 chance, u could stil end up spending 2000+ chances to get one unique, dependingon on the mood of rngesus.

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Boem wrote:

Even if it was 1:500 , this would mean every chance orb you use has a 1:500 to get u that unique, and the 1:500 would reset every time u use a new chance orb.

Even if it was 1:2 chance, u could stil end up spending 2000+ chances to get one unique, dependingon on the mood of rngesus.

I see that statement time and again and while its true it is very misleading.

Everything in this game has a certain probability. You can think of it as a gaussian distribution (roughly).
It has a mean- an average number that it should take.And while RNG is RNG for every individual roll, the sum of a lot of rolls should begin to form a pattern. (just like it takes roughly 130-150 fuses for 5L but a some people get it in 15 and some like me have needed 250+)

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Lexx691 wrote:

I know this game is RNG incarnate :)

I was wondering if GGG released any of the new odds?

AFAIK they said it used to be 1:500, no?

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Never tell me the odds.

It is easier to convince the Mexican cartell to stop dealing drugs than it is to convince GGG to release those probabilities.

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mazul wrote:

It is easier to convince the Mexican cartell to stop dealing drugs than it is to convince GGG to release those probabilities.

Right, and for a good reason.

If GGG released the official numbers, they would be affecting the actual trade value of resulting items. I.E. If they released an official figure on number of fusing it takes to 6L an item, it takes away from the community coming up with a price that has variance. Instead, most would come to a consensus on how much it should be with no flexibility on the price.

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KromBoy wrote:

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mazul wrote:

It is easier to convince the Mexican cartell to stop dealing drugs than it is to convince GGG to release those probabilities.

Right, and for a good reason.

If GGG released the official numbers, they would be affecting the actual trade value of resulting items. I.E. If they released an official figure on number of fusing it takes to 6L an item, it takes away from the community coming up with a price that has variance. Instead, most would come to a consensus on how much it should be with no flexibility on the price.

this explains it really good

the community "believes" it takes round ~700 fuses to get a 6l in average which is the reason why buyout lotterys are set at 10x reward most of the time

same with chance the community believed it was 1:500...

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KromBoy wrote:

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mazul wrote:

It is easier to convince the Mexican cartell to stop dealing drugs than it is to convince GGG to release those probabilities.

Right, and for a good reason.

If GGG released the official numbers, they would be affecting the actual trade value of resulting items. I.E. If they released an official figure on number of fusing it takes to 6L an item, it takes away from the community coming up with a price that has variance. Instead, most would come to a consensus on how much it should be with no flexibility on the price.

6-links is not so bad given that someone(forgot name) made a gigantic investigation about it.


The problem is that unless you are extremely rich, there are many things you can simply not find out the probabilities for to a sufficient accuracy.


Of course changing from having little information to exact information would affect the prices.


However, in a virtual market with currency that has no legit RL value such as PoE's there is nothing inheretely wrong with a price change. If they were afraid of price changes, then they wouldn't have done a lot of the previous patches.


There would be flexibility like just there is now: currency is rather fix in respect to other currency, common uniques are rather fix, but the top-end items have varying supply and varying demand and thus have "flexible" prices.

The major difference is that rather than being almost blind and do practically blind gambling (fusing case is not blind given that we have a good idea) people will be able to do informed decisions about how much risk they are willing to take.