Exalted Orb Decay - A tiny change with potentially very large impact to the economy

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Hercanic wrote:

@Novalisk:

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Novalisk wrote:

If you leave things without a price ceiling then you leave it open to the free market, and free market is vulnerable to RMT.

A free market is what GGG wants.

What data do you have on the actual impact of RMT? Without any statistical information, you are treating it as a boogeyman, a scapegoat to explain away any perceived problems.

Data for this is impossible to get, but it makes perfect sense:

1. RMT sets up offers for Exalted orbs using current top offers for lower tier currencies.

2. RMT buys the majority of Exalted orbs on the market.

3. Value of Exalted orbs keeps rising.

4. RMT sells Exalted orbs for top dollar.

What I can say without a shadow of a doubt, is that whoever holds the most exalted orbs wants them to go up in value. What I cannot prove is that RMT's drive up the value, but it makes perfect sense for them to do so.

@Novalisk:
Trading in PoE is a slow, manual, time-consuming affair. How do you suppose RMT groups bought up all the Exalted Orbs? For the sake of argument, let's say they did. They've driven up the price of Exalted Orbs, and are selling them off for $$$. Now, how do they buy more? They've depleted their in-game wealth, and with the price driven up there is no practical way to acquire more Exalted Orbs through trade.

Trading isn't the answer. It's farming. But if that's the case, then RMT would be introducing more Exalted Orbs into circulation, since they themselves don't consume them, thereby driving down its price due to its decreasing rarity.

Orbs are not like diamonds. No one can monopolize their source. Every day, thousands of independent players are generating new Exalted Orbs. You simply cannot corner that kind of market.

(If you insist on this conspiracy theory, GGG could probably run a search to find out if anyone is actually hoarding a significant portion of the Exalted Orbs that exist. However, the more likely explanation is that there has been a spike in the consumption of Exalted Orbs, such as on high-end Rares with the new Eternal Orbs.)

Actually, Hercanic, as long as the supply is lower than the demand, the price rises.

So as long as they keep injecting a low enough amount into the economy, the price keeps rising.

All they have to do is farm alot, but only sell at a controlled pace.

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Regarding Economy, there are several factors contributing to its unbalance:
- The way Orbs are designed discourages low level characters from using them.
Everyone is encouraged to hoard and/or sell their currency, rather than using it.
This creates inflation, scams and speculation.

If players are encouraged to craft at lower level, they will:
- have more fun
- have a realistic sense of orb value

If something similar to the below is implemented, perhaps for most types of orbs, the game will improve in various angles.

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Nurvus wrote:

Perhaps separating certain Orbs into multiple "qualities" would be good.

This could go for Exalted, Jeweler's and Fusing, at least.
You'd have:
Minor Exalted Orb - More common than Lesser Exalted Orb, but lower iLvl on the properties.
Lesser Exalted Orb - More common than Exalted Orb, but lower iLvl on the properties.
Exalted Orb - Does what it does now.

Minor Jeweler's Orb - More common than a Lesser Jeweler's Orb, upgrades a 1-slot to a 2-slot.
Lesser Jeweler's Orb - More common than a Jeweler's Orb, upgrades a 2-slot to a 3-slot.
Jeweler's Orb - Does what it does now.

Minor Orb of Fusing - More common than a Lesser Orb of Fusing, upgrades a 1L to a 2L.
Lesser Orb of Fusing - More common than an Orb of Fusing, upgrades a 2L to a 3L.
Orb of Fusing - Does what it does now.

Adding Minor and Lesser Orbs would not affect Economy whatsoever, as economy is based on items that can be used by high level characters.

You might even see low level characters trading to a high level character a X Orb of Fusing for X Lesser Orb of Fusing + Nice Leveling Item.

The higher level characters would have stuff to give to lower level characters to help them level up, besides items alone.

Lower level characters would have the means and encouragement to craft and learn the game to its fullest.

I think it's a win-win situation without any real sort of balancing necessary.
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Other orbs, such as Alteration, etc, could also have a recipe of sorts that transforms an Orb of Alteration into X Lesser Orbs of Alteration, wich would have a lower cap on the iLevel of properties it can give an item.

Similarly, Lesser Orbs might be possible to convert into Minor Orbs.

The reverse would not be possible, however.

@Nurvus:

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Nurvus wrote:

Actually, Hercanic, as long as the supply is lower than the demand, the price rises.

So as long as they keep injecting a low enough amount into the economy, the price keeps rising.

All they have to do is farm alot, but only sell at a controlled pace.

Prices rise when supply shrinks and/or demand spikes. For prices to continually rise, supply must continually decrease and/or demand must continually increase. RMT selling at a controlled rate would merely keep prices stable, so how does your theory account for the sudden price hike?

I am telling you, it has nothing to do with a De Beers-level control of supply (which is impossible in this game). Demand is what has spiked, spurred on by Eternal Orbs which allow safe usage of Exalted Orbs to get perfect Rares. Because players are using more Exalted Orbs the supply is also shrinking, causing a compounding effect to the price of Exalted Orbs.

This thread is another kneejerk reaction in a long history of kneejerk posts to economy shifts caused by patch changes. It's as if some people expect ratios to never change in a free market. Once rich players have their perfect Rares and slow down their consumption of the orb, you will see a drop in Exalted Orb prices. However, it will still remain higher than before due to the presence of Eternal Orbs.

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Hercanic wrote:

@Nurvus:

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Nurvus wrote:

Actually, Hercanic, as long as the supply is lower than the demand, the price rises.

So as long as they keep injecting a low enough amount into the economy, the price keeps rising.

All they have to do is farm alot, but only sell at a controlled pace.

Prices rise when supply shrinks and/or demand spikes. For prices to continually rise, supply must continually decrease and/or demand must continually increase. RMT selling at a controlled rate would merely keep prices stable, so how does your theory account for the sudden price hike?

I am telling you, it has nothing to do with a De Beers-level control of supply (which is impossible in this game). Demand is what has spiked, spurred on by Eternal Orbs which allow safe usage of Exalted Orbs to get perfect Rares. Because players are using more Exalted Orbs the supply is also shrinking, causing a compounding effect to the price of Exalted Orbs.

This thread is another kneejerk reaction in a long history of kneejerk posts to economy shifts caused by patch changes. It's as if some people expect ratios to never change in a free market. Once rich players have their perfect Rares and slow down their consumption of the orb, you will see a drop in Exalted Orb prices. However, it will still remain higher than before due to the presence of Eternal Orbs.

Supply doesn't need to continually decrease nor must demand continually increase.
Supply must simply remain below the demand, and it causes a gradual increase in price, not so different from what happens in a REAL auction house.

Essentially, prices keep stable IF the supply meets the demand.
No matter how much RMT sells, if they keep the supply below the demand, the prices rise.

What you said afterwards isn't wrong, but you're trying to pass it as the only/main cause. It is not.

My suggestion doesn't fix everything. It improves gameplay overall, however.

@Nurvus:
A lower supply than demand raises the price, yes, but a higher price lowers demand. Orbs aren't like food or other essentials; there is no baseline need. Equilibrium naturally happens. RMT would need to keep reducing their output to stay ahead of that equilibrium.

Regardless, RMT does not control the supply, so therefore does not control the price. They can only deflate its value by pumping more of what their farmers find into the economy, not inflate it by holding back.

Add in the recent Level 25 restriction on currency trading and GGG hunting down RMT shell accounts, and your case for a RMT-driven and -controlled economy becomes less credible.

im having serious thoughts in moving to hardcore because noobs want 70 chaos for an exalted... please ggg you need to fix his!

It is indeed a not bad idea!




quick counter-suggestion : Exalteds would only drop in Hardcore, Anarchy and onslaught (thus increasing the value of exalted orbs in Standard mode and at the same decrease their drop rate to 1/4 of the current)

A better idea: "Soft-Bind" certain (or all) orbs to account.

Game mechanics justified by fluff (see also: not arbitrary): Orbs are useless trinkets in the presence of most; it is not until they are handled by one possessed of the ability to command a Virtue Gem that their thaumaturgic properties are awakened. Once awakened, they will bond to the will of those who command them, and become highly unstable when separated from their masters.

The actual game mechanics: Some (or all) orbs are bound to the account of the player who picked them up. Once dropped or traded, they become unbound. Unbound orbs decay over time until worthless. (Aside: if applied to all orbs, should not apply to scrolls of wisdom. They are after all, only sales receipts ;) Why would receipts bond to one's will? That just wouldn't make sense).

Edit: Several implications I was going to discuss, but company just arrived.. So maybe later.

Edit: Returned, but want to get back to the game. So quickly, I'll go summarize my thoughts. Note: This is pure speculation.
If only certain orbs (Divine, Eternal, Exalted, and Mirrors) then the standard of exchange would fall to the next most valuable orbs. These are GCP and Regal. Regal are used very frequently, they don't (from what I've seen) tend to sit around and accumulate like exalted orbs do, because their function is integral to mapping and trans-alt crafting (they are more useful than exalted). This leaves GCP as the most likely standard for exchange, which imo is a good thing. Even if their value inflates well beyond the average players means to acquire them, they will still be much less exclusive to the player base as a whole, than exalted a are. The reason is, GCP improve the quality of a gem, and quality gems will always be tradable for a sum of gcp. This is pretty sweet, because quality gems aren't exactly rare. Even if an item that cost 30 exalted were to cost 300 gcp instead, players would at least still be able to make progress towards acquiring that item.

If all orbs, then the purpose of orbs is reinforced as a craftable item and the standard of exchange it weakened as a whole. This could also be a good thing, as the economy becomes entirely about using orbs for crafting and bartering with items.

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