Why is everything plummeting in price?

"

BlackMarshes212 wrote:

Speculation: Maybe it's linked to the fact that today, GGG did a ban-wave on people using third-party tools to gain an upper hand over everyone else? Maybe they did a stealth ban-wave on bots? That usually does the trick.

BTW, you are correct... in a normal market (no bots / no rmt) if players left the game the prices would go down. That's not what we usually see in the game though, so no idea.

Receipts:

GGG's post on the usage of third-party tools that has led to many people getting banned, some of them banned while they replied to that post. Some of these people openly admitting to cheating and getting insta-banned (https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/115464)

The vast majority of players quit by the 4th week, prices usually freeze from week 4 until week 10 - 14, then they drop. I still don't understand what invisible hand magically holds the prices when the vast majority of players quit the game... but whatever.



We are in the 8th week, bit early for the prices to plumet.

The post from GGG you linked was posted in 2013... what on Earth does that have to do with the price in the league today?

Nobody is getting banned for anything we've been using for 10 years today. Some weirdo necroed the thread but it's not a new thread from GGG.

If bots get banned the price of various things would usually go up due to a lack of supply, not down.

youre all working on a premise that everything is plummeting in price.


where is the evidence for that?


a mageblood was down at 81 divines each a few weeks ago, its at 139 now. a kalandra ring was 23 divines a few weeks ago, its 29 minimum now.

'everything' is plummeting in price?





the exchange rate between chaos and divines is changing. the above items are becoming more expensive, you could just as easily see this as chaos becoming more expensive?

"why is everything becoming more expensive?"

^ this statement to me seems to have more evidence for being true than the premise youre all working off? im not saying its rly correct either but it would appear closer to being supported than its opposite?

"

Pathological wrote:

Spoiler

"

BlackMarshes212 wrote:

Speculation: Maybe it's linked to the fact that today, GGG did a ban-wave on people using third-party tools to gain an upper hand over everyone else? Maybe they did a stealth ban-wave on bots? That usually does the trick.

BTW, you are correct... in a normal market (no bots / no rmt) if players left the game the prices would go down. That's not what we usually see in the game though, so no idea.

Receipts:

GGG's post on the usage of third-party tools that has led to many people getting banned, some of them banned while they replied to that post. Some of these people openly admitting to cheating and getting insta-banned (https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/115464)

The vast majority of players quit by the 4th week, prices usually freeze from week 4 until week 10 - 14, then they drop. I still don't understand what invisible hand magically holds the prices when the vast majority of players quit the game... but whatever.



We are in the 8th week, bit early for the prices to plumet.

The post from GGG you linked was posted in 2013... what on Earth does that have to do with the price in the league today?

Nobody is getting banned for anything we've been using for 10 years today. Some weirdo necroed the thread but it's not a new thread from GGG.

If bots get banned the price of various things would usually go up due to a lack of supply, not down.

You are correct! I shouldn't have said "today".

From my first reply until the edit (added a bit more text / graphs) I've been clear that it's pure speculation (the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence). Furthermore, I was clear that the only person that could shed some light is an "actual economist working at GGG".



Regardless, you are correct. I didn't realize it was a necro post. I will remove the word today.

Now...

On your last comment "If bots get banned the price of various things would usually go up" that is not correct and easily verifiable with hard evidence https://imgur.com/7yGjjKm

If bots get banned, prices drop. Why?

1. Bots need to list a price (with a markup) that's how they get more inventory and that's how they make a profit. It's the nature of their role.

2. If GGG suddenly does a ban wave all those bloated prices are eliminated from the marketplace, hence the prices go down.

"

Snorkle_uk wrote:

youre all working on a premise that everything is plummeting in price.


where is the evidence for that?


a mageblood was down at 81 divines each a few weeks ago, its at 139 now. a kalandra ring was 23 divines a few weeks ago, its 29 minimum now.

'everything' is plummeting in price?





the exchange rate between chaos and divines is changing. the above items are becoming more expensive, you could just as easily see this as chaos becoming more expensive?

"why is everything becoming more expensive?"

^ this statement to me seems to have more evidence for being true than the premise youre all working off? im not saying its rly correct either but it would appear closer to being supported than its opposite?

This is just as true as the OP. If you scan many of the categories of items on PoE Ninja, the vast majority of high-value items have dropped 20% in the last week, after steadily rising for basically the rest of the league. A couple items are bouncing around, but the general trend is way down in a short amount of time.

BUT you could be on to something and ALL of this could be because Chaos orbs have RISEN in value 20ish % causing EVERYTHING else to fall by that same amount. This could actually be a sign of a SUCCESSFUL price-fixing campaign centered around chaos orb value! There's no legitimate reason chaos orbs would naturally RISE in value at this point in the league, and especially not THIS league.

"

jsuslak313 wrote:

"

Snorkle_uk wrote:

youre all working on a premise that everything is plummeting in price.


where is the evidence for that?


a mageblood was down at 81 divines each a few weeks ago, its at 139 now. a kalandra ring was 23 divines a few weeks ago, its 29 minimum now.

'everything' is plummeting in price?





the exchange rate between chaos and divines is changing. the above items are becoming more expensive, you could just as easily see this as chaos becoming more expensive?

"why is everything becoming more expensive?"

^ this statement to me seems to have more evidence for being true than the premise youre all working off? im not saying its rly correct either but it would appear closer to being supported than its opposite?

This is just as true as the OP. If you scan many of the categories of items on PoE Ninja, the vast majority of high-value items have dropped 20% in the last week, after steadily rising for basically the rest of the league. A couple items are bouncing around, but the general trend is way down in a short amount of time.

BUT you could be on to something and ALL of this could be because Chaos orbs have RISEN in value 20ish % causing EVERYTHING else to fall by that same amount. This could actually be a sign of a SUCCESSFUL price-fixing campaign centered around chaos orb value! There's no legitimate reason chaos orbs would naturally RISE in value at this point in the league, and especially not THIS league.

yeah that website displays values in chaos right?

its showing for exmaple kalandra rings having gone down steadily for the last 3 weeks but theyve gone from costing 23 divines to the cheapest on the market being 30 divines right now, thats 1 divine more expensive than the 29 it was at yesterday when i looked.

its showing mageblood at -14% but a mageblood today is 55 divines more expensive than it was about 2 weeks ago, its price in divines has been steadily going up.


why did mageblood drop to about 80 divines for a while there? i wandered it that was market manipulation for sure. some people theorised it was because of valdo maps and then when they added more valdos to the pool it reduced the amount of magebloods coming from them. its all pretty guessworky.


like you say though divines are falling in value against chaos which effects the data. people are not listing high end items for chaos theyre listing them for divines. so if someone has a unique up for 10 divines 3 weeks ago thats 1650 chaos and the same item still listed at 10 divines today would register as 1200 chaos which would appear as a 25% drop in price despite the actual price being steady.




as a league starts to die down you get a split between people who dont care about standard and those who do, so you got people dumping stuff with little care while others are looking to maximise the value of their holdings on the transition. prices and exchange rates historically have moved towards standard rates as a league dies out because the only people who still care working off those rates so u get a demand buildup where ever theres a difference which then evens out the rates.

maybe you just get people holding on to tons of divines through the league and they get to a point where they just say fuck, league over, im gonna dump my divines either into something lolcopter like locusing their entire character/running valdo maps for the memes or im gonna buy this item for 30 divines because i think i can sell it for 60 back on standard and double my money.

perhaps it just doesnt make sense for anyone to be holding divines when the music stops and so the dynamic switches from a fairly universal "i wanna get rich and have all the divines" to "quick let me get rid of all my divines"?


again thats purely speculation, i dont have any data to back that up its just vague maybes based on anecdotal experiences of player behaviour. you can be sure standard players will attempt to manipulate whatever they can for an economic advantage as the league transitions. price fixing is obviously rampant in poe.

I expected mage blood I think its new price is a combo of less being opened via boxes and keys combined with the devaluing of divines in general.

"

Saltychipmunk wrote:

I expected mage blood I think its new price is a combo of less being opened via boxes and keys combined with the devaluing of divines in general.

yeah ur probably right, both factors are pushing against it.


i was horrified when i saw it hit 80, i bought 2 right away of course lol, matching his and hers blue and pink versions naturally. but i thought it was bad news for the game for its current flagship chase unique to be trivialised in such a way. its good to see it going back up.