Harvest - A statistical analysis, Too reliant on TFT

Note: My OP has been moved to a comment at the time of writing this. A more thorough test was conducted and my stance has shifted slightly. I have re-written this post to share the data and my current stance.


TL;DR/Summary:
I feel TFT is more necessary than before 3.14, if one intends to craft an item using harvest crafts.
This is due to farming harvest being horrificaly inefficient. It takes excessive amounts of time and currency to run, and the costs more than one can buy the craft for on TFT if one is farming for something specific(unless they sell crafts on TFT as they go to offset it).

Please consider rebalancing the frequency of all crafts, particularly Keep Prefix/Suffix which is an incredible craft to help casual players make decent gear while being unable to print out mirror worthy items left and right.

Also find a way to address TFT being the only proper avenue for trading crafts. Something like making harvest crafts tradable with a 'seal' cost the way beasts and prophecies are would work perfectly. If this could make the craft too accessible, then make the item required for sealing them either cost a lot, or be some sort of relatively uncommon drop(do NOT resort to just making the craft rare, because this hurts SSF/low-trading type players disproportionally).
If there's a risk-free way to trade crafts built into the game, people will gravitate towards that even if it costs a little bit more.


Alternatively, Please look at adding a completely new mechanic with a future league or PoE2 that gives casual players a way to craft gear for themselves to get builds started that cannot be abused to make flawless mirror worthy items.


Full Post:

I have now run 128 harvests since 3.14. Here is the breakdown:

Round one: Less data tracked.
40ish maps ran
30 harvests found. Primarily Haewark

Round two: More data tracked
Total Haewark Harvests: 76
Total Proxima Harvests: 4
Other Harvests: 18
Total Maps Run: 117

Total gained from TFT sales: 16ex 350c
900~c used to force harvests
Profit: 7~ex 350c around 10c per harvest, with selling on TFT

Reforge: (default reforge) x (reforge more common) Round 2=98 Harvests
Life: 53 x 58
Defence: 55 x 61
Physical: 35 x 44
Attack: 38 x 52
Speed: 14 x 19
Caster: 41 x 51
Critical: 15 x 19
Chaos: 41 x 41
Lightning: 32 x 58
Fire: 55 x 84
Cold: 38 x 53
Keep Prefix: 6 +Round 2=128 harvests
Keep Suffix: 4 +Round 2=128 harvests
Less Likely: 25
More Likely: 26
Reroll: Round 2=98 harvests
Prefix: 19
Suffix: 4
All: 36
Jewel Implicit: Round 2=98 harvests
Cluster: 12
Abyss: 11
Standard: 32
Sockets: Round 2=98 harvests
6 socket: 3
6 link: 0
White Socket: 0
Misc: Round 2=98 harvests
Div Card Gamble 0 or double: 20 found, 10 card profit
Upgrade Scarab: 3
Upgrade Essence: 6
Upgrade Oil: 1
5% Awaken Gem: 2
Gift of Goddess: 4
Augments: Round 1+2=128 harvests
Life: 0
Defence: 0
Physical: 0
Caster: 0
Chaos: 0
Lightning: 0
Fire: 0
Cold: 0
Critical: 0
Speed: 0
Attack: 0
Remove Non-Add: Round 1+2=128 harvests
Life: 0
Defence: 0
Physical: 0
Caster: 0
Chaos: 0
Lightning: 0
Fire: 0
Cold: 0
Critical: 0
Speed: 0
Attack: 0
Tier 4 Seeds: Round 1+2=128 harvests
Synthesise:
+1 at 117 harvests in Haewark
+1 at 124 harvests in Vastir + Sacred Blossom
Influence: 0
Fracture: 0


Conclusion:
Augments, T4 seeds, Keep Pref/Suff and Remove Non-Adds were made too rare.
I have run 128 harvests for these mods, and gotten:
-0 augments
-0 remove non-adds
-6 Keep Pref
-4 Keep Suff
-2 T4 seeds(which 1 every 50ish is.. sort of okayish, I guess?)

When you consider that crafting a good(Not mirror tier. 100ex value) item with Keep Pref/Suff, you're likely to need 30ish on average for most items. That means running over 300 harvests, spending over 3000 chaos, or instead running over 1500 maps.
At 2.5 minutes per map, you're looking at over 62.5 hours, or over 21 days if you can play 3h/day. Note that 2.5 minutes is low because it includes looting time, storing things, taking out/alching maps, etc.

If you want to farm up your own harvests to craft things you need, have fun. It's incredibly inefficient, I believe time would be better spent looking for fossils or making currency through other methods to buy what you need on the market.



HOWEVER:
This is where I take the biggest issue. To me TFT seems even more necessary than before 3.13.

Something like Keep Prefix is so rare that the cost to force harvests is about the same(technically slightly higher) than simply buying the craft on TFT.
In many cases it's FAR cheaper to buy the craft on TFT: such as Aug Influence, which by my results would require around 500 maps with harvest on nearly every map. That is 5,000 chaos, or 2,500 maps if you don't force harvest. Meanwhile Aug Influence can be bought on TFT for about half this. (this metic is based on the rarity of T4 seeds combined with the fact it could drop reforge influence, etc)

Likewise, Even on standard with the current very slow market due to the new league release, I did still make around a 10ex profit. Compared to what I usually make this isn't half bad.

TFT remains the best way for me to make money, and is an even better way to craft my items than before 3.14(I primarily farmed my own crafts in 3.13)


I feel like the overall goal of trying to address TFT being required for harvest was a failure, and has actually been made worse.
I can not farm my own crafts anymore. It takes more time AND costs more.
So I am left buying them from others.


In regards to the severity of the nerf:
0 Augments and Remove-Nons in 128 harvests? Yikes. Enough said.



Note: For those curious, my priority when selecting plots:
T4 Seeds
Reforge Rare
Jewel Implicits - since they sell
10 random crafts - it started lower, but actually seemed quite good due to the low number of crafts per plot now.
Modify an item Lucky
Div Card Sacrifice/Sockets(Color, Number, Link)/Gem/Offerings
Life/Fire/Cold/etc.

When plots were pretty comparable overall, I went with whatever had the highest number of crafts.


A thank you to Aim_Deep for providing the 560c that started Round 2 of this experiment.

working as intended

A LOT too nerfed. :D

Dude even before nerf I didnt get ANY "remove non-influence for influence" a tier 4. did a shit load pretty much lvled to 95 last league all in atoll.

Those tier 4s you gotta trade for apparently. SSF no go unless no life maybe.

I said it after I read the harvest rework notes. 12c is 10c more than you are going to get from the harvest. Rather than risk scammers I would pay the 2 ex for affix craft and scrub.

So far in harvest I have got nothing but chaos scrubs and 4 links. Not even gem upgrades etc. The thing is these would be great for levelling/gearing but by the time you get them you will have no need of them.

Hey hit me up if you need 720c. I'll give it to you if you continue this science project/data w/it

Its purpose completely defeated now.

Its not a crafting anymore.
Just another rng driven casino gimmick.

No idea for harvest but i forget the league name, the one focus around opening boxes. Anyways that shit feels nerfed as hell, i had a pretty big quantity roll multiple times and literally 1-2 items would drop IN TOTAL. That shit feels nerfed as hell, i dont even want to roll boxes now.

Yeah it's gutted a bit too much. I was fine with them removing the targeted annuls and add/remove. But so far haven't found no reroll prefix/suffixes, which is a bit silly.

Reducing the no. of crafts per seed was too op and hit the nail in the coffin

Harvest is no longer worth it.

Not only does it take WAY too long, the chance for getting good crafts is so low, it's a complete waste of our time. You're better off just running maps and buying gear with the currency you drop there. I've been skipping them entirely.

The excitement I used to feel when seeing a Harvest pop up in my map is completely gone. It's the same as the other league mechanics. They nerf it so substantially, that it becomes a chore that wastes time instead of something that you look forward to seeing. I used to love seeing things pop up in my map, but nowadays I just "meh" and move on.