Think i know why RNG is inconsistent in PoE
" This is still not how RNG works. As long as there is no integrated "bad luck protection" ( Which there isnt), your whole point is nonsense. |
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Can you please do an experiment on throwing dice, explaining me how/why it's "inconsistent", and why you don't get a six every sixth throw? And why/how you get lucky and unlycky streaks there too?
Looking forward to the explanation. Bring me some coffee and I'll bring you a smile.
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" That isn't paradoxical, that is a sentence that contradicts itself. It also isn't in line with what is known about math, Bernoulli trials, and the geometric distribution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution Remove Horticrafting station storage limit.
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" You atomatically accept, that algorithm, written by GGG is true rng. Think its not entirelly correct to view it that way. Got curious and did a little experiment: Generated random number between 1 and 6, 10000 times (https://www.random.org/integers/), formatted in one line and did search on lucky streaks: 1111 appeared six times, 11111 appeared only once (in a line of 10000 numbers). Never said that lucky streaks arent possible, just very unlikely. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke
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Here is an example:
Took the same line of 10000 numbers and did a quick search of How many time 1 is followed by 1 and how many times by either 2,3,4,5 or 6. 1 and 1 appeared 249 times 1 followed by other number - 1399 times. If i rolled a successful number 1 and had to bet if it will roll 1 again or not, by betting no, i would win more often than lose. In the end, what i mean is that by doing some simple patterns you could cut your losses. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke
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as people said, you dont know what RNG mean and how it works. [Removed by Support]
you could have a billon negative outcome in a row or billion good ones. Its RNG, did you ever heard about lottery? |
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" Ofcourse this works, i m using it for years. It is not some kind of magic, simply if your chance to roll 0 is 50% and your chance to roll 1 is 50% If you roll 0 4 times in row, you can make pretty safe bet that next roll is going to be 1, much safer than going for another 0 People misunderstand how this works, it is not that your chance to roll 1 became higher, if it was coin you could not measure one side being magically more heavy, it is just that rolling 0 5 times in row is much less likely than rolling it 4 times followed by rolling 1. Now is it possible to roll 0 6 times in row? Yes but you can calculate that happens only in 62 coin flips on average. while 4 takes just 16 coin flips on average. btw Gambling is not analogue at all, because for example your chance to roll 5 apples is rigged to 0.000000000000000001% not 50% for each apple and casino can set it to 100% any time it wants so you will roll 5 apples million times in row. This is why you can not use the same principle in casino... Now push it to 10 heads in row (in our case destroy 10 gems in row with vaal) and your chance to upgrade 11. gem is extremely more likely, not because your upgrade chance is now 99% but because your chance to fail 11 times in row is extremely rare occurance. Now few things: There is no fair coin involved in the game, there is no true rng ingame ^ and both only give more power to this approach. In math world with perfect rng and fair coins it could indeed be that your chance to roll head number 100 is same as during the first coin toss. We do not live in such world tho. We live in world of patterns and people that see patterns are the ones that do well in it. What people commit here is "Imagine world where cows are as smart as human and teach the moo language at local university" and that is why we should not eat cows in this world. Yeah the issue with that is that we do not live in such world so the argument fails. Math is not reality, math is our try at understanding it and math does change, improve and grows weekly, for any discipline of reason has to be able to adapt to latest findings. What you do here is to make calculation with "perfect gass, pefectly stable temperature, perfectly round object" and then wonder why does it not work in real world with water vapor+tenis ball and outdoors under hot sun with cold eastern wind blowing on your gass chamber. I feel pretty, Oh, so pretty,
I feel pretty, and witty and gay, And I pity Any girl who isn’t me today! | |
" It IS true RNG. If it's truly random? Hardly, as it's generated, directly or indirectly by humans. But your whole premise is wrong. You DO get (un)lucky streaks when numbers are truly random too. It happens every day, everywhere - all the time. Hell, there's even humans out there being struck by lightning 4 times in their lives. As my math teacher in college used to say: "If random wasn't random, it wouldn't be random". Read that as you'd like. You can do all the experiments in the world, but as you're knowledge about probability seems somewhat lacking, I don't think your experiments will get you any closer some whatever it is you are searching for. " Do they? Well, it's called "The law of large numbers". Bring me some coffee and I'll bring you a smile. Last edited by Phrazz#3529 on Feb 2, 2021, 12:08:36 PM
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" Thank you. Was starting to feel like talking to a wall, especially the post before you was quite ingorant, got tired of this. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke
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Told you not to try.
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