Path of Exile 1 Gameplay Help and Discussion - Orb of Fusing - How does it work? - Forum

I believe for Wolfram Alpha you would input: binomial distribution n = 43 p = 1/1100 but W.A. says the probability of "at least one success" is 3.835%, not 3.7% as raics said. Not sure if that is a computational error on raics' side or WolframAlpha side or if I completely misremembered what the binomial distribution means and just very coincidentally happened to get an answer whose name makes sense and which approximates raics' Need game info? Check out the Wiki at: https://www.poewiki.net/ Contact support@grindinggear.com for account issues. Check out How to Report Bugs + Post Images at: https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/18347	Posted by adghar#1824 on Aug 5, 2016, 2:23:44 PM Quote this Post
. Last edited by Entropic_Fire#0222 on Oct 26, 2016, 9:39:32 PM	Posted by Entropic_Fire#0222 on Aug 5, 2016, 4:21:33 PM Quote this Post
If there are people who can get 6l in a few fusings it should be obvious that those worst case scenarios can happen too where you have to spend thousands of fusings for the same result.	Posted by kompaniet#2874 on Aug 5, 2016, 4:34:57 PM Quote this Post
" Entropic_Fire wrote: raics is that the formula to find exactly 1 success with the given parameters? My bad, it's actually a much simpler problem, to get the probability for a success in 43 tries you just need to invert the chance for 42 failures in a row. So it's 3,75% for 43 tries, 36,48% for 500 tries, 59,69% for 1000 tries and 83,77% for 2000, which sounds about right. Wish the armchair developers would go back to developing armchairs. ◄[www.moddb.com/mods/balancedux]► ◄[www.moddb.com/mods/one-vision1]►	Posted by raics#7540 on Aug 5, 2016, 5:18:50 PM Quote this Post
" adghar wrote: ChanBalam: You're misunderstanding viperesque. The rolls are not equally weighted (i.e. you said "if it is 1 in 6" but it is not 1 in 6). Viperesque did specify that the community does not know the exact odds; 1/1250 is a guessing estimate. A guesstimate, if you will. You should instead think of a 1250 sided die, and only 1 side reads 6. Let's say 250 sides of that die read 1, maybe 500 read 2, 250 read 3, 200 read 4, and 49 read 5. If you roll a 6 on the first socket, the other sockets are irrelevant (no rolls are made on them because all sockets have already been linked). If you roll a 1 then any 6 you roll is wasted, because only 5 sockets remain. I believe what happens then if you roll a 6 is to make it a 5L, but it might just reroll. I'm pretty sure that has no effect on the actual probability (it will do that weird door switch paradox thing though). That clears it up nicely thanks! "Gratitude is wine for the soul. Go on. Get drunk." Rumi US Mountain Time Zone	Posted by ChanBalam#4639 on Aug 5, 2016, 6:14:21 PM Quote this Post
" DerDave wrote: I still feel it should somehow slightly increase the chance of linking an item the more fusings you use on it. Not much, just slightly. Mainly to not feel like you "wasted" thousands of fusings if you're really unlucky. Vorici's 6Ling is a great way to avoid that feeling. You pay slightly over the odds, but avoid all risk. Have you done something awesome with [url=http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/Sire_of_Shards]Sire of Shards[/url]? PM me and tell me all about it! Last edited by viperesque#7817 on Aug 5, 2016, 6:54:41 PM	Posted by viperesque#7817 on Aug 5, 2016, 6:54:17 PM Quote this Post
" raics wrote: " adghar wrote: Yes. I'm told that that's why you observe fewer backwards 5Ls in the market; they're slightly less likely to occur than forwards 5Ls. Yeah, the percentage of "1-5" items relative to the number of "5-1" and "5" items is exactly the same as your chance to roll "1" on first socket. The knowledge has a practical value too, if we assume your chance to roll 1 is 25%, that means an item with 6 sockets has a 25% better chance to get a 5L than one with 5 sockets (not to mention a chance for an accidental 6L). Also interesting to know for me is whether a 0 link on a 6 socket item is as likely as a 6 link. Happens quite rarely, I saw maybe 2 while throwing the 2600 fus on my 6 socket, which leads me to the assumption it could be almost the same probability. Anyway, I feel always a little down when I see a 0 link because I think to myself that this could have also been a 6 link :p	Posted by DerDave#5398 on Aug 7, 2016, 5:25:28 AM Quote this Post
" DerDave wrote: Also interesting to know for me is whether a 0 link on a 6 socket item is as likely as a 6 link. Happens quite rarely, I saw maybe 2 while throwing the 2600 fus on my 6 socket, which leads me to the assumption it could be almost the same probability. Hard to say, because we don't know how likely is it to roll "1" and it adds up when you apply the same probability 6 times. So, if the chance to roll it is, say, 25%, that would mean the chance for a zero link is 0,024% which would actually make a 6-link almost four times as likely. If it's 33%, the chance would be 0,12% which would make it a bit more likely than a 6 link. Wish the armchair developers would go back to developing armchairs. ◄[www.moddb.com/mods/balancedux]► ◄[www.moddb.com/mods/one-vision1]►	Posted by raics#7540 on Aug 7, 2016, 5:59:28 AM Quote this Post