General Discussion - [Math] Probability of entering Beta - Forum

:( im not a patient person FOR THE DARK GODS! IGN: Monokuma_Joestar	Posted by Lust#0341 on Aug 22, 2011, 10:12:43 AM Quote this Post
" Phrexis wrote: time to improve my probability! I see what you did here :>	Posted by senoxat#2658 on Aug 22, 2011, 11:12:21 AM Quote this Post
just applied gl to everyone!	Posted by jbrawler#6509 on Aug 22, 2011, 11:13:22 AM Quote this Post
Probability theory here is more appropriate. Yeeeaaa :)	Posted by lowby#2495 on Aug 22, 2011, 11:23:15 AM Quote this Post
crap i always thought that chances were bigger :/	Posted by morillo#4807 on Aug 22, 2011, 11:47:00 AM Quote this Post
14% looks good enough for me :)	Posted by Plobo#1237 on Aug 22, 2011, 11:57:24 AM Quote this Post
I'm going to start posting everyday now!	Posted by shortcake31#6677 on Aug 22, 2011, 12:07:49 PM Quote this Post
" Dennder wrote: In no way i wish to insult topic starter, but the math is completely wrong ) a) as one of devteam member stated active users have 10 times better chance b) for each key assigned chances of others increase c) for each new member chances of others decrease d) for each new active member chances of others decrease even more e) you simply have absolutely no idea how many users there are, since this information is closed One thing is calculable, that is 2 keys each 30 mins = 96 keys a day. Imagine there are 50000 users as u stated, then it will take >520 days to satisfy them all (almost year and half). By that time there will be official release already. So, people, RELAX :-D I've already answered these, but I guess they got buried somewhere along the 37 pages. I assume there are as many people registering as there are people getting into beta. Also, we can know how many people are registered overall by looking at the ID of a newly created account. Back when I made this thread, it was around 46000. Also, when I made this thread, there was only one timer, not one for veterans and one for random. It was also a 15 minute timer, not 35. With all this in mind, the math does work, but I made a couple assumptions that won't work through time. The OP is outdated. Fourier - Level 41 Templar (Hardcore League) FourierII - Level 55 Duelist (Hardcore League) HC Ladder Rank: 7	Posted by Fourier#4143 on Aug 22, 2011, 12:11:02 PM Quote this Post
This thread should be updated and stickied. Make an account Forget about the whole game Get a beta key ???? Profit!!!!	Posted by Filthy#5718 on Aug 22, 2011, 12:19:06 PM Quote this Post
profit !!	Posted by nikitas#3655 on Aug 22, 2011, 12:41:39 PM Quote this Post