The Chisel Bubble: Using currency to roll maps, vs buying maps
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There are lots of mapping guides out there, but one thing I've noticed about them is that they have this self-found ethos woven into them, and that's not really min-max or realistic anymore. poe.trade makes it easy to trade for maps, and when you have that as a competing alternative to the usual methods of converting your currency into maps, it fundamentally alters the way you look at rolling your maps.
First and foremost, it really simplifies the whole process. Under the conventional self-found method, rolling maps is complicated by all kinds of hidden droprate stuff, so it takes huge amounts of trial and error to roll maps properly unless you heed the advice of other players... who are hopefully not drawing conclusions off a small sample size. But with mapbuying, knowing how to roll your maps is just a calculation, based on current trade values of maps. (And no, I am not believer in the "quantity doesn't affect map drops" tinfoil du jour.) Here's the calculation for Alchs. First off, Trans+Aug is, for all intents and purposes, free, so your maps get a certain amount of quantity for free. How much for free? If you refer to the map prefix and suffix guides on the PoE wiki, you can calculate that the average bonus for map affixes is... Prefix (all tiers): 13.16% quantity, 0% packsize Suffix (low tier): 14.00% quantity, 1.82% packsize Suffix (mid tier): 15.28% quantity, 5.06% packsize Suffix (top tier): 15.59% quantity, 5.99% packsize This means the average magic map has... Low tier: 27.16% quantity and 1.82% packsize for an effective 29.5% drop increase Mid tier: 28.44% quantity and 5.06% packsize for an effective 34.9% drop increase Top tier: 28.75% quantity and 5.99% packsize for an effective 36.5% drop increase The average rare map has 2.25 prefixes and 2.25 suffixes (60% chance of 4 affixes, 30% chance of 5 affixes, 10% chance of 6 affixes). This means the average rare map has... Low tier: 61.11% quantity and 4.10% packsize for an effective 67.7% drop increase Mid tier: 63.99% quantity and 11.39% packsize for an effective 82.7% drop increase Top tier: 64.69% quantity and 13.48% packsize for an effective 86.9% drop increase This means that Alching a map, instead of Trans+Aug, gives you... Low tier: 1.677/1.295 = 29.5% more drops Mid tier: 1.827/1.349 = 35.4% more drops Top tier: 1.869/1.365 = 36.9% more drops Finally, in order for the value of those drops to be equal to the value of the Alch, the map itself needs to be worth... Low tier: 1/0.295 = 3.39 Alchs (meaning: never Alch low tier) Mid tier: 1/0.354 = 2.82 Alchs (so if the map isn't worth at least 3 Alchs, do not Alch it) Top tier: 1/0.369 = 2.71 Alchs (so Alch all of your top tier maps) As it turns out, this means mapping strategy differs slightly by league. In Talisman SC currently, it is not worth it to Alch any map Tier 8 or below, and even Tier 9 is borderline; Tier 10 and up are worth Alching. (These maps are not worth Alching because trading for new maps is cheaper, and saving Alchs for later tiers is more productive.) In Talisman HC, there is a similar situation to Talisman SC but it's all at -1 tier; Tier 7 or below isn't worth it, Tier 8 is borderline, Tiers 9 and up are worth it. In Standard, another -1 tier; Tier 6 or below isn't worth it, Tier 7 is borderline, and Tier 8 and up are worth it. A similar calculation can be done for Chisels. Specifically, this calculation is for the first chisel used (0% quality to 5%). Mid tier: (1.6899*1.1139)/(1.6399*1.1139) = 1.6899/1.6399 = 1.0305; 1/.0305 = 32.8; so map + 1 Alch > 32.8 Chisels to be worth it Top tier: 1.6969/1.6469 = 1.304; 1/.0304 = 32.9; so map + 1 Alch > 32.9 Chisels to be worth it In Talisman SC, Tiers 11 and below are not worth Chiseling (!!!), Tier 12 is borderline, and Tiers 13 and up are worth it. It's exactly the same in Standard (not -2 this time). In Talisman HC, -1 again; Tier 10 and below not worth it, Tier 11 borderline, Tiers 12 and up worth it. So why is it that there is such a large difference between the economically sound course of action I describe above, and the conventional wisdom and map-guide advice of Alching around Tier 6+ and Chiseling around Tier 9+? Well, simply put, mapbuying is underutilized (especially in temporary softcore leagues). The typical player these days spends far more currency rolling maps than they should. Whether it's because they don't know any better or have an unnatural loathing of trading for maps, a majority of players throw their currency away on lower maps as if they're participating in some kind of self-found challenge, which creates low supply and high demand for mapping currency, and when they run those maps they get excess maps of lower tiers to trade away, creating a high supply of those... and a lower demand for them, assuming they successfully progress into higher map tiers. This creates a situation where currency can buy you a lot more maps than it really should, which makes it foolish to actually use that currency on maps yourself. So if you've been getting this feeling that the price for Chisels is too damn high, and you're sick and tired of having to trade for them to run your mid-tier maps... well, you're right. The price is too damn high, and you should stop using them on your mid-tier maps. Trade them away instead, you'll get a lot more bang for your buck. At least for the moment, there's a Chisel bubble, and perhaps it's time for it to burst. Until then: Stone Hammer formula. It's worth it. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Jan 19, 2016, 2:01:48 AM Last bumped on Mar 19, 2017, 8:14:33 AM
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Many people aren't efficient. Maybe it is more out of convenience or they just like to gamble and roll their own maps. Basically you are probably wasting currency rolling low~mid level maps but people do it anyway.
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Interesting post, as often with you.
Few people have knowledge in statistics. Also many people just don't like trading. Ranger builds list: /917964
When two witches watch two watches, which witch watches which watch? If the witches watching watches watch the same watch while you watch which witch watches which watch, they switch watches; then, the watch switching witches watch which watch you watch. Watching witches watch watches is not for the faint of heart... |
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Re: Statistics
It might be worth noting that I did some estimation, and the precise average quantity might be slightly different. But my numbers should be within an Alteration or so, which means pretty much the same conclusions. Maybe someone even more statistically hardcore could add precision. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Jan 19, 2016, 3:19:39 AM
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Likely because players think chiseling maps has a significant effect on map drops and while the hammer recipe helps, the drop rate of chisels is still abysmally low.
Are you making any assumptions about map IIQ vs chance to drop a map of X tier relative to the base map? " Well that's pretty surprising and here I was, chiseling T10's when my chisel tab got filled. I know many players will chisel desirable maps like gorge and plat despite not chiseling any other in the same tiers. There are very vital details players do not understand (From a sc solo perspective but it should be somewhat applicable to other leagues) -Having even a small amount IIQ will basically make it so it's worthwhile to alch even low tier maps assuming you do not need to chaos very often on a bad roll. -Selling desirable maps is the way to go. Gorge sells for 5 chaos whilst most other t9's sell for 2. -Selling T13-15 and buying T9-t12 is the most cost efficient way to sustain maps and the exp/min in some situations may not much less due to clear time and map difficulty. T12-T15 will spawn some incredibly painful affixes that often mandate a reroll or will put you at risk of death. A single death past level 94 ish is potentially several exalts wasted for nothing. -Having a build that can fast, clear safely and do a wide range of map affixes is a big part of the equation, trading and map resource optimization aside -It's incredibly stupid and misguided to believe the only way to progress high levels to to continuously buy and run T12-15 maps, this is in fact the worst and and most expensive way to sustain maps unless you have several people rotating and have a well organized party that clears very fast and very safely. Can you calculate the effectiveness of vaal fragmenets and domination? As reference for SC - the prices of T12 + varies a lot simply because it's hard to find someone with more than a few: T7(74): .5C T8(75): 1C T9(76): 2C T10(77): 4C T11(78): 7C T12(79): 12C T13(80): 20C T14(81): 40C T15(82): 1ex IGN: Arlianth Check out my LA build: 1782214 Last edited by Nephalim on Jan 19, 2016, 3:43:45 AM
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I can't calculate Domination. I could calculate Onslaught if you wanted.
Vaal Fragments are essentially chisels, but more expensive. So if a map is with more than 32 Sacrifice shards, it's with it. So basically T14+ in your hierarchy. Shards are basically bubbling the same way chisels are. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Jan 19, 2016, 4:00:09 AM
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I have no clue how you figure your value of an alch. Alchs are 250:1 ex alts are 640:1 ex. An alch is only worth 2.56 alts. They are practically worthless. The increased chance to drop maps makes it worth it 100% of the time to alch. As for chisels, I can't speak for other people but I run all the tier 7 and 8 maps I get on a MF character. I get more than enough chisels either directly or through the gavel recipe to always chisel up my tier 10 and above maps.
Creator of the Praxis ring.
Want to stop power creep? Gut crit chance and crit multi. |
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I liked your post but there are some obvious flaws in your logic.
First in this line : Top tier: 1.869/1.365 = 36.9% more drops These values should be subtracted from each other and not divided, because the value of your starting map is 1 not 1.365. this should at least be the value of the map that you should be alching : ~1/(.869-.365)=1.95 alchs Second, you are assuming all the extra map drops will be the same tier as the starting map. Imagine all the map drop rates regardless of their tiers are linear with effective quantity for a second ( which isn't : third flaw ). As a result, on average and over the course of time, whether you buy the map or alch the map, you will get the same amount of +1 and +2 and returns. However, if you decide to run your maps blue, you are wasting much more time moving to the next tier of maps. You are gonna need to clear more number of maps to achieve the same number of higher tier maps than you needed if you were alching them. Third, your calculations are based on an effective drop increase which (P*Q) which is not accurate. Because map quantity affects everything rares/bosses/etc but pack size only affects magic packs and white mobs. So the actual increase in map drops is skewed toward Q value more than P value. Hence, rare map drops are higher than what you estimated. Last edited by Mephisto_n on Jan 19, 2016, 6:04:54 AM
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" People generally have low-mid tier maps in abundant if you sell off your higher tier maps. I was wondering how does it work if you don't invest in low-mid tier maps to break into higher tier maps. Basically you get less higher tier maps for same amount of time invest in running the maps. It might be more cost efficient but not more time efficient. |
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Personally, I’m not sure to understand what was the initial question.
Let’s take a very simple example. I have a white map, level 8. It’s my last map. I also have an alch, and there is another level 8 map (also white) for sale, for 1 alch. So is the question: is it better to throw the alch in the map, for augmenting my chances to get my next map, or just run it blue (assuming it’s free) and directly buy a new one with my alch? If yes, I don’t understand how any conclusion can be drawn without taking into account the map drop rate. Certainly, the answer to the question is different if a map drops on average 10 other maps, or only 1 (without even talking of their level). Or is the question: is it better to run my single alched map, or run the 2 blue maps, for the same price? In that case indeed the answer is independent of the map drop rate, but unless I’m missing something, with the second map you have the equivalent of +100% quantity, vs +30 or 40% for the single yellow, so the answer is relatively obvious. If you don’t take time into account, I mean. As already pointed out above, certainly the most relevant factor here is how you value your time vs your currency. |
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