The odds
"That is true. Luckily, a devoted forum member has been doing this here :) Closed Beta/Alpha Tester back after a 10-year hiatus.
First in the credits! |
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" Who, that guy? The one who didn't even bother to post in the forum until after he got into the Beta? =0[.]o= =^[.]^= basic (happy/amused) cheetahmoticon: Whiskers/eye/tear-streak/nose/tear-streak/eye/
whiskers =@[.]@= boggled / =>[.]<= annoyed or angry / ='[.]'= concerned / =0[.]o= confuzzled / =-[.]-= sad or sleepy / =*[.]*= dazzled / =^[.]~= wink / =~[.]^= naughty wink / =9[.]9= rolleyes #FourYearLie |
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It has been awhile for me at least. Not sure if I will bother any more at this point.
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does the timer go alphabetical? There seems to be patterns in the names being drawn. Btw can anyone give tips on writing a good review? Planning to make PoE my first subject.
Respectful and polite gamers are not altogether dead. Thank you and have a nice day.
A man of Faith. A man of Purpose. A man of Truth. |
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Worst case scenario if there are 288 chances per day and 164,000 possible users:
Each chance 1/164,000 Odds of not being picked per chance: 163,999/164,000 Odds of not being picked per day: (163,999/164,000)^288 = 99.82% Odds of not being picked after 1 week: (163,999/164,000)^(288*7) = 98.78% Odds of not being picked after 4 weeks: (163,999/164,000)^(288*28) = 95.2% Assuming forum user chance is 10/164,000: Odds of not being picked after 4 weeks: (163,990/164,000)^(288*28) = 61.16% |
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o maaan that's a slim chance
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Yeah, but those are truly worst-case numbers. The base chance is probably closer to 1/130,000.
The forum user chance is near impossible to estimate without making up numbers, since we have no idea how many accounts are included in that group. Since each forum user account is getting 10x the base, one's chances aren't really 10/totalAccounts. Its more like 10/x, where x = forumUsers * 10 + (totalAccounts - forumUsers) I offered a longer, more detailed explanation of this in the previously-linked thread. Closed Beta/Alpha Tester back after a 10-year hiatus.
First in the credits! |
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as i say i just have to hope and wait ^^
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the people here are really nice they some times post free keys on the forums just keep eye out and be quick, thats how i got mine, hang in there :)
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Considering how much luck I normally have with lotteries, I'm not holding my breath.
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