Map Drop Experiment w/ 70's and 71's

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AgnosiousD wrote:

I would presume that the propensity for a lvl 78 map to generate a +1 map
is equal to the propensity of a lvl 70 map to generate a +1 map, this may not
be the case.

GGG already stated that replenishing your map pool gets more difficult from 74-79 and near impossible from 80-82 (especially in comparison to 68-73 maps), so we should not estimate the chances on a +1 or on par map are equal on high- and low tier maps.

OP is definitely honest ;)

But he draws a different conclusion. I would tend to agree that with your analysis as far as this run. It was worth the 2 days of investment and established a solid and base of +1 maps to run while simultaneously replenishing much of the 70/71 pool.

It did not provide for a sufficient base to run a +2 pool.

Where I differ is that I doubt strongly that as the maps increase in level there will be as many +1's and +2s.

45 is a very small sample size, and +2's are very limited in dropability, so let's ignore them.

In our small sample size, we then have between 5 levels that can drop (or 4 in the case of 70's): 68, 69, 70, 71 and 72 (for our 71 inputs).

I actually can go back to segregate the 70 and 71 outputs to know for certain, but the distribution across the available options per map level seems... pretty even....

If that continues as we progress in level, we will need to run more and more inputs to get the same number of +1 outputs, as the number of output options increase.

So, if 50 is a viable 70's input to get a sustainable +1 base, I'd expect that that number increases as we ascend the map levels.

I could very well see that in order to reliably sustain a 77 map base and possibly create a 78 map base, significantly more would be required...

Or am I thinking about this incorrectly?

prescben,

since ones total pool of maps is always depleating as one improves their
levels of maps, there will have to be a point of reckoning where one is forced
to run lesser maps to rebuild a base pool.

85% of 100, and then 85% of the result, over and over again eventually results
in an empty pool. but it results in an empty pool pretty slowly, so one will
have to face lesser maps to cover the depletion.

as the propensity of a map to drop a higher level map goes down with the level
of the base map... 78's dropping a +2 less often than 70's as GGG has set up.

this 85% return will get more and more exagerated with map level.

lets do a quick calc:

85% of 100 = 85
85% of 85 = 72
85% of 72 = 61
85% of 61 = 52

so if 85% is a reasonable estimate of better maps returned vs maps input at level
70, one will reach ~50% depletion of total map pool (halflife) within 4 cycles of maps.

but this is not accounting for the propensity for a +1 or +2 being reduced with map
level input; cycle 1 is lvl 70, cycle 4 is lvl 74, by that point the propensity should be lower than 85% returned better than input, therefore the halflife of the pool will be shorter and shorter as the map lvl progresses. I wonder how much shorter?

we could find a reasonable estimate for the difference in propensity (am I even using the
right word?) for a level 74 if you ran another 45 of em :P, then of course do 45 lvl 78's
and we could have a decent series of points on the line graph to connect and ballpark a
curve.

the actual depletion series will look more like:
85% of 100 = 85 (lvl 70)
80% of 85 = 57 (lvl 71)*
75% of 57 = 43 (lvl 72)*
70% of 43 = 30 (lvl 73)*

*numbers other than 85% of 100 at map lvl 70 are for illustration purposes and
not derived from any stats, or anything... pure illustration of how the system
could look under a lower propensity of +1 and +2 per higher map level.

clearly the halflife of the map pool comes sooner at higher map lvls, but what
is the rate? we don't know yet, we need some more data points.

if one loses 5% return per map lvl beyond lvl 70, even at that low a change in return
rate brings us to halflife in just over 2 cycles, rather than 4.

high level maps are a hell of a lot of work to sustain, we could find out how
much work they are to sustain if we had more data points :D

*also, only accounting for "better maps" and not considering HOW MUCH better the
maps are, the +2 may be rare, but it is a large improvement to the pools level.
the +2 maps returned are worth 9 of the input maps in vendor trades and has not
been accounted for yet. (not sure where to start with that yet, feeling lazy)